A Closer Look - June 29, 2019

And just like that, we're at the halfway mark of the season! In honor of being halfway done, we're going to do a little "on pace for" analysis for the closer pool. Personally, I hate using "on pace for" numbers for anything but amusement, but it is fun to see. Keep in mind, the output is only as accurate as the inputs, meaning "on pace for" studies are worthless for players like Craig Kimbrel, whose first half statistics will be far different than his second half rates. With this in mind, here's what your save leaders would look like if the same pace was maintained in the second half as was produced in the first half, flexed for each individual team's remaining games.

	On-Pace
Player:	Saves
Kirby Yates	53
Aroldis Chapman	47
Kenley Jansen	45
Shane Greene	45
Brad Hand	45
Will Smith	43
Felipe Vazquez	39
Josh Hader	38
Sean Doolittle	34
Roberto Osuna	34
Alex Colome	33
Hector Neris	32
Edwin Diaz	32
Blake Treinen	32
Jordan Hicks	29
Sergio Romo	29
Raisel Iglesias	27
Ken Giles	24
Luke Jackson	24
Shawn Kelley	22
Wade Davis	22
Hansel Robles	22
Greg Holland	21
Taylor Rogers	20
Blake Parker	20
Ian Kennedy	20
Roenis Elias	19
Pedro Strop	18
Steve Cishek	14
Ryan Brasier	14
Mychal Givens	12
Jose Alvarado	12
Jose Leclerc	10

The thing that jumps out for me from this list is the distribution of saves. As you might remember from my column in the preseason, there were only three closers with 40 or more saves, eleven closers with 30 or more saves and just seventeen with 20 or more saves in 2018. From the list above, there are six closers on-pace for 40 or more saves, fourteen on pace for 30 or more saves, and twenty-six on-pace for 20 or more saves. That's an incredible increase year-over-year considering that 2019 has been the year of "bullpen-by-committee". In fact, the funny thing about the list above is that both Blake Parker and Taylor Rogers are on pace for 20 saves and they're coming from the same bullpen! That's the most 2019 think I've ever heard...

Below are the on-pace-for strikeout leaders:

	On-Pace
Player:	Saves
Josh Hader	152
Matt Barnes	121
Kirby Yates	109
Luke Jackson	107
Felipe Vazquez	105
Jose Leclerc	104
Brad Hand	101
Will Smith	99
Edwin Diaz	99
Ken Giles	94
Mychal Givens	93
Ty Buttrey	93
Hector Neris	92
Kenley Jansen	90
Raisel Iglesias	89
Aroldis Chapman	89
Taylor Rogers	89
Scott Oberg	86
Ian Kennedy	80

Not only is Josh Hader on pace for 38 saves, he's also on pace for 152 strikeouts, making this season arguably the best season from any closer of all time. Also interesting is that five full-time closers (Hader, Yates, Jackson, Vazquez, Hand) are on pace for 100 ore more strikeouts. In 2018, there were just three closers with 100 or more strikeouts (Diaz, Hand, Treinen).

As I metioned in last week's column, all of this information actually adds up to make the elite closers even more valuable. "But Michael, if there are more closers getting more saves and more strikeouts, doesn't this mean it's easier to find saves?" The answer is yes, but that doesn't invalidate my statement. Owning a Josh Hader or a Kirby Yates this season provides such a massive advantage over, say, Blake Parker or Alex Colome because the stats you're banking are elite and taking the latter two head-to-head versus the former two will cause you to consistently fall beyond, even if you're still moving forward. Bottom line, stop listening to people who say you can wait for saves. You absolutely can, as long as you're happy with falling behind.

Around the League:

-The Cardinals, Jordan Hicks, and his fantasy owners were all dealt devastating news this week as the fireballer was diagnosed with a torn UCL and underwent Tommy John surgery on Wednesday. Hicks was on his way to be one of the most valuable relievers of the 2019 draft, but now it looks like Hicks will miss the rest of the 2019 season and could even miss the majority of the 2020 season. His injury opens the door for former starting pitcher Carlos Martinez to become the team's undisputed closer. Martinez hasn't exactly "thrived" in relief this season, posting mediocre strikeout rates, but has induced a lot of groundballs (61.6%), which is a positive for closers. Martinez will probably be over-valued because of his name recognition, but don't sleep on John Gant possibly seeing an opportunity here or there, and the Cardinals might even be active in the relief pitcher market this month (Ken Giles might be available, for example).

-Craig Kimbrel made his Cubs debut against his former team, the Atlanta Braves. Kimbrel made things a little interesting by giving up a double and a walk against Atlanta, but managed to shut down the threat with a little help from Anthony Rizzo, who made an incredible defensive play to save a hit and get the final out. Kimbrel's acquisition gives Joe Maddon substantially more freedom in his bullpen and lets Pedro Strop move back into the set-up role where he thrives, and Steve Cishek in the fireman role. Kimbrel will be the full-time closer on a very good Cubs team, which could translate to top-10 production the rest of the way. Also enticing is the fact that unlike the rest of the closers in the league, Kimbrel's arm is rest and he should be fresh through the stretch run.

-Blake Treinen landed on the disabled list last week, leaving Liam Hendriks to be the closer in Oakland. The good news is that Treinen is already throwing on flat ground and plans to throw a bullpen session this weekend. Treinen has been a disappointment this year with dips in velocity and effectiveness of his pitches across the board. As I eluded to in the 2019 Closers Draft Guide in the Fantistics Draft Advisory Program, Treinen's heavy usage of the last 3 seasons and lack of track record as a closer were two big red flags for his draft position this year. It's possible he comes back and performs at his 2018 level in the second half of 2019, but it seems doubtful, at this point. Treinen's underlying metrics are all in line with his 2017 season, making 2018 seem like more of the outlier.

-What's wrong with Edwin Diaz? After being the best closer in baseball in 2018, Diaz took his services to New York and has fallen flat on his face. So which is he? Like most things, the answer lies somewhere in between. On the surface, his results stats are hideous - 4.94 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 2019 compared with a 1.96 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in 2018 - yet many of his underlying metrics remain unchanged or better. Off the top, his SwStr% is 17.8%, which is fantastic and just a touch below his 18.9% last season. While his overall contact rate is a little higher than last year (65.7% vs 63.7%), his zone contact rate is down to 71.7%, nearly 13% better than league average. Diving deeper into the batted ball data we see what is likely the true cause for the ugly numbers as his hard hit rate is 48.6% compared with 29.3%, while his soft hit rate has fallen to 14.9% compared with 22.6%. Batted ball data is inherently volatile with relievers given the relative small sample of balls, and for that reason it's not necessarily predictive, but it does accurately describe what has happened. There's no arguing that Diaz has been lost and he must command his pitches better (control is fine - it's the fine tuning he needs to work on), but there's a pretty strong case to be made that he's been extremely unlucky.

-Marlins closer Sergio Romo collided with Trea Turner in Thursday's game and was forced to leave with a bone bruise. The team is calling it minor, but it's probably likely Romo will need a couple days off. Romo is a candidate to be dealt at the deadline, so the team will be eager to get him back on the mound to prove his health. Tayron Guerrero is the handcuff to add here, and he might be worth rostering anyway given the trade risk with Romo, but the skills are questionable. Guerrero's SwStr% of 14.1% is enticing, but his 17% walk rate is beyond concerning.

-Per an article published by Sporting News earlier this week, the Dodgers are looking at both Will Smith and Felipe Vazquez as potential options to shore up an otherwise pitiful bullpen for the NL's top team. Both Smith and Vazquez would most likely slot in as Kenley Jansen's primary set-up man. Both would result in a huge loss to fantasy owners who have ridden great results from both players this year. If Smith gets dealt, Tony Watson or Reyes Moronta are two of the candidate to take his spot as closer, while Kyle Crick or even Francisco Liriano seem like logical options in Pittsburgh.

-Hector Neris melted down on Thursday, managing an impressive 81.00 ERA. It was the second blown save of the season for the closer and the second in two weeks. Overall, Neris has been very good and not a risk to lose his job. That doesn't mean the Phillies won't be active during this season's trade deadline, however.

Closer Tiers and Handcuff Grades

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