Preseason Prep - February 22, 2020

BOSTON RED SOX

The loss of 2018 AL MVP Mookie Betts is obviously the most impactful off-season development for the Sox. Newcomer Alex Verdugo, who was acquired from the Dodgers as part of the Betts deal, is most likely to be the everyday outfielder in place of Betts. The 24-year-old got his first extended Major League playing time last season with 377 plate appearances; he had just 111 MLB plate appearances prior. Verdugo displayed promise at the plate with 12 homers and a .294/.342/.475 triple slash line during his 2019 campaign. His contact numbers were terrific: 85.2 Contact% (9.0% above league average in '19), 93.7 Z-Contact% (8.8% above LA), 6.6 SwStr% (4.6% below LA). Currently he figures to bat somewhere in the middle of the Red Sox lineup, which would give him great potential, but if he continues to display such plate discipline it's quite possible that he could find himself leading off for Manager Ron Roenicke on a regular basis. Unfortunately, Verdugo was shut down at the end of the 2019 season with a stress fracture in his back and the injury will likely cause him to miss the first few games of 2020. Being the beginning of a long season, the Sox figure to be cautious with the injury right out of the gates, but all indications are that Verdugo will be 100% healthy come April. So, the injury might actually play to your advantage, as many fantasy owners are scared off by players that have an injury designation at the beginning of the season. ESPN currently has Verdugo as the 67^th ranked Outfielder, but playing in one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, with a solid line-up around him, it's very likely he produces well above that ranking.

The other major piece that the Sox lost in the Betts blockbuster was starting pitcher David Price. Chris Sale, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Nathan Eovaldi are basically locked in at the top of the rotation, but the 4 and 5 slots are far from set. Off-season acquisition Martin Perez is the only pitcher guaranteed to get an extended run at the end of the starting rotation so he should have some fantasy value. The southpaw started the 2019 season great for the Minnesota Twins, but fell off a cliff in the middle of the season. He was 6-1 with a 2.17 ERA through his first eight starts and then proceeded to go 1-3 with a 6.61 ERA across his next 12 outings. Interestingly, his xFIP was actually better during the second 12 starts: 4.42 compared to 4.45, but he started giving up a lot more home runs (.91 HR/9 to 1.83 HR/9). Unsurprisingly, the left-hander's biggest issue in 2019 was with right-handed bats. Perez posted a solid 1.09 WHIP, 4.13 xFIP, .25 HR/9, 3.11 K/BB, and .260 wOBA against lefties; but posted an unimpressive 1.64 WHIP, 4.85 xFIP, 1.54 HR/9, 1.84 K/BB, and .353 wOBA against righties...and unfortunately for Perez his move in ballparks is unlikely to help him with that discrepancy as Fenway park is a much more home run friendly ballpark for righties than it is for lefties. Perez did post career bests in O-Swing% (35.4%), Z-Contact% (87.8%), and SwStr% (9.8%) last season and is still just 28 years old so there is potential; but if he can't find a way to be more affective against right-handed hitting he won't be worth fantasy consideration.

TORONTO BLUE JAYS

Coming into the 2020 season, the Blue Jays have one of the youngest and probably one of the most exciting offenses in baseball. However, for all the home-grown talent they have been procuring on the offensive end, they have been massively lacking on the pitching end. In the off-season the front office went out and made a bevvy of moves to try to remedy this problem. The top three spots in the Jays starting rotation will all be newcomers to the team. Obviously, 2019 ERA king, Hyun-Jin Ryu was the biggest acquisition of the bunch. Across 182.2 innings last season, Ryu posted a 2.32 ERA and 3.32 xFIP. The southpaw had shown flashes of brilliance when he first signed with the Dodgers back in 2013 and 2014, before a torn labrum shelved him for basically two seasons. Ryu put it all together last season and finished 2^nd in the NL Cy Young voting. He didn't dominate with strikeouts like most of the top tier pitchers (8.03 K/9), but his control was second to none as he posted an obscene 1.18 BB/9 that lead all major league starting pitchers. The Rogers Center is not as pitcher friendly as Dodger Stadium, which will hurt Ryu some, but he owns ERA under 3.0 (2.98) and an excellent 3.42 xFIP in 740.1 career innings; so, it's probably safe to say that the 32-year-old is an elite pitcher at this point.

The other two starters that the Jays acquired this offseason are veterans Tanner Roark (33) and Chase Anderson (32). Both Roark and Anderson have been solid middle of the rotation starters for the past five years or so. Roark has a career 3.71/4.17 ERA/xFIP and is the more accomplished of the two pitchers, but Anderson (3.94/4.53 ERA/xFIP career) has had more recent Major League success. 2019 wasn't particularly impressive for either pitcher, but Anderson's underlying numbers appear to be trending in the right direction, whereas Roarks' are not. In 2019 Anderson posted a career best 32.3% O-Swing%, and 10.9% SwStr%, while upping his fastball velocity .7 MPH (93.6 vFA) from the 2018 season. Roark produced a career worst 28.1% O-Swing%, which was third-worst among MLB starters, and his 27.1% LD% ranked dead last. Neither pitcher does much to excite fantasy owners, but if there is optimism for one of them it would be for Anderson.

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

The D-Backs spent the offseason beefing up their outfield and strengthening their rotation. The additions of Starling Marte and Kole Calhoun give them two new starters in their outfield, which is big, but of course the signing of former world series MVP Madison Bumgarner was the headline of the offseason. Though it seems like he has been around forever, MadBum is still just 30 years old, and should enter the 2020 campaign with a full bill of health. The southpaw is coming off his worst statistical season as he posted an ERA over 3.40 for the first time in his 11-year major league career. Though he didn't post ace-like numbers last season (3.90/4.31 ERA/xFIP), Bumgarner is the unquestioned ace of this rotation. 2019 wasn't all negative for three-time World Series winner; his O-Swing%, Contact%, and SwStr% were all better than his career averages, and he pitched over 200 innings for the first time since 2016. Like most pitchers a season ago, Bumgarner's biggest problem was keeping the ball inside of the park. The 1.30 HR/9 he posted is significantly higher than his career rate of .94. The move from Oracle Park (the least home run friendly park) to Chase Field (second highest elevation for a MLB park) won't help him keep the homers run numbers down; but he does own a solid career 3.13 ERA and 3.87 xFIP at his new home field, for what that's worth.

Starling Marte hasn't been the fantasy stud he was back in 2016 since his PED suspension in 2017, but he hasn't been a slouch either. He's slashed .285/.336/.462, hit 48 homers, and stole 77 bases in basically two and a half seasons since the 80-game suspension. Last season, Marte hit a career high 23 dingers and posted his second highest wOBA (.353) of his career, so his move to a more hitter-friendly park in 2020 is intriguing. Marte has always been most valuable in category leagues where his elite stolen base prowess can be maximized. He doesn't do anything else great, but he doesn't really hurt you anywhere else either. At 31 years old, his elite base stealing days are probably over, but he still swiped 25 bags last season and is a good bet to get over 20 again this season. He is probably on the downswing of his career from a fantasy perspective, but who really knows what he will do with a scenery change this season.

AROUND THE LEAGUE

Shin-Soo Choo, OF, Rangers

Choo underwent surgery on his left shoulder in October and is still recovering. The 37-year-old is expected to be ready for the beginning of the season (or somewhere close to it), but did not suit up in the teams' Cactus League opener on Friday. Choo hit a career high 24 home runs in 2019 and has now eclipsed the 20-homer mark in three consecutive seasons. His eye at the plate continues to make him an on-base machine at the top of the Rangers' lineup. His 22.7% O-Swing% last season was 8^th best in the majors, which helped him get on base at a .371 clip and score 93 runs. Choo is in the last year of his contract and 2020 could very well be his last season. Due to his age, Choo is a risky fantasy option, but he has played in at least 146 games each of the past three seasons, and his ability to get on the bases will keep him at the top of the Rangers lineup. He certainly isn't the sexiest option, but he is consistent and should be solid fantasy contributor in 2020, particularly in 12+ team leagues.

Brendan McKay, SP, Rays

The young pitcher is experiencing some "shoulder stiffness" and hasn't thrown a live bullpen session yet. The injury isn't considered to be anything serious, but his condition will be worth monitoring leading up to fantasy drafts. McKay would ideally have a strong spring and snatch an end of the rotation starting gig from either Yonny Chorinos or Ryan Yarbrough, which would certainly make him worth fantasy consideration. If that doesn't happen it's hard to consider the 24-year-old as a draftable player for 2020.

Jose Martinez, DH, Rays

Martinez had been an integral part of the St. Louis Cardinals' offense for the past few seasons, however, he could never fully find himself an everyday spot due to his porous defensive skills. So, a move to the AL seems to be exactly what the big fella needed. He has always been able to hit, as evidence by his career .298 average and .353 wOBA, and as the DH in Tampa he should have the chance to prove that on a nightly basis. Martinez is a bit of a free swinger, but all of his Plate Discipline statistics are above average, and he totes a career 24.1% LD% as well as a 4.3% IFFB%. Additionally, he uses the entire field (29.1 Pull%, 42.9 Cent%, 28 Oppo% in 2019), so he is difficult to employ a shift on.

Tommy Pham, OF, Padres

After a great season and a half in Tampa Bay, Tommy Pham moves across the country to the notoriously pitcher-friendly Petco Park. Pham posted a .349 wOBA last season to go with 21 homers and 25 stolen bases. The biggest reason to be excited about the 31-year-old is where he will most likely find himself in the Padres line-up. Pham has spent most of his career hitting out of the two-hole and is expected to do that this season in San Diego as well. This puts him in between Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado. So, the disciplined veteran (20.0% O-Swing% and 7.3% SwStr% in 2019) is in about as desirable of a hitting spot as there is right now. Pham has proven himself a solid hitter the past three seasons and though he won't be as hot of a commodity as Tatis or Machado, he might be just as valuable considering his significantly lower ADP.

Josh Donaldson, 3B, Twins

After a resurgent 2019 with the Braves garnered Donaldson with "Comeback Player of the Year" honors, the 34-year-old has moved onto the Minnesota Twins. The 2019 Twins set the major league record for homeruns and, with Donaldson, have added a bat that poked out 37 last season. Donaldson was healthy, and energized, last season and his statistics prove it. He figures to sit right in the middle of the Twins' lineup and should have plenty of opportunities to do damage. Donaldson was mainly a free agency pick-up or a late round flyer last season, but that won't be the case in 2020 after his .259/.379/.521, 96 R, 94 RBI, season in 2019. If you're tentative to jump back on the Josh Donaldson bandwagon, that's more than understandable, but just take a look at his career numbers at Target Field before you make your final decision:

22 G, 31-83, .373 AVG, 17 XBH, 10 HR, 1.283 OPS

Of course, this is a small sample size and it might not be indicative of anything, however Donaldson said there is something he really likes about hitting in the park and cited that his personal success at Target Field was one of the contributing factors to him signing with the Twins this offseason.

Nick Solak, 3B/2B/DH/OF?, Rangers

After playing a handful of games at second and third base last season, Nick Solak has reportedly been working in the outfield and may potentially be the team's centerfielder. Players that are eligible in the outfield and some infield positions are a fantasy owners delight. In his short stint in the big leagues last season Solak showed off his bat skills, but didn't impress as much with the leather. Danny Santana is currently the team's centerfielder, but considering his range of positions (has played every position at the MLB level besides catcher), it would behoove the Rangers to free him up so he can play wherever there is an injury or a need. If Solak does win a starting spot somewhere in the Rangers lineup he will be an intriguing fantasy option. He has just 135 professional plate appearances to his name, but he's hit .293, with five homers and a .375 wOBA in those appearances, so he might be worth a late round flyer on.

Matt Carpenter, 3B, Cardinals

The curious case of Carp over the past few seasons has been a tough one to figure and an excruciating one to endure. Coming off a decent season in 2017, Carpenter was considered a fantasy regular and was probably drafted in most leagues for the 2018 campaign...but then he started off the season dreadfully as he hit .200 with a .302 wOBA through his first 179 plate appearances. Many owners abandoned ship and then missed out on the three-month stretch in which Carpenter went insane. Over his next 334 plate appearances, he hit .320 with 30 homers and a mind-bending wOBA of .464. He cooled off at the end of 2018, but he finished with 36 dingers and a .897 OPS, so fishing for Carp was back on for 2019...where he laid an egg, batting .226, with 15 homers and a .315 wOBA. So, what to make of Carpenter coming into 2020? Who knows? He does have a spot in the line-up solidified for the time being, so if he looks hot early, nab him up and see if you can't ride his heater for a while.

Howie Kendrick, 1B/2B, Nationals

Between the Eric Thames (1B), and Starlin Castro (2B) additions, and all the players the Nationals already have for the left side of the infield (Zimmerman, Kieboom, Cabrera, Difo), there doesn't appear to be an every day starting gig for Hot Hitting Howie yet again here in 2020. He couldn't find himself a full-time spot last year despite slashing .344/.395/.572 with an incredible .400 wOBA and 146 wRC+ across 370 plate appearances. Kendrick posted a stellar 92.5% Z-Contact% and there was a 31.4% difference between his Soft% and Hard%. He is 36 years old and he is a bit of a liability in the field, but wow, those are some numbers. With how crowded it is, it's hard to justify drafting Kendrick, but keep a watchful eye. If/when there are injuries and he can get some extended play, he has been magic with the bat and can help fill in for some of your injuries as well.

Our Player Projections model was created and is maintained by our founder and lead Statistician Anthony Perri. Using advanced and cutting edge Sabermetric indicators, which now include velocity indicators on batted balls, our player projections are trusted for accuracy by several Major League Baseball front offices. Over the past 21 years, we have correctly forecast the statistical direction on over 7 out of 10 professional baseball players for their upcoming season. If you are ready to Dominate your Fantasy Baseball Draft, click here to register today.

Our Player Projections model was created and is maintained by our founder and lead Statistician Anthony Perri. Using advanced and cutting edge Sabermetric indicators, which now include velocity indicators on batted balls, our player projections are trusted for accuracy by several Major League Baseball front offices. Over the past 21 years, we have correctly forecast the statistical direction on over 7 out of 10 professional baseball players for their upcoming season. If you are ready to Dominate your Fantasy Baseball Draft, click here to register today.