Whew. You folks are making me work for my money this season! After what started out as a very quiet year in terms of closer changes, things have picked up substantially over the last two months. The high point was obviously over the last week as contenders scrambled to improve their bullpens, while teams out of contention tried to cut their losses and stockpile future assets. Currently, nearly a quarter of all bullpens are in utter disarray, at least in terms of roles and labels. Given the magnitude of the changes and the fact most of you are already well aware of the trades that went down, we're simply going to go division-by-division and team-by-team, taking a look at the current favorite for saves and evaluating whether or not the current handcuff is worth owning in a standard 5x5 league.
Around The League:
American League East:
Baltimore:
Current Closer: Michel Givens
Best Handcuff: Paul Fry
Analysis: Not sure who one or both of these guys are? Don't beat yourself up about it. The Orioles dealt both Zach Britton and Brad Brach at the trade deadline, leaving a path for Fantistics pre-season favorite Mychal Givens to assume the closing role. Unfortunately, Givens has been extremely hittable over the last several outings. Don't sleep on Paul Fry, a rookie who has only been up with the big club since the end of June, but already looks like the most talented arm in the 'pen. He's sporting a 60% groundball rate to go along with a 13% swinging strike rate, which obviously is lending itself well to his 25% strikeout rate and 5% walk rate. I can't promise how many save chances the Orioles will even create the rest of the season, unfortunately.
Boston:
Current Closer: Craig Kimbrel
Best Handcuff: Matt Barnes
Analysis: There's not much that needs to be said here other than the fact that I was wrong about Kimbrel in the pre-season. While most were drafting him as the second closer off the board in most drafts, I wasn't comfortable taking him until closer to the 5th or 6th guy off the board. My concern was tied to his high hard hit rate allowed last season, but sure as the statistical gods are, they reminded me of a little principle called small sample size bias. Kimbrel has been nothing less than excellent for most of the season and there's absolutely no reason to be worried about him.
New York:
Current Closer: Aroldis Chapman
Best Handcuff: Dellin Betances
Analysis: Like with Boston, there's isn't much drama in New York. Chapman continues to roll on as an elite closing option and Betances as an elite set-up man. Move along...
Tampa Bay:
Current Closer: Sergio Romo
Best Handcuff: Jose Alvarado
Analysis: Despite some speculation suggestion he may get dealt, Sergio Romo remained with the Rays through the trade deadline. While he remains the team's primary closing option, this situation is relatively fluid. Sergio is a mediocre option, at best, given the relative uncertainty of when his next save chance will arrive.
Toronto:
Current Closer: Ryan Tepera
Best Handcuff: Ken Giles
Analysis: Perhaps the most shocking trade, at least involving relievers, happened between the Blue Jays and the Astros with the Jays sending Roberto Osuna in return for Ken Giles. The deal, which involved two closers that were drafted among the first ten off the board in draft season, was essentially a swap of two guys who probably would benefit from a change of scenery. While their reasons are different, we're not here to discuss character, but merely assess their talent level and likelihood of notching saves. Giles seems like the logical fit to eventually move into the closing job for the Blue Jays, allowing the team to move Ryan Tepera back into the 8th inning where he excels. The Jays also traded Seung Hwan Oh, so they could benefit from more middle relief help.
American League Central
Chicago
Current Closer: Jace Fry
Best Handcuff: Xavier Cedeno
Analysis: Well, the White Sox did trade Joakim Soria, but we still have no clarity on who may take over as closer. As I wrote last week, Jace Fry is head and shoulders (well, maybe not that much) more talented than the rest of the bullpen, so he remains my top target. Like with Baltimore, the ultimate question is whether the few saves you will notch from this bullpen are worth the headache of chasing them.
Cleveland
Current Closer: Cody Allen
Best Handcuff: Brad Hand
Analysis: There's been some speculation that the Indians may end up using newly acquired Brad Hand in the ninth inning due to Cody Allen's inconsistency this year. Allen must read the Cleveland papers because he has stepped up his game over the last couple of weeks after gifting fantasy owners a 6 spot in a game against Cincinnati on July 10th. Hand is a far more valuable tool in relief for the Indians than he is as closer, but now than the team also activated Andrew Miller from the disabled list, they may be more willing to experiment since they won't need to save Hand against tough lefties (in theory).
Detroit
Current Closer: Shane Greene
Best Handcuff: Joe Jimenez
Analysis: Shane Greene was not dealt at the deadline, so he remains atop this bullpen situation after pitching extremely well in his first year as closer. Surprisingly, Detroit actually ranks 9th among all MLB teams in save opportunities, which simply goes to show that the number of wins a team has is not always directly correlated with the number of saves that same team's closer can achieve.
Kansas City
Current Closer: Wily Peralta
Best Handcuff: Kevin McCarthy
Analysis: Flashy is certainly not a word you'd use to describe Wily Peralta, but effective might be. Peralta is effective because his high walk rate hasn't burned him yet, but with an 14:11 strikeout-to-walk rate looming over his head, it's only a matter of time until it does burn him.
Minnesota
Current Closer: Fernando Rodney
Best Handcuff: Ryan Pressly
Analysis: Boy, there's not much left in Minnesota. Fernando Rodney is doing an adequate job, but given his skills now and his current situation, he's not an ideal closer.
American League West
Houston
Current Closer: Hector Rondon
Best Handcuff: Roberto Osuna
Analysis: While the Astros did acquire Roberto Osuna, it's unlikely he will see time in the ninth inning as long as Rondon remains effective. However, it's probably no coincidence that Houston acquired relief help just a couple days after Rondon's four run meltdown against Texas last weekend. Osuna has an uphill battle to not only prove he's not rusty, but also to gain the trust of AJ Hinch and the respect of him teammates and fans, but he remains the most talented arm in the Astros bullpen, so remains a decent speculative grab if you have the bench space.
Los Angeles
Current Closer: Blake Parker
Best Handcuff: Justin Anderson
Analysis: Now here's a situation that I have very low confidence in my current closer pick. Blake Parker has now allowed runs in 4 of his last 7 outings. Meanwhile, Justin Anderson had a 1.69 ERA and 62% groundball rate in the month of July. His biggest issue is that he still struggles with free passes, but it certainly seems like this is a situation that's less than settled.
Oakland
Current Closer: Blake Treinen
Best Handcuff: Jeurys Familia
Analysis: It's funny how about a month ago, I was writing about the Athletics potentially trading Blake Treinen, yet come the deadline, Oakland was actually buying Jeurys Familia. Familia has been excellent since coming to Oakland, striking out 8 and allowing just 3 hits in 7 innings pitched. Treinen, on the other hand, has matched him out for out. There's no closer controversy here, but Familia is one of the more talented handcuffs in the league right now.
Seattle
Current Closer: Edwin Diaz
Best Handcuff: Alex Colome
Analysis: Edwin Diaz has established himself as a deserving performer in the top tier of closers this season. Diaz checks all the boxes we want to see from a closer and there's very little reason not to think he'll continue this type of production for the rest of the season.
Texas
Current Closer: Jose Leclerc
Best Handcuff: Alex Colome
Analysis: With Keone Kela and Jake Diekman both traded, the job is Jose Leclerc's to lose. Leclerc has strikeout ability and despite having a low groundball rate, he doesn't give up many homeruns. He's not an ideal closer, but he may prove to be better than you might think.
National League East
It was a relatively slow week in terms of closer news, which is welcome to many of your ears (and FAAB budgets!). Nonetheless, we're a mere three weeks away from the trade deadline and that means we could see a deal at any point over the next 25 days. If history is any indication, contending teams seeking bullpen help aren't afraid to make trades early. In fact, often it's "the early bird who gets the worm" in a market like today where high leverage relievers are in extremely high demand. Below you'll find a list of all current "playoff" teams and their associated relief pitching xFIP.
If The Playoffs Started Today, Here's Each Team's Relief Pitching xFIP (High to Low):
Braves - 4.18
Indians - 4.10
Cubs - 4.04
Dodgers - 3.98
Diamondbacks* - 3.93
Mariners - 3.92
Phillies - 3.80
Red Sox - 3.68
Brewers - 3.36
Yankees - 3.07
Astros - 3.01
As you can see from the list above, all but one, possibly two of the teams below already have established closers so any acquisition would simply be for middle relief depth. So why do you care? Well, here's a list of some current closers that could be on the move at the trade deadline.
Zach Britton (BAL)
Jeurys Familia (NYM)
Kyle Barraclough (MIA)
Brad Hand (SD)
Joakim Soria (CWS)
Seung-Hwan Oh / Tyler Clippard (TOR)
Keone Kela (TEX)
Raisel Iglesias (CIN)
Blake Treinen (OAK)
That's roughly one-third of the closer pool that could be on the move. Now remember that most of the current playoff teams already have an establish closer and this could be a very bloody few weeks for fantasy owners relying on any of the guys above. There's no guarantee all or any of those players get traded, but if you're an owner of any of them, you need to be on your toes.
Saves Leaders This Week:
Edwin Diaz - 4 (Can you believe this guy?)
Brandon Morrow - 3
Wade Davis - 3
Blown Saves This Week:
Raisel Iglesias - 1
Joakim Soria - 1
Kyle Barraclough - 1
Around the League:
-Arodys Vizcaino was activated from the disabled list and will assume the closer role for the Braves after a relatively successful stint filling in by AJ Minter. Manager Brian Snitker told media that he'll watch Vizcaino's workload in the second half, presumably to make sure he can be healthy for the playoffs, so Minter is still worth owning, particularly if you're a Vizcaino owner.
-Detroit's Shane Greene hit the disabled list earlier this week. If you're an avid reader of our player notes, you'll already have read what I said on Monday when the news broke. If you happened to miss it, here it was: "Shane Greene landed on the disabled with a strained right shoulder. The injury came completely out of the blue, but most concerning might be the fact that he wasn't sure what was wrong, but that he knew his velocity was down. Meanwhile, Joe Jimenez, the front runner to take over as closer in Detroit, blew his first career save opportunity by walking in the tying run. Nonetheless, there aren't many better options in the Tigers bullpen right now and the balls called on Jimenez were awfully close to strikes. We'd expect to see him out there for the next save chance. Jimenez has managed a much more impressive 27% strikeout rate this season than last year, which is easily backed by his 14% SwStr%. He can get burned by the long ball (although he's maneuvered around it this year) given his high fly ball rate and 36% hard hit rate allowed. Jimenez is definitely the closer of the future in Detroit, it's just a matter of him actually executing in the ninth inning. Time will tell, but he's the short-term favorite." His only outing since that blurb was written occurred on Friday night when he easily captured his first career save. Jimenez is your best grab this week in this bullpen, especially with the uncertainty around Greene.
-Will Smith appears to be pulling away from the rest of the group in the closer committee in San Francisco. The Giants haven't had many recently, but Smith got the most recent save chance on Sunday (cleaning up Mark Melancon's mess in the 9th inning). Smith has been one of the best non-closing relievers this season, so he's obviously worth an add regardless if he's generating saves or not. His 38% strikeout rate paired with a 40% groundball rate is flashy enough, but then you add in a career best 65% contact rate and an 18% SwStr% and there's plenty of reason to think it can continue. He's also a must grab this week.
-Toronto placed Ryan Tepera on the disabled list over the weekend and despite Seung-Hwan Oh seemingly being the preferred option, only Tyler Clippard has recorded saves in his absence. With Roberto Osuna set to return less than a month away, my general preference is not to mess around with this bullpen whatsoever, but if I had to choose one, it'd still be Oh because I think he hasn't seen the save chances simply because of the way they feel with his rest schedule and overall team performance over the last week.
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