This morning on SiriusXM Fantasy Radio, we're discussing Barrels & Exit Velocity. Below are some of the player notes contained in our 2020 Fantasy Baseball Draft Advisor Program, highlihgting the guys that stand out in these categories.
Barrels
According to MLB.com to be Barreled, a batted ball requires an exit velocity of at least 98 mph. At that speed, balls struck with a launch angle between 26-30 degrees always garner Barreled classification. For every mph over 98, the range of launch angles expands. Barrelled balls have led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage since Statcast was implemented Major League wide in 2015. MLB average is 8%, above 12% is top 40, above 15% is top 15.
Miguel Sano went into absolute beast mode last year with 34 HRs in only 372 ABs. Yes of course his 37% HR/FB rate is not sustainable, but his 53% Hard Hit rate, 107.1 BBS on HRs, and 94 MPH average velocity is off the charts. At only 26, the only thing that will stop Sano from being a fantasy superstar is himself and his health. 2019 BABIP: 0.319(0.033)| Contact Rate: 64%(-3%)| HR Distance: 415ft(18)| HR BBS: 107.1(4.8)| HardHit%: 52.7%(10.2%)| Avg Velocity: 94(4.1)| Elevation%: 15.9(3.0)| Barrels%: 21.2%(9.4%)| HR/FB%: 37%(16%)| GB/FB Rate: 0.9(-0.2)| EYE: 0.35(0.08)| ISO: 32.9%(13.0%)
CJ Cron's production backed off against RHP, where he only posted a 404 SLG, but overall his HardHit% remained well above average as did his 15% Barrels rate. 2019 BABIP: 0.277(-0.016)| Contact Rate: 76%(4%)| HR Distance: 404ft(-4)| HR BBS: 107.8(2.0)| HardHit%: 41.1%(1.5%)| Avg Velocity: 91(3.0)| Elevation%: 12.7(-2.5)| Barrels%: 15.0%(2.8%)| HR/FB%: 20%(-2%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.2(0.1)| EYE: 0.27(0.01)| ISO: 21.6%(-2.4%)
Gary Sanchez: While he only hit .232 the 34 homers and 77 RBI still combine to make him the most valuable fantasy catcher, and it's not particularly close. He's barreling up 18.8% of his batted balls for the season which is good for the top 2% of the league, and he�s upped his launch angle for the third straight season as it sits at 19.4 degrees. - jsperry Contact Rate: 70%(-2%)| HR Distance: 417ft(-1)| HR BBS: 109.3(2.4)| HardHit%: 42.1%(6.6%)| Avg Velocity: 91(0.7)| Elevation%: 19.1(4.9)| Barrels%: 19.1%(5.2%)| HR/FB%: 26%(8%)| GB/FB Rate: 0.7(-0.3)| EYE: 0.32(-0.17)| ISO: 29.3%(7.3%)
Yordan Alvarez (OF-HOU) should be a hot commodity in 2020 fantasy drafts. Although he's just 22, he broke into the majors in a big way this season by batting .313 with 27 homers and 78 RBI in just 313 plate appearances entering the weekend. Before his promotion to Houston, he hit .343 with 23 longballs and 71 RBI in just 253 Triple-A plate appearances. There's really nothing in his profile to suggest that he's not legit, as his hard-hit rate is an elite 51%, he hits plenty of liners (24.5%), and enough flyballs (36.7%) to do some real damage. For a slugger, his 25.5% strikeout rate is acceptable, and he has extra value in leagues that count OBP and/or OPS, as his 14.1% walk rate contributes to a .409 OBP. His track record of producing in the minors underscores that Alvarez should be able to sustain some level of what he's done so far in his major-league career. My main concern is position eligibility, as he's largely served as a DH in Houston, logging only 10 appearances (9 starts) in the OF there. He'll be an asset as a UTIL-only guy, but it would help his value if he maintains OF eligibility going forward. - ahodge | 2019 BABIP: 0.366(0.366)| Contact Rate: 76%(76%)| HR Distance: 411ft(411)| HR BBS: 106.9(106.9)| HardHit%: 51.1%(51.1%)| Avg Velocity: 92(92.2)| Elevation%: 13.4(13.4)| Barrels%: 17.2%(17.2%)| HR/FB%: 33%(33%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.0(1.0)| EYE: 0.55(0.06)| ISO: 34.2%(34.2%)
Jorge Soler had a breakout season in 2019. Consider that coming into 2019, he posted a 9/28/.265 line and followed it up with a 48HR/117RBI/.265 line. What changed? He got better vs RHP (408 SLG vs 583). Contact rate went from 65% to 70%. Barrels went from 10.3% to 16.9%, and 95MPH+ % went from 41% to an elite 50%. Sure some regression is likely, but Soler has arrived onto the fantasy landscape.
Mitch Garver: Elite 47% Hard Hit rate validated with a 50% 95MPH+%. Average MPH on batted balls was 2 MPH higher than league average. That said his 29% HR/FB rate is not sustainable, however something closer to a 22-24% range is. 2019 BABIP: 0.277(-0.053)| Contact Rate: 77%(-3%)| HR Distance: 400ft(3)| HR BBS: 102.7(-2.6)| HardHit%: 47.4%(6.9%)| Avg Velocity: 91(2.3)| Elevation%: 15.3(2.8)| Barrels%: 15.5%(9.9%)| HR/FB%: 29%(21%)| GB/FB Rate: 0.8(-0.2)| EYE: 0.47(0.07)| ISO: 35.7%(21.1%)
Exit Velocity
According to MLB.com Exit Velocity measures the speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact. This is tracked for all Batted Ball Events -- outs, hits and errors. Attaining a high Exit Velocity is one of a hitter's primary goals. A hard-hit ball won't always have a positive result, but the defense has less time to react, so the batter's chances of reaching base are higher. The Average MLB exit velocity is 89 MPH, 91 MPH is top 40, anything above 92 is top 15.
Fammil Reyes: What we love about Reyes is the quality of contact. His 47% Hard Hit rate is elite as is his 93 MPH average velocity on his batted balls. His 407 distance and 106.4 BBS are beast like, but his 31% HR/FB rate is likely to settle in closer to 25-27%. There is upside in his BA, as his 279 BABIP seems unfortunate. On the plus side should be h is RBI count which seems a little under appreciated in 2019. 2019 BABIP: 0.279(-0.066)| Contact Rate: 65%(-4%)| HR Distance: 407ft(-1)| HR BBS: 106.4(1.5)| HardHit%: 47.3%(3.1%)| Avg Velocity: 93(1.0)| Elevation%: 9.5(2.7)| Barrels%: 14.8%(3.2%)| HR/FB%: 31%(2%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.3(-0.4)| EYE: 0.30(0.00)| ISO: 26.3%(4.5%)
Matt Olson: burst onto the scene as a Rookie in 2017 with a 1.003 OPS and wasn't quite able to perform to that level last year, posting a .788 figure with 29 home runs despite playing in every game for Oakland. Olson, who missed some time earlier in 2019 has really come alive smashing 36 home runs in 127 games and has come back nicely from the down year last season as his OPS currently sits at .896. He is sporting a strong .283 ISO and his 50.3% hard-hit rate would have been 3rd in all of baseball if he were a qualified hitter. Some upside expected with the RBI count in 2020. - dbertolino | 2019 BABIP: 0.300(0.008)| Contact Rate: 75%(1%)| HR Distance: 400ft(-7)| HR BBS: 104.8(-0.5)| HardHit%: 50.3%(3.0%)| Avg Velocity: 92(-1.2)| Elevation%: 18.3(0.5)| Barrels%: 14.5%(2.3%)| HR/FB%: 24%(8%)| GB/FB Rate: 0.7(-0.1)| EYE: 0.37(-0.06)| ISO: 27.7%(7.0%)
Marcell Ozuna: Plenty of upside expected in BA as his .202 Singles% is not indicative of a hitter with a 48% hard hit rate and 92 MPH average velocity on balls in play. 2019 BABIP: 0.259(-0.050)| Contact Rate: 74%(-2%)| HR Distance: 403ft(-9)| HR BBS: 105.6(-2.5)| HardHit%: 48.1%(2.9%)| Avg Velocity: 92(0.3)| Elevation%: 13.5(2.7)| Barrels%: 12.6%(2.9%)| HR/FB%: 22%(8%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.2(-0.2)| EYE: 0.54(0.19)| ISO: 23.1%(7.8%)
Yandy Diaz: Solid 79% content rate offers upside, as does his 42% HardHit rate and 45% 95MPH+%. The 17K% and 10% BB% is a sign of a hitter that knows his zone, and could offer some breakout potential if he starts elevating in 2020. He's a sleeper candidate for us. Prospect Central Analysis - What he lacks right now is lift. Diaz sprays the ball and puts it on the ground, at a rate of 53% and up throughout his ML stateside career. Yandy can play a couple of different positions capably. He gets the bat to the ball and controls his strike zone. The addition of a little pop would make him a player who could earn 400+ ABs and contribute a dozen HRs and a reasonable amount of Runs and RBI and be a positive in the AVG column. He will not be a big contributor in SBs (another limiting factor in his value).That's useful with some position qualifications (MI) and borderline in others (3B) and lacking in others OF. For now, he has enough PT to be useful in the short term. His long-term prospects depend on a reduction in his GB rates and the introduction of some lift in his game. Long-Term Fantasy Grade - C - Lou Blasi
Keston Hiura hit .203 AVG with 19 HR, 51 R, 49 RBI, and 9 SB in 78 games. This paces out to a hitter with a .290+AVG who also has 35+ HR power and 15-20 SB which would be a first-round talent. He's not going to get drafted there next year but this is someone with major fantasy upside that has got lost in the shuffle due to the great rookie seasons of Fernando Tatis Jr., Vlad Guerrero Jr., and Yordan Alvarez. If you take a look at Hiura's underlying skills there is a lot to like (8% BB, 44% Hard, 38% FB, 91 mph EV, 15% Barrels). However, there is one major concern and that is his 30% strikeout rate. He showed the ability to make contact in the minors but his O-swing% and Contact% in the majors is below league average. This is concerning but he is young enough and talented enough to improve on those numbers in his second full season. Hiura is a second-round talent that is going to go much later than that in 2020. -Phil Double | 2019 BABIP: 0.402(0.402)| Contact Rate: 66%(66%)| HR Distance: 402ft(402)| HR BBS: 105.3(105.3)| HardHit%: 44.2%(44.2%)| Avg Velocity: 91(91.4)| Elevation%: 16.0(16.0)| Barrels%: 13.9%(13.9%)| HR/FB%: 24%(24%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.0(1.0)| EYE: 0.23(-0.03)| ISO: 26.8%(26.8%)
JD Davis came a pretty big surprise in 2019, posting a line of 307/369/527 on the year. He's was phenomenal after the break, hitting .333 and slugging .593 with improved walk and hard contact rates, and the overall improvement he's made in his chase rate this season has helped cut the K's down, fueling this productivity. With more flyballs hit in the second half, a 33rd ranking in exit velocity, and continued contact rate improvement, Davis might have another gear in him....I don't expect him to regress in 2020, and I think 30 HR is a real possibility. - sdombroske | Likely to regress will be his BA, as the 355 BABIP is not sustainable despite the sold hard contact rates. His 23% HR/FB rate plays more like a 18-19% rate in 2020. Don't pay for the 30 HRs, pay for something close to 25 with the additional ABs expected. 2019 BABIP: 0.355(0.122)| Contact Rate: 75%(2%)| HR Distance: 404ft(14)| HR BBS: 105.4(3.4)| HardHit%: 41.6%(9.2%)| Avg Velocity: 91(2.9)| Elevation%: 10.6(1.8)| Barrels%: 11.4%(3.3%)| HR/FB%: 23%(18%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.6(-0.2)| EYE: 0.39(0.05)| ISO: 22.0%(17.1%)
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