This weekend on our SiriusXM Fantasy we're continuing to talk about hard hit rate and it's usefulness when evaluating starting pitchers. Much like its correlation with batting average and HR/FB rate for offensive players, hard hit rate allowed is strongly correlated with BABIP allowed and HR/FB rate against, each of which have a big impact to a player's ERA and/or xFIP. Below is a list of some players who exhibited strong hard hit rates allowed in 2019 and the Fantistics Draft Advisory Program is higher than industry-wide consensus value, meaning they present an opportunity for value on draft day.
Fantistics Draft Advisory Program Player Notes:
Eduardo Rodriguez - In what was generally been a disappointing season for the Red Sox, Rodriguez has turned in another consistent season, and while his numbers aren't considered elite (3.81 ERA, 4.10 xFIP, 9.4 K/9) he collected 19 wins on the season thanks to good run support. His strikeout rate is a bit lower then last season but to balance that out he posted a career high 49% groundball rate. Rodriguez may not bloom into the elite starter many believed he would become, but he has become reliable as his career 4.04 ERA and 4.03 FIP pretty much indicate exactly what you are going to get year in and year out. - dbertolino | There is some upside in the 317 BABIP based on his only 29% hard hit rate allowed and 86 MPH average velocity against. | 2019 BABIP: 0.317(0.016)| SwStr%: 12%(1%)| Avg FB: 93.1(-0.2)| FB/Chg Split: 93(5.8)| HR Distance: 403ft(0)| Strand%: 0.78(0.04)| HardHit%: 28.7%(0.8%)| Avg Velocity: 86(-1.7)| Elevation%: 9.1(-4.3)| Barrels%: 5.9(-0.8)| HR/FB%: 13%(2%)| GB Rate: 0.49(0.10)| xFIP: 4.10(0.29)| xSLG: 0.380(-0.011)
Dinelson Lamet - Armed with a filthy slider and a fastball that sits in the high 90's MPH, Lamet offers high upside. Lamet primarily relies on his slider (or curveball, depending on where you look) and fastball, a combination that has fueled his impressive 31.7% strikeout rate. Lamet's slider owns an incredible whiffs/swing rate of 52.22% (Patrick Corbin's posted a 53.9% mark last year, and the league average is 33.8% for the pitch), and his fastball generates whiffs at a higher than average rate as well. A lack of a third pitch (an a high walk rate) has hampered Lamet's performance, but he's been experimenting with a sinker and changeup recently, and both pitches have shown flashes of legitimate potential (though the changeup has been more encouraging). Lamet probably won't offer a ton of value outside of strikeouts, but if his changeup or sinker becomes a legitimate weapon then he should be expected to break out in 2020. Sam Chinitz | 2019 BABIP: 0.311(0.050)| SwStr%: 14%(2%)| Avg FB: 96.1(1.1)| FB/Chg Split: 3.9(5.0)| HR Distance: 402ft(-2)| Strand%: 0.74(0.04)| HardHit%: 35.8%(0.5%)| Avg Velocity: 87(-0.4)| Elevation%: 14.9(0.8)| Barrels%: 8.1(0.4)| HR/FB%: 20%(5%)| GB Rate: 0.36(-0.01)| xFIP: 3.44(-0.63)| xSLG: 0.381(-0.028)
Mitch Keller - *Top 100 Prospect | Pitcher Rank- 26 Overall Grade-B Current level-MLB Expected MLB- Now 2 IP until he drops off this list, and he should reach that in early April. Keller has now made 11 starts at the major league level and the results have not been great (7.13 ERA and 1.83 WHIP). Despite the poor results there are encouraging signs for the young right-hander. His 3.77 SIERA points to his upside given his current skills. He is showing the ability to miss bats (29% K) with good control (7% BB). His strikeout rate is backed up by 11% SwStr. Keller is not going to run a .475 BABIP over the course of a full season. He does need to figure out how to get lefties out (.406 wOBA) because he not using a changeup which is a good pitch against left-handers. The Pirates rotation is not good therefore there will once again be an opportunity for Keller to learn on the fly and he should come extremely cheap on draft day next year. - PDouble | Former Grade A prospect. | 2019 BABIP: 0.475(0.475)| SwStr%: 12%(12%)| Avg FB: 95.4(95.4)| FB/Chg Split: 4.4(0.0)| HR Distance: 392ft(392)| Strand%: 0.60(0.60)| HardHit%: 35.9%(35.9%)| Avg Velocity: 87(87.2)| Elevation%: 10.5(10.5)| Barrels%: 7.6(7.6)| HR/FB%: 13%(13%)| GB Rate: 0.39(0.39)| xFIP: 3.47(-3.66)| xSLG: 0.411(-0.132)
Brandon Woodruff - There's a lot to like about Woodruff, starting with his undervaluation in fantasy circles. Over the last 2 years Woodruff's average fastball has gained 2 MPH, a rarity, and with his FB|Change split approaching the holy grail of splits (9.3), last year he induced a solid 11.6% SwStr%. With that came a increase in his K/9 to 10.6. He likes to pound the zone as his 2.2 BB/9 attests to. Although there was a slight upward shift in his GB rates, he did finish the 2nd half with a 54% GB%. He'll need that to have the type of season that his underlying skill set affords him. Should be a lot of value here in 2020 compared to his draft price. | 2019 BABIP: 0.320(0.026)| SwStr%: 12%(1%)| Avg FB: 96.3(1.0)| FB/Chg Split: 9.3(10.6)| HR Distance: 410ft(18)| Strand%: 0.75(0.03)| HardHit%: 36.2%(3.5%)| Avg Velocity: 86(-2.1)| Elevation%: 12.3(7.0)| Barrels%: 4.1(-3.0)| HR/FB%: 12%(0%)| GB Rate: 0.45(-0.09)| xFIP: 3.36(-0.26)| xSLG: 0.367(0.010)
Julio Urias - 13 MPH represents the best Fastball Changeup split in baseball. While very few pitchers even possess at coveted 10 MPH split between these pitches, Urias shatters it. This allows his 95 MPH FB to be a +2 pitch...a rarity these days. Other things we love about Urias includes his elite 13.8% SwStr% and 82% Zone Contact rate. There is considerable growth upside in his 9.6 K/9 rate. Areas that are likely to back up on him as a full time starter will be the .257 BABIP of 2019, and the small 8.8 HR/FB%. At only 23, there is lots to love here if he can stay heathy. | 2019 BABIP: 0.257(0.090)| SwStr%: 14%(-7%)| Avg FB: 95.2(2.1)| FB/Chg Split: 13.0(10.8)| HR Distance: 397ft(397)| Strand%: 0.78(-0.22)| HardHit%: 35.4%(18.7%)| Avg Velocity: 83(-2.6)| Elevation%: 17.8(5.1)| Barrels%: 4.3(4.3)| HR/FB%: 9%(9%)| GB Rate: 0.39(-0.11)| xFIP: 4.28(1.79)| xSLG: 0.324(0.000)
Charlie Morton - Morton continues to induce weaker than typical contact (34% hard hit rate), which gives rise to his 75% Strand Rate...He upped his SwStr% to 12.9% in 2019 and his 11.1 K/9 followed. Dominates at home with a .302 SLG against and continues to maintain a heavy 48% GB rate. Thrives on his FB/CH 9.5 MPH split. More of the same expected in 2020. 2019 BABIP: 0.298(0.015)| SwStr%: 13%(1%)| Avg FB: 94.4(-1.3)| FB/Chg Split: 9.5(8.3)| HR Distance: 398ft(3)| Strand%: 0.75(-0.02)| HardHit%: 34.1%(4.3%)| Avg Velocity: 87(-0.4)| Elevation%: 9.1(1.8)| Barrels%: 5.0(-0.8)| HR/FB%: 10%(-4%)| GB Rate: 0.48(0.01)| xFIP: 3.28(0.23)| xSLG: 0.340(0.000)
Marcus Stroman - Solid Mid rotation type pitcher, averages 95 pitches per game and although stuff isn't dominant, it is effective as he typically produces weaker than league average contact (34% last year). Consider that his Barrels against the last 3 years (5.1,6.3,4.1). Heavy 54% groundball pitcher.2019 BABIP: 0.307(-0.019)| SwStr%: 10%(1%)| Avg FB: 92.5(0.1)| FB/Chg Split: 5.6(9.6)| HR Distance: 384ft(-13)| Strand%: 0.76(0.14)| HardHit%: 34.2%(1.0%)| Avg Velocity: 88(-1.3)| Elevation%: 5.2(4.8)| Barrels%: 4.1(-2.2)| HR/FB%: 13%(-1%)| GB Rate: 0.54(-0.08)| xFIP: 3.99(0.77)| xSLG: 0.375(-0.009)
Jesus Luzardo - *Top 100 Prospect | Pitcher Rank- 02 Overall Grade-A Current level-MLB Expected MLB- Now Set to open in the rotation barring an awful spring. Our David Regan considers Luzardo a top 3 fantasy baseball pitching prospect (A). The 21 year old Luzardo has gone from Rookie ball to AAA in just 2 seasons. Observers have likened Luzardo to Johan Santana and Francisco Liriano, not bad comps. Along with throwing a fastball in the mid- to upper-90s, Luzardo has a nasty change-up a plus-plus pitch, one scout said and a good curveball. And his delivery is simple and smooth; he repeats it without difficulty. Grab him late in your draft as he could have an impact this season. | 2019 BABIP: 0.160(0.160)| SwStr%: 15%(15%)| Avg FB: 96.4(96.4)| FB/Chg Split: 9.7(0.0)| HR Distance: 396ft(396)| Strand%: 0.92(0.92)| HardHit%: 34.6%(34.6%)| Avg Velocity: 87(87.4)| Elevation%: 14.1(14.1)| Barrels%: 7.7(7.7)| HR/FB%: 9%(9%)| GB Rate: 0.42(0.42)| xFIP: 3.37(1.87)| xSLG: 0.298(0.060)
Hyun-Jin Ryu - Ryu had a career season in 2019 with 14W/2.32 ERA/1.01WHIP/163Ks in 182 innings. His absurdly low 1.2 BB/9 is one of the best in the majors, and amounts to a 6.8 K/BB rate. .278 BABIP from a season ago on a 34% Hit rate is sustainable. , but the ERA is likely to rise as xFIP shows about 100 points higher and xERA about 50 points higher. 2019 BABIP: 0.278(-0.003)| SwStr%: 11%(0%)| Avg FB: 90.6(0.4)| FB/Chg Split: 10.5(9.0)| HR Distance: 403ft(13)| Strand%: 0.82(-0.06)| HardHit%: 34.2%(0.4%)| Avg Velocity: 85(-0.3)| Elevation%: 6.0(-6.5)| Barrels%: 4.7(-2.1)| HR/FB%: 13%(1%)| GB Rate: 0.50(0.05)| xFIP: 3.32(1.00)| xSLG: 0.373(0.014)
Mike Soroka - Soroka was the best rookie starting pitcher in 2019. His 3.7 WAR is nearly a full point (.9) higher than the closest rookie pitcher and his 174 IP ranks third amongst the rookie starters. Soroka's 2.68 ERA actually ranks third lowest among qualified pitchers in all of baseball. What's even more impressive is that in the highest home run producing season in the history of baseball, this rookie's HR/9 ratio is .69'which is tied for the lowest HR/9 across the majors (for qualified starters)'and he is just 22 years of age. - dnachtigal | That said he wasn't nearly as effective in the 2nd half with a 1.23 WHIP|3.20 ERA. His 80% Strand% is not going to be repeatable and will affect both his WHIP and ERA in 2020, as his slightly below average 10.3 SwStr% does not support it. There will also be some regression with his 280 BABIP against. We do love the groundball rates though (51%). | 2019 BABIP: 0.280(-0.065)| SwStr%: 10%(0%)| Avg FB: 92.5(-0.1)| FB/Chg Split: 11.2(10.4)| HR Distance: 406ft(-2)| Strand%: 0.80(0.05)| HardHit%: 36.3%(6.9%)| Avg Velocity: 87(-1.5)| Elevation%: 5.5(-0.5)| Barrels%: 5.1(-0.8)| HR/FB%: 11%(6%)| GB Rate: 0.51(0.07)| xFIP: 3.85(1.17)| xSLG: 0.395(0.055)
David Price - FB velocity was down almost a run last season, but their were arm problems mixed into that. His unlucky 336 BABIP hurt his overall numbers 2019, and the below average 37% HardHit% did not contribute to that. Still posted a solid 11.2 SwStr% and his zone contact only sits at 82%. . Better season expected. 2019 BABIP: 0.336(0.062)| SwStr%: 11%(2%)| Avg FB: 92.0(-0.7)| FB/Chg Split: 7.9(7.4)| HR Distance: 405ft(16)| Strand%: 0.71(-0.04)| HardHit%: 37.0%(4.8%)| Avg Velocity: 88(-0.3)| Elevation%: 12.4(-1.8)| Barrels%: 8.1(1.1)| HR/FB%: 14%(1%)| GB Rate: 0.41(0.01)| xFIP: 3.73(-0.55)| xSLG: 0.425(-0.016)
Joe Musgrove - FB velocity was down almost a run last season, but their were arm problems mixed into that. His unlucky 336 BABIP hurt his overall numbers 2019, and the below average 37% HardHit% did not contribute to that. Still posted a solid 11.2 SwStr% and his zone contact only sits at 82%. . Better season expected. 2019 BABIP: 0.336(0.062)| SwStr%: 11%(2%)| Avg FB: 92.0(-0.7)| FB/Chg Split: 7.9(7.4)| HR Distance: 405ft(16)| Strand%: 0.71(-0.04)| HardHit%: 37.0%(4.8%)| Avg Velocity: 88(-0.3)| Elevation%: 12.4(-1.8)| Barrels%: 8.1(1.1)| HR/FB%: 14%(1%)| GB Rate: 0.41(0.01)| xFIP: 3.73(-0.55)| xSLG: 0.425(-0.016)
Joe Urquidy - *Top 100 Prospect | Pitcher Rank- 35 Overall Grade-B Current level-MLB Expected MLB- Now Back with Houston, though role unclear. Long relief seems likely. Urquidy is expected to open the season in the Astros rotation. Jose is a top 40 pitching prospect coming in. Last season his 12% SwStr%, 8.8 K/9, and 1.5 BB/9 rates are an excellent indicators of his skill set. Opponents were only able to make contact with 81% of the pitches he threw in the K zone (league average is 86%). He was hit at a slightly below league average 27% Hard Hit rate, so the .281 BABIP from the 41 IP in 2019, will likely leak upward pushing his WHIP to something closer to a 1.20...which is very promising. | 2019 BABIP: 0.281(0.281)| SwStr%: 12%(12%)| Avg FB: 93.3(93.3)| FB/Chg Split: 93.3(0.0)| HR Distance: 392ft(392)| Strand%: 0.74(0.74)| HardHit%: 36.7%(36.7%)| Avg Velocity: 86(85.5)| Elevation%: 15.8(15.8)| Barrels%: 10.0(10.0)| HR/FB%: 12%(12%)| GB Rate: 0.37(0.37)| xFIP: 4.30(0.35)| xSLG: 0.432(0.027)
German Marquez - Solid SwStr rate 12.7% and 10.1 K/9 . Fastball ticked up a notch in 2019 to 95.5, and it made his changeup more effective. His slider however went from being a +2 to -1.5 in 2019. xFIP last year was 3.54, but playing at Coors field is going to result in a higher number of HRs (20% HR/FB rate). In fact his SLG was 70 points higher at home. WIll need to continue to keep the elevation down as a groundball pitcher to keep that ERA in check. | 2019 BABIP: 0.304(-0.007)| SwStr%: 13%(0%)| Avg FB: 95.5(0.3)| FB/Chg Split: 7.5(9.4)| HR Distance: 407ft(0)| Strand%: 0.68(-0.04)| HardHit%: 37.8%(0.5%)| Avg Velocity: 90(1.3)| Elevation%: 6.3(-2.3)| Barrels%: 7.9(2.3)| HR/FB%: 20%(4%)| GB Rate: 0.49(0.02)| xFIP: 3.54(-1.22)| xSLG: 0.456(0.015)
James Paxton - 03/10/2020 James Paxton underwent back surgery to remove a cyst in early Frbruary. The good news is that he's recovering much quicker than expected and could be back in early to mid May. | Elite 14.1% SwStr rate and 11.1 k/9. More of flyball pitcher that induces a lot of popups. Upside in unlucky 313 BABIP last season. 2019 BABIP: 0.313(0.014)| SwStr%: 14%(0%)| Avg FB: 95.5(0.1)| FB/Chg Split: 9.2(9.2)| HR Distance: 393ft(5)| Strand%: 0.76(0.05)| HardHit%: 37.7%(3.7%)| Avg Velocity: 89(-0.8)| Elevation%: 17.1(2.5)| Barrels%: 7.4(-2.0)| HR/FB%: 14%(0%)| GB Rate: 0.38(-0.01)| xFIP: 4.03(0.21)| xSLG: 0.387(-0.035)
