2020 Fantasy Baseball Sabermetric Notes: Starting Pitchers II

Anthony A. Perri

Mar 26, 2020

Today would have been the start of the 2020 MLB season, but as you are probably already well aware of, that start has been pushed forward into an undetermined future. As we endure through one of the most difficult times in our history as a nation, we'll continue to look forward towards what's to come when Baseball gets the call again. Call it, hope springs eternal. Since we last checked in, Noah Syndergaard has checked out. Opting for TJS on an elbow that was apparently ailing. Although the length of the 2020 season is yet to be determined, we're still updating the player projections with the latest data and information as it comes to light. Let's dig back into the Sabermetric analysis that shape our projections in the Fantistics 2020 Player Projections Draft Advisory Program. Today we'll take another look at some of the indicators that are defining our 2020 Starting Pitcher projections:

****For explanation of stats, see Glossary below****

Verlander, Justin At 36 with a 94.7 MPH average fastball, we're in Nolan Ryan territory. His 2.58 ERA/.80 WHIP/21W/300K CY Young season was arguably the best in his career. Incredible, but at some point someone will be holding the bag. Although he typically maintains a BABIP i20-25 points below league average, his .218 BABIP from a season ago with one of the highest 42% Hard Hit rates, simply does not correlate. This despite an insane 16% SwStr%. Verlander has a lat strain, which was expected to push him out a few games into the season, but now with the MLB season delayed, he went out and had hernia surgery, which would have cost him 6 weeks. With the season opening up possibly in early June. He's not expected to miss any time. Despite his status as a top 5 fantasy pitcher, there will be regression! | 2019 BABIP: 0.218(-0.054)| SwStr%: 16%(2%)| Avg FB: 94.7(-0.4)| FB/Chg Split: 7.1(7.7)| HR Distance: 390ft(9)| Strand%: 0.88(0.08)| HardHit%: 41.8%(12.7%)| Avg Velocity: 87(-0.5)| Elevation%: 18.2(-3.2)| Barrels%: 7.8(1.6)| HR/FB%: 16%(5%)| GB Rate: 0.36(0.07)| xFIP: 3.18(0.60)| xSLG: 0.355(-0.006)

deGrom, Jacob Back to back Cy Young winner. Still the Mets are not scoring many runs for him. Consider that through 2 CY Youngs, deGrom has only registered 21 Wins! 11.3 K/9 with an outlandish 15.4 SwStr. Should have won 19 games in a normal setting. His 282 BABIP against was well within reason given the meager 30% contact that opponents hit against him. His 82% Strand Rate is near the top of the spectrum but supported by his underlying indicators. On top of everything else his average 97 MPH fastball was 1 MPH more than in 2018. All said he should be one of the top fantasy pitchers taken in your draft this season. | 2019 BABIP: 0.282(0.001)| SwStr%: 15%(0%)| Avg FB: 96.9(0.9)| FB/Chg Split: 6.6(7.0)| HR Distance: 404ft(7)| Strand%: 0.82(-0.02)| HardHit%: 29.9%(3.3%)| Avg Velocity: 86(0.3)| Elevation%: 12.0(1.7)| Barrels%: 5.0(0.9)| HR/FB%: 11%(5%)| GB Rate: 0.44(-0.02)| xFIP: 3.11(0.68)| xSLG: 0.327(0.004)

Cole, Gerrit Cole continues to improve, averaging about a .5 MPH (97.2 avg velocity) increase every season. Continues to improve on his SwStr% which is an uber elite 16.8% now, as is his 13.8 k/9. His 83% Strand% is likely to regress a little, but his underlying indicators are absurdly sound. Hitters only hit at a .185 BA clip last season and it's totally supported. His BABIP was only .275, but he tends to induce weaker contact. Doesn't lose any support moving to Yankee stadium this season. Concensus #1 fantasy pitcher in 2020. 2019 BABIP: 0.275(-0.011)| SwStr%: 17%(3%)| Avg FB: 97.2(0.6)| FB/Chg Split: 8.6(8.8)| HR Distance: 394ft(3)| Strand%: 0.83(0.07)| HardHit%: 33.9%(2.9%)| Avg Velocity: 87(-1.2)| Elevation%: 13.6(-1.5)| Barrels%: 5.9(-0.3)| HR/FB%: 17%(7%)| GB Rate: 0.40(0.04)| xFIP: 2.48(-0.02)| xSLG: 0.317(-0.026)

Duffy, Danny Decent 10.3% SwStr%, but that has translated vert well to Ks (7.9 K/9). Slightly above average HardHit% and slightly below norm 285 BABIP last season. xFIP doesn't agree with his 4.34 ERA from last season (5.14), but xERA spots it near his 4.34 Era posted. 2019 looks like what we'll get in 2020 with some upside in Wins Expected. | 2019 BABIP: 0.285(-0.019)| SwStr%: 10%(1%)| Avg FB: 92.4(-0.7)| FB/Chg Split: 8.6(9.4)| HR Distance: 417ft(12)| Strand%: 0.74(0.03)| HardHit%: 39.1%(1.1%)| Avg Velocity: 89(0.7)| Elevation%: 15.8(-0.6)| Barrels%: 7.5(0.2)| HR/FB%: 13%(2%)| GB Rate: 0.36(0.01)| xFIP: 5.14(0.80)| xSLG: 0.470(0.032)

Foltynewicz, Mike Fastball lost 1.5 MPH last year as arm problems surfaced. Despite being clipped with a 40% Hard Hit rate, his BABIP shows some luck (265), but the 16.5% HR/FB rate should regress into favorable territory. The 10.5% SwStr% keeps him above board and a similar .72 Strand% is reasonable. Some upside of course in counting stats, but 2018 production seems out of reach unless he can recover the fastball of improve on existing pitches. 2019 BABIP: 0.265(0.014)| SwStr%: 11%(0%)| Avg FB: 94.9(-1.5)| FB/Chg Split: 8.2(8.6)| HR Distance: 393ft(-3)| Strand%: 0.72(-0.06)| HardHit%: 40.4%(5.3%)| Avg Velocity: 88(-0.5)| Elevation%: 14.0(0.4)| Barrels%: 7.8(0.9)| HR/FB%: 17%(7%)| GB Rate: 0.37(-0.06)| xFIP: 4.73(0.19)| xSLG: 0.459(-0.001)

Fiers, Mike Fiers 2019 season included a 15-4 record, which indicates he has been a recipient of great run support, but he is very lucky his ERA does not sit higher then 3.90 as xFIP (5.19) indicate he has been quite lucky. Indeed his 13.2% HR/FB rate is the lowest in years, and he has done a good job of stranding runners on base (79%). Fiers has been an effective innings eater for Oakland, as he on pace to surpass his career high (180). Despite low K numbers (6.12 K/9) Fiers is capable of dominance at times as evidenced by his no-hitter earlier in the season but he is prone to blow ups (6 games allowing 5+ ER). - dbertolino | The biggest issue with his 2019 season was his lucky .254 BABIP which came off of a 39% HardHit rate, look for a significant regression overall in his numbers in 2020. 2019 BABIP: 0.254(-0.015)| SwStr%: 8%(-1%)| Avg FB: 90.4(1.0)| FB/Chg Split: 6.3(6.1)| HR Distance: 401ft(-1)| Strand%: 0.79(0.00)| HardHit%: 39.1%(0.0%)| Avg Velocity: 87(-2.0)| Elevation%: 15.5(-0.7)| Barrels%: 7.4(-3.0)| HR/FB%: 14%(0%)| GB Rate: 0.40(0.01)| xFIP: 5.19(1.29)| xSLG: 0.466(0.466)

Gibson, Kyle Gibson's 37% Hard hit rate should have resulted in a lower BABIP (330). He does induce an elite 13.1% SwStr rate, so on the plus side there is more upside to his K numbers. His fastball has improved by 2 +MPH, but it's his slider that remains his +(1.4) pitch. Thrives as a GB pitcher (51%) Look for an improvement in his bloated 20% HR/FB rate. | 2019 BABIP: 0.330(0.045)| SwStr%: 13%(2%)| Avg FB: 93.3(0.3)| FB/Chg Split: 7.9(7.4)| HR Distance: 402ft(4)| Strand%: 0.68(-0.08)| HardHit%: 36.7%(-2.3%)| Avg Velocity: 88(0.9)| Elevation%: 6.5(-0.5)| Barrels%: 7.5(1.8)| HR/FB%: 20%(6%)| GB Rate: 0.51(0.02)| xFIP: 3.80(-1.04)| xSLG: 0.438(-0.005)

Greinke, Zack Greinke developed a cutter in 2019 that became a +3 pitch for him, dropping his Hard Hit rate from 41% in 2018 to 36% in 2019. It led to a resurgence in his production as his FPI went from 1.83 to 2.19, and was in the running for a CY Young. What also improved was his command. His BB/9 dropped to an incredible 1.3 from an already stellar 1.9. That said he benefitted from an uncharacteristically low 10.9% HR/FB rate which will likely reverse in 2019, so look for that ERA to rise in 2020. 2019 BABIP: 0.271(-0.001)| SwStr%: 11%(0%)| Avg FB: 90.0(0.4)| FB/Chg Split: 6.3(3.0)| HR Distance: 398ft(-5)| Strand%: 0.76(-0.01)| HardHit%: 36.2%(-4.8%)| Avg Velocity: 87(-0.8)| Elevation%: 10.3(0.3)| Barrels%: 6.3(-0.1)| HR/FB%: 11%(-4%)| GB Rate: 0.45(0.00)| xFIP: 3.74(0.81)| xSLG: 0.390(0.026)

Heaney, Andrew Heaney was hit pretty hard last season (48% HardHit%) which made his elevated 312 BABIP look reasonable. He was absolutely terrible at home with a 519 SLG. and a lot of this had to do with his location in the top of the zone. Yes we love the 14.2 SwStr% and the 11.1 K/9, but the GB% went down from 41% in 2018 to 34% in 2019...which led to an elevated 454 SLG against. Look for Heaney to make an adjustment in 2020. 2019 BABIP: 0.312(0.018)| SwStr%: 14%(2%)| Avg FB: 92.5(0.5)| FB/Chg Split: 7.9(8.6)| HR Distance: 405ft(3)| Strand%: 0.76(0.05)| HardHit%: 47.6%(9.2%)| Avg Velocity: 90(2.8)| Elevation%: 17.7(5.9)| Barrels%: 9.8(2.0)| HR/FB%: 18%(3%)| GB Rate: 0.34(-0.08)| xFIP: 4.18(-0.73)| xSLG: 0.440(-0.014)

Tanaka, Masahiro His splitfinger fastball and breaking pitches keeps him moving forward as a very productive pitcher, this despite the questionable elbow that he's been playing through. Every season I'm hesitant to recommend him, and last year we finally saw some cracks in the armor. Last year a full 31 starts, his once elite 14.1% SwStr rate, fell to a league average 10.7% as his split finger moved from being a +1 pitch for him to a -1 pitch. He was hit at a much harder rate (39%) with 37.5% of the ball at 95MPH+. There really wasn't a loss in velocity of his fastball, so this is more about regaining control of the splitfinger verses a health concern. | 2019 BABIP: 0.293(0.009)| SwStr%: 11%(-3%)| Avg FB: 91.5(-0.2)| FB/Chg Split: 7.0(6.9)| HR Distance: 404ft(0)| Strand%: 0.70(-0.03)| HardHit%: 39.1%(1.8%)| Avg Velocity: 89(0.7)| Elevation%: 10.9(1.3)| Barrels%: 6.2(-0.9)| HR/FB%: 15%(-3%)| GB Rate: 0.48(0.00)| xFIP: 4.29(-0.16)| xSLG: 0.437(-0.013)

Kershaw, Clayton Kershaw finished 2019 at 16-5 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.05 WHIP across 28 starts. While the ERA is his highest since his rookie season in 2008, it's low enough that Kershaw will likely remain a hot commodity in 2020 drafts. The slight increase in ERA doesn't worry me, but his 3.52 xFIP, while still very good, is more indicative of a decline in performance. His walk rate is up a bit from previous years and his 42.5% Hard% is way above his career 27.3% mark. - mgreenfeld | His fastball lost another .5 MPH in 2019, but remains a plus pitch, as does his slider as a +1.5. There is some improvement expected in his 18.5 HR/FB rate which was the highest of his career, and his 13% SwStr rate remains intact. Although he historically forces lower BABIPs, his .262 BABIP with a 42% Hard Hit rate appears fortunate. | 2019 BABIP: 0.262(-0.011)| SwStr%: 13%(2%)| Avg FB: 90.4(-0.5)| FB/Chg Split: 5.3(6.3)| HR Distance: 406ft(-2)| Strand%: 0.84(0.05)| HardHit%: 42.0%(5.8%)| Avg Velocity: 87(0.1)| Elevation%: 11.2(2.4)| Barrels%: 6.8(1.4)| HR/FB%: 19%(6%)| GB Rate: 0.48(0.00)| xFIP: 3.50(0.47)| xSLG: 0.404(0.010)

Keuchel, Dallas Keuchel's 3.75 ERA seems to be quite fortunate, as xERA shows something closer to a 4.54 expectation. A lot of that has to do with the 80% Strand Rate that is likely not sustainable with a 7.3 K/9 (8.7 SwStr%). Yes being a groundball pitcher has its advantages (60%), but his xAVG against was 20 points higher than his actual. What should improve is his HR?FB rate of 22%, expect something closer to 17-18% in 2019. 2019 BABIP: 0.298(-0.002)| SwStr%: 9%(0%)| Avg FB: 88.4(-0.9)| FB/Chg Split: 8.7(9.6)| HR Distance: 406ft(18)| Strand%: 0.80(0.07)| HardHit%: 36.8%(8.7%)| Avg Velocity: 88(1.0)| Elevation%: 2.3(-1.9)| Barrels%: 6.9(2.4)| HR/FB%: 24%(13%)| GB Rate: 0.60(0.06)| xFIP: 4.06(0.31)| xSLG: 0.429(0.003)

Morton, Charlie Morton continues to induce weaker than typical contact (34% hard hit rate), which gives rise to his 75% Strand Rate...He upped his SwStr% to 12.9% in 2019 and his 11.1 K/9 followed. Dominates at home with a .302 SLG against and continues to maintain a heavy 48% GB rate. Thrives on his FB/CH 9.5 MPH split. More of the same expected in 2020. 2019 BABIP: 0.298(0.015)| SwStr%: 13%(1%)| Avg FB: 94.4(-1.3)| FB/Chg Split: 9.5(8.3)| HR Distance: 398ft(3)| Strand%: 0.75(-0.02)| HardHit%: 34.1%(4.3%)| Avg Velocity: 87(-0.4)| Elevation%: 9.1(1.8)| Barrels%: 5.0(-0.8)| HR/FB%: 10%(-4%)| GB Rate: 0.48(0.01)| xFIP: 3.28(0.23)| xSLG: 0.340(0.000)

Gray, Sonny Posted a likely unsustainable and fortunate .255 BABIP on a average 38% HardHit rate, that will likely revert and hurt his overall numbers in 2020. His changeup became a very dominant pitch for him in 2019 with a +2 value, despite only being a 3.5 MPH split. The other ++ pitch was his slider. His 51% groundball rate and 7.9% Elevation keeps him competitive. His 10.5% K rate seems a bit bloated and not supported by his 11.3% SwStr rate. Going to be difficult if not impossible to maintain the 80% Strand%. 2019 BABIP: 0.255(-0.071)| SwStr%: 11%(1%)| Avg FB: 93.3(0.0)| FB/Chg Split: 3.5(3.6)| HR Distance: 409ft(12)| Strand%: 0.80(0.11)| HardHit%: 37.9%(2.4%)| Avg Velocity: 87(-0.8)| Elevation%: 7.9(0.6)| Barrels%: 6.8(0.5)| HR/FB%: 13%(0%)| GB Rate: 0.51(0.01)| xFIP: 3.65(0.78)| xSLG: 0.355(0.030)

Kluber, Corey Returning from a fractured forearm, should be 100% to start season. The issue for the soon to be 34 YO, is the velocity on his FB is starting to wane. He's lost 2 MPH the last few years and is now considered an exploitable pitch. The Cutter remains his out pitch, but only delivering it 23% of the time...it might not be enough. Generally we can ignore this 2019 results as it was fueled by an unlucky 370 BABIP, as his 12.3% SwStr% and 9.6 K/9 remain intact. In summation, he's still a top 20 pitcher, but we can not expect the total dominance we saw in 2017 and 2018. | 2019 BABIP: 0.370(0.103)| SwStr%: 12%(-3%)| Avg FB: 91.6(-1.0)| FB/Chg Split: 6.6(6.8)| HR Distance: 388ft(-26)| Strand%: 0.64(-0.19)| HardHit%: 37.5%(8.6%)| Avg Velocity: 86(1.0)| Elevation%: 13.3(3.2)| Barrels%: 8.9(3.4)| HR/FB%: 10%(-4%)| GB Rate: 0.40(-0.05)| xFIP: 4.88(-0.92)| xSLG: 0.453(0.003)

Ryu, Hyun-Jin Ryu had a career season in 2019 with 14W/2.32 ERA/1.01WHIP/163Ks in 182 innings. His absurdly low 1.2 BB/9 is one of the best in the majors, and amounts to a 6.8 K/BB rate. .278 BABIP from a season ago on a 34% Hit rate is sustainable. , but the ERA is likely to rise as xFIP shows about 100 points higher and xERA about 50 points higher. 2019 BABIP: 0.278(-0.003)| SwStr%: 11%(0%)| Avg FB: 90.6(0.4)| FB/Chg Split: 10.5(9.0)| HR Distance: 403ft(13)| Strand%: 0.82(-0.06)| HardHit%: 34.2%(0.4%)| Avg Velocity: 85(-0.3)| Elevation%: 6.0(-6.5)| Barrels%: 4.7(-2.1)| HR/FB%: 13%(1%)| GB Rate: 0.50(0.05)| xFIP: 3.32(1.00)| xSLG: 0.373(0.014)

Sanchez, Anibal Sanchez continues to do a great job of inducing weak contact, His Hard Hit rate of 32% is a skill, which coincides with his abnormally low .265 BABIP. However in 2019, his 10 mph split between his fastball and changeup, lessened to only 7 MPH...His xFIP shows an ERA that should have been closer to 5.10 last season, and a lot of that has to do with a below league norm 11.1% HR/FB rate. Look for that to likely increase in 2020, as hitters are averaging a higher elevation on Sanchez than in the past. 2019 BABIP: 0.265(0.010)| SwStr%: 10%(0%)| Avg FB: 90.5(8.3)| FB/Chg Split: 8.3(9.8)| HR Distance: 405ft(9)| Strand%: 0.75(-0.04)| HardHit%: 31.6%(3.9%)| Avg Velocity: 87(2.8)| Elevation%: 14.3(3.7)| Barrels%: 6.6(1.5)| HR/FB%: 11%(0%)| GB Rate: 0.38(-0.07)| xFIP: 5.10(1.25)| xSLG: 0.425(0.019)

Eovaldi, Nathan Still throwing as hard as he ever has (97.2 MPH), but doesn't have a changeup....which makes his pitches detectable to the hitter. Hence the norm SwStr rates (10.6) and contact rates (76). As such he relies on balls hit into play more often that a fireballer would. Last season his 315 BABIP was on the unfortunate end, so we will likely see some improvement in his overall numbers...unless he comes up with an effective changeup...which would entirely change his MO...and not likely. | 2019 BABIP: 0.315(0.028)| SwStr%: 11%(0%)| Avg FB: 97.5(0.3)| FB/Chg Split: 97.5(97.2)| HR Distance: 384ft(-19)| Strand%: 0.73(0.03)| HardHit%: 37.1%(4.2%)| Avg Velocity: 91(2.6)| Elevation%: 11.0(-0.4)| Barrels%: 8.8(3.1)| HR/FB%: 23%(11%)| GB Rate: 0.45(-0.01)| xFIP: 4.89(-1.10)| xSLG: 0.430(-0.080)

Wheeler, Zack Wheeler moves to Philly, which is more of a hitters ballpark...which is likely to give his 10.9 HR/FB rate a major jump in 2020. The fastball speed is elite at 96.7, but the split with his changeup is only 8 MPH, which allows him to post good Swing Strike rates and K rates, but there seems to be something left on the table. His 71% Strand rate is below league average, and again a reflection of the league average swinging K rate. Needs to refine a secondary pitch to achieve his true potential. 2019 BABIP: 0.311(0.032)| SwStr%: 11%(0%)| Avg FB: 96.7(0.8)| FB/Chg Split: 7.9(8.1)| HR Distance: 404ft(9)| Strand%: 0.71(-0.01)| HardHit%: 31.4%(6.6%)| Avg Velocity: 86(1.5)| Elevation%: 11.5(1.4)| Barrels%: 5.3(0.5)| HR/FB%: 11%(3%)| GB Rate: 0.43(-0.01)| xFIP: 4.06(0.10)| xSLG: 0.400(0.012)

Explanation of Stats:

BABIP: Batted Balls Hit in Play - League Average near .300. On average pitchers have little control over this, however superior pitchers do have control in allowing weaker contact, while the opposite is true for poor pitchers. In parenthesis is the change over 2018.

SwStr%: Swinging Strike Rate measures Swings and Misses divided Total Pitches. League average is around 10.9%. Elite Pitchers are in the 12-14% range.

Avg FB: Average Fastball Speed. Not to long ago anything over 90 was considered excellent. Today that average is 92.6. Elite average fastball speeds are now above 95MPH.

FB/Chg Split: Delta between Fastball and Changeup. League average is close to 8 MPH. Any split above 9 is considered Excellent. Any split above 10 is considered the "Holy Grail". Although there are several ways to compete, deception is the key to pitching success.

HR Distance: This represents the average Homerun distance of all the homeruns allowed by this pitcher. Although this statistic varies in effectiveness. Poor pitchers tend to get hit harder, and thus exhibit greater distance on HRs allowed. Yet pitchers with greater velocity on their fastball, also tend to give up longer homeruns, but in some cases, are still very effective pitchers. In other words don't overplay this indicator. League Average HR distance is 401ft.

Strand%: Measures the number of baserunners left stranded, as opposed to those baserunners that they allowed to score. Better pitchers have a higher strand%, and this will show up in their ERA. It's not a surprise that other indicators such as SwStr% and K/9 have a high correlation to Strand%. League average is .73.

HardHit%: measures the percentage of batted balls that are hit "hard". Hard hit rate was first developed by Sports Info Solutions (formerly Baseball Info Solutions) and data dating back to 2002 is publicly available. When it was first developed, analysts from Sports Info Solutions manually categorized every batted ball as being "soft" hit, "medium" hit and "hard" hit, however, the method of recording the statistic became much less subjective in 2010. While the exact formula has not been released, the current method of tracking "hard" hit rate involves an algorithm accounting for batted ball's air time, trajectory, landing spot, etc. The average HARDHIT% is currently 38%

Avg Velocity: A Statcast metric that measures Exit Velocity measures the speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact. This is tracked for all Batted Ball Events -- outs, hits and errors. Average Velocity off the bat is 88.7 MPH.

Elevation%: A Statcast metric that measures the elevation of the ball coming off the bat. Groundball pitchers will have a lower metric. Average Elevation angle is 12.7.

Barrels%: A Statcast classification is assigned to batted-ball events whose comparable hit types (in terms of exit velocity and launch angle) have led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage. Average Barrels% is 8.0.

HR/FB%: Homeruns divided by Flyballs, how many flyballs pitched that flew out of the ballpark. League average is 16%. Some pitchers have some control/loss of control over this statistic, but generally it's out of a pitcher's governance.

GB Rate: Groundball Rate measures the percentage of groundballs allowed by the pitcher. League average is 43%.

xFIP: A different way to measure a pitchers "true ERA", through the Fielder Independent Pitching formula. xFIP subs in a league average HR rate, with the assumption that variations to HR/FB are uncontrollable. ((Fly balls / league average rate of HR per fly ball x 13) + (3 x (BB + HBP)) - (2 x K)) / IP + FIP constant.

xSLG: A Statcast metric that measures a pitchers expected slugging percentage.

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Fantasy Strategy

Mar 26, 2020

Anthony A. Perri @Anthony_Perri

Anthony A. Perri is the founder and the resident "Stats Nerd" here at Fantistics. Anthony is the designer of the Fantistics Projections, Grading, & the VAM drafting strategy models. His fantasy expertise has been published in several national publications, and can be heard on their nationally broadcast SiriusXM (ch87) Fantistics Sports Radio Show. Anthony has an MBA and worked as a quantitative analyst within the investment industry from 1986-1999. Transplanted from New York (still a Mets and Giants Fan), he currently lives in Arizona with his wife Mary , daughter Hannah, and son Adam. Having won a "trophy room" of Fantasy Sports Championships over the last 25 years, he hopes to continue to lead you in the same direction.