Cesar Hernandez
Hernandez went 1-3 and scored a run against the Reds on Friday. Hernandez's performance has fallen off of a cliff over the last two-plus weeks, but the 29-year-old still took a solid .789 OPS into Friday's game. Hernandez's hard hit rate (a career best 32%) has fallen recently, taking his BABIP with it and causing his slump. Part of the reason behind Hernandez's declining hard hit rate is likely the change in the pitches he's seeing; Hernandez saw fastballs 52.8% of the time in May, but that number has dipped by 11 points in June (small sample, but important), causing his falling hard hit rate. Another issue is that Hernandez has been significantly less effective against breaking balls in June, though he will likely bounce back over the rest of the season in that aspect of his game. In addition to his increased power, Hernandez offers strong contact skills (84% contact rate, 90.7% z-contact rate, 7.2% swinging strike rate) that have risen recently and help prop up his floor (though his 13.2% strikeout rate will likely rise over the rest of the year). Fantasy owners should be generally optimistic about Hernandez going forward and expect an OPS that hovers between about .780 and .800.
Mike Soroka
Soroka got another win on Friday as he lasted eight innings while allowing one run and striking out six. Soroka has pitched like an ace for the Braves since slotting into the starting rotation in mid-April, and the 25-year-old should continue pitching well this year. There's a lot to like about Soroka including a solid arsenal and elite command, but the 21-year-old's sub-2.00 ERA will likely rise over the rest of the season. Although Soroka is excellent at inducing soft-contact (2.5% barrel rate, 85.6 MPH average exit velocity) and keeps the ball on the ground (1.48 GB/FB ratio), he will almost undoubtedly allow more home runs (Soroka's 0.16 HR/9 is less than half of DeGrom's league leading mark from last season). Soroka really has been fantastic this season though, and there's little to suggest that he'll finish with an ERA above the low-3.00's (though it will be worth keeping an eye on his hard hit rate, which has been rising recently).
Brian McCann
McCann went 2-5 with a strikeout against the Marlins on Friday. McCann has rebounded from a poor season with the Astros, but he's still far from the All-Star caliber catcher he was years ago. Interestingly, McCann has been walking as frequently as he strikes out, and that's because even though he's chasing pitches at a 30% rate (slightly above his career average), he's posted a ridiculous 89.2% o-contact rate (would've been the best mark in the league last season by 1.1 points). McCann has had peaks in his o-contact rate like this in the past -- in 2012, the 15-game rolling average of his o-swing rate reached 96.7%, and his current streak is the fifth time he's eclipsed 90% since 2010. McCann finished with an o-contact rate between 75 and 80 percent in three of those four seasons, so that's likely where he'll wind up this season too. In addition to his contact skills, McCann's power has looked solid so far this year, though he has been hitting the ball on the ground with more frequency than usual. Overall, expect McCann to finish the season with a strikeout rate around or a little over 15% with an OPS around or just below .750.
Antonio Senzatela
Senzatela allowed one run over six innings to get the win over the Mets on Friday. Senzatela showed flashes of fantasy value last season but has struggled this season and took a 5.33 ERA into Friday's game. Fantasy owners can't blame Coors Field for Senzatela's struggles as the 24-year-old owns better numbers at home than on the road, and the bulk of his issues are related to his inability to fool hitters. Senzatela's plate discipline and contact profiles look more like that of an elite hitter than a pitcher (22.4% o-swing rate, 70.5% z-swing rate, 6.6% swinging strike rate, 90.1% z-contact rate), and those profiles are likely driven by Senzatela's weak pitch arsenal. Senzatela relies primarily on his fastball (which he throws 64.71% of the time) that is below average in almost every respect (with the exception of velocity, where he is only slightly better than average), and his secondary pitches aren't much better (if at all). Don't expect Senzatela to be a valuable fantasy asset this season.
Jarrod Dyson
Dyson went 0-4 with a walk, a run, and a stolen base against the Blue Jays on Friday. Dyson has been solid for the Diamondbacks for this season, and the 34-year-old appears to have changed his plate approach to add power. Dyson has been more aggressive with strikes while maintaining a generally patient plate approach, and more of his contact has been z-contact this year (though that is partially driven by a very low 58% o-contact rate). Dyson is also hitting to the opposite field less frequently than ever this year (at a 16.8% rate), and his hard hit rate is up by 5%. Although those changes all sound good, Dyson is likely bound for negative regression even as his .733 OPS is already less than enviable. Dyson's improved hard hit rate is just 27.1% while his increased average exit velocity sits at 81.7 MPH (bottom 2% of the league), and he's been drilling the ball into the ground with a 1.17 GB/FB ratio. As a result, Dyson owns a paltry .321 xSLG, and his .327 BABIP is likely to fall over the rest of the season. Dyson is fast, and his increased (though still modest) power should help boost his value, but don't expect him to maintain this level of performance going forward.
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