Anthony Rizzo (CHC) - Anthony Rizzo's bat showed promise near the end of June, but it has once again gone ice cold in July. While he hasn't said anything and the team remains quiet, one has to question whether his back injury that caused him to land on the disabled list earlier this season is once again affecting his swing. While he has gradually been trending towards more of a contact-oriented hitter the last several seasons, his contact rate is up to 85% and his strikeout-to-walk rate is up to 41:34. All good things right? Normally, yes, but Rizzo's flyball rate is down to 37%, his lowest mark since 2012 and his hard hit rate checks in at 32%, which is right about league average. While some may look at his .243 BABIP (and subsequently his .244 batting average) and shout unluckiness, I'd agree that perfect his batting average is short a handful of points, but his clear change in approach at the plate is the biggest factor driving his low 12.5% HR/FB rate. For me this all adds up to a player who isn't completely healthy, but still chugging away in the lineup every day. Perhaps not being named to the All-Star game is a blessing for the Cubs, fantasy owners and Rizzo himself.
DJ LeMahieu (COL) - Although his has played in just 66 games, DJ LeMahieu has underachieved in his most value category during the 2018 season. With three straight seasons of a batting average north of .300, LeMahieu is hitting just .271 this year as he has traded fewer singles for more home runs. Having never hit more than 11 in a season, LeMahieu has already cracked eight round trippers this year. Unfortunately, he has hit just three since April 15th, so it'd be foolhardy to chalk him up with a new career record just yet. While his batting average has suffered on the road this yearn (.246), nearly all of his power has come in away games. Given that his home field is the light, high altitude air of Denver, that fact alone should prove the power was merely small sample size noise.
Jesus Aguilar (MIL) - Thanks to the MLB player's all-star votes being due in the middle of June, Jesus Aguilar is left to battle it out with fellow 2018 phenom Max Muncy for the "final" spot on the NL all-star team. The superlatives for Aguilar's first half (actually, basically the last two months) are endless. Since May 1, Aguilar leads all of baseball in runs batted in (55) and leads the National League in home runs (21). By now he's obviously owned in all of your leagues, but how real is the breakout? I can tell you that the underlying metrics have supported Aguilar's monster breakout from the very beginning. His 47% hard hit rate is excellent and his plate discipline numbers show he's advanced well beyond his experience. Yes, he hits a lot of flyballs and yes he pulls the ball an awful lot. Those would all be negatives if he stops hitting the ball hard on such a consistent basis. Until that happens, he remains a great source of power, although his batting average of .306 will inevitably continue to balls, mainly due to the batted ball profile I just discussed.
Vincent Velasquez (PHI) - Vincent Velasquez hit the disabled list last week after getting drilled by a comebacker off his pitching arm. Luckily, manager Gabe Kapler told reporters that Velasquez will likely start Wednesday's game. It's great news for Velasquez after escaping a potentially scary injury, but for fantasy owners, is getting Velasquez back actually a good thing? The righty has been a series of highs and lows this year and his ERA of 4.69 is nearly a run higher than his xFIP at 3.68. Supporting this unluckiness is a strand rate of just 67%, well below the rate someone striking out 29% of the batters he faces should realistically be at. His swinging strike rate is solid at 12%, but the chase rate is rather low, but given that his hard hit rate allowed is only at 33%, I'm not overly concerned about him fooling or not fooling batters. He's a nice target for a bounceback second half.
Asdrubel Cabrera (NYM) - Asdrubel Cabrera went 2-for-4 in the first game of the doubleheader and hit his 16th home run of the season. Cabrera's career high is 25 set in 2011 when he was playing for the Indians, but he has an excellent shot at surpassing the total this year. As a result, his 16% HR/FB rate looks well out of line, but Cabrera is currently hitting the ball hard 43% of the time, the highest rate of his career and 12% higher than his career average. That type of jump is more than enough to justify his HR/FB rate increase.
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Anthony Rizzo (CHC) - Anthony Rizzo's bat showed promise near the end of June, but it has once again gone ice cold in July. While he hasn't said anything and the team remains quiet, one has to question whether his back injury that caused him to land on the disabled list earlier this season is once again affecting his swing. While he has gradually been trending towards more of a contact-oriented hitter the last several seasons, his contact rate is up to 85% and his strikeout-to-walk rate is up to 41:34. All good things right? Normally, yes, but Rizzo's flyball rate is down to 37%, his lowest mark since 2012 and his hard hit rate checks in at 32%, which is right about league average. While some may look at his .243 BABIP (and subsequently his .244 batting average) and shout unluckiness, I'd agree that perfect his batting average is short a handful of points, but his clear change in approach at the plate is the biggest factor driving his low 12.5% HR/FB rate. For me this all adds up to a player who isn't completely healthy, but still chugging away in the lineup every day. Perhaps not being named to the All-Star game is a blessing for the Cubs, fantasy owners and Rizzo himself.
