AL Player Analysis - July 21, 2018

Mallex Smith(OF-TB): Smith went 2-for-3 with a triple, three RBI's, one run, one walk, and one stolen base vs. the Marlins. Smith still is not seeing everyday at-bats, but he's holding his own against LHP's, and with the Rays falling out of the race, I see him earning consistent looks down the stretch. There may not be a more underrated option in keeper ROTO formats than Smith, who continues to show improvement across the board (three-percentage point increase in contact rate and a nearly six-percentage point increase in his hard contact rate from last season). He has 40-steal potential, and if you need category help down the stretch, Smith could easily swipe 15 in the second half. Buy.

Nate Eovaldi(SP-TB): Eovaldi took a no-decision after allowing one run on six hits (one homer) and no walks with eight strikeouts over six innings vs. the Marlins. The tall right-hander continues to be an enigma. On the one had, he has benefited from a .245 BABIP and he has struggled away (5.18 ERA, 8 homers in 40 innings). However, he is also posting the best swinging strike (11 percent) and chase rates (36 percent) of his career, and he is limiting the walks (1.29 BB per 9). He can be volatile, but I see real gains here from Eovaldi. If he stays healthy, he has number three starter potential, but his struggles with pitching deeply into games will likely keep him as a solid number-four option.

Joey Gallo(1B, OF-TEX): Gallo went 2-for-5 with two homers, three RBI's, three runs, and one walk vs. Cleveland. Gallo hit a 478-foot (estimated) blast to tie the game in the ninth off Cody Allen as he continues to be one of the game's best power hitters. However, that .190 AVG continues to drag down his value in ROTO leagues. He has been a bit unlucky with his BABIP, and he has made strides with his contact rate and spray chart, so there is hope he can at least maintain a mark above the Mendoza line. His elite walk rate gives him value in OBP and points formats, and even helps him maintain respectable counting stats in ROTO leagues, but to roster him in ROTO, you have to build the right team around him. He's a unicorn and looks like a legit perennial 40-homer guy.

Dylan Bundy(SP-BAL): Bundy lost after allowing five runs on five hits (three homers) and one walk with five strikeouts over five innings against the Blue Jays. The long ball continues to plague Bundy (16 percent HR-FB rate), yet his 34.9 percent hard hit rate, while slightly above average, suggests that should normalize during the second half. Bundy is still inducing swings-and-misses (13 percent) and chases (35 percent), but his struggles vs. LHH's (.374 wOBA, .500 slugging, -1.6 pitch value on changeup) have been a troubling reversal from last year's success. A change of scenery is on the horizon, so those in keeper formats will benefit with patience. It just hasn't worked with the Orioles development staff, but I believe he still has the ingredients to succeed.

Lucas Duda(1B-KC): At $3600, Lucas Duda looks set for a big day in the later slate on DraftKings for his matchup at home vs. Lance Lynn. Duda carries a 123 wRC-plus and a hot streak into today's contest. Lynn has allowed a .482 slugging and a 24:27 K:BB ratio vs. LHH's (.613, 14:8 on the road). If you're looking to work in elite SP's--and judging by their matchups, that looks prudent--going with moderately priced KC's lefties will help you round out your lineup within budget.

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