Zack Wheeler (SP) NYM - Wheeler was very solid in Arizona Sunday, allowing just 3 hits and 2 runs over 6 innings, walking 2 and fanning 8 in a no-decision. There is a discrepancy in velocity readings between the two sources that I use that I believe is key to understanding Wheeler's value right now, and I'm leaning toward one source over the other due to their delineation between his 4-seamer and a 2-seamer that he used to throw. This could be bias on my part for full disclosure, but assuming I'm right, Wheeler just finally returned to his 2014 velocity 8 starts ago (if I'm wrong, his velocity has simply been bouncing around in a range for all four years of his career, which doesn't match up with what I see). Over those eight starts, Wheeler has had two poor ones, one mediocre one, and five solid outings. The totals are as follows: 46 2/3 IP, 45 H, 22 ER, 17 BB, 48 K. That's an ERA of 4.24 with more than a K per inning. Not stellar, but certainly usable in most formats, and I think there's upside from there....perhaps down into the high-3.00's. I view him as a solid SP5 right now with upside to SP4, and I do believe he should be owned and started most of the time in just about all formats, which probably makes me high man on Wheeler right now.
Jesus Aguilar (1B) MIL - Aguilar had 3 hits on Sunday, including his 13th homer, as the Brewers lost to the Phillies 10-9. Despite the fact that he's arguably been Milwaukee's hottest hitter, Aguilar is likely reduced to playing 1/2 to 2/3 of the time right now, as the Brewers have Braun, Yelich, Santana, Shaw, Aguilar, and Thames to play four positions right now. The hard contact rate has been 45.1% for 458 PAs dating back to the beginning of last year, and he's managed to cut his GB rate and his swinging strike rate at the same time this season, making me think that this performance spike is legitimate at least in large part. If it makes sense, I love the player but hate his situation....his value right this second is probably only about 3/4 of what it could be. As such, if you get a great offer for him you should probably take it, but keep in mind that any trade by the Brewers that frees up time for him instantly increases his value, and that's a fairly likely thing over the next six weeks.
Derek Dietrich (3B/OF/2B) MIA - Dietrich has stayed hot in June, reaching base four times on Sunday to give him his 7th multi-hit game of the month and push his June AVG up near .360 on the heels of a May in which he hit 306/383/528. He's still owned in just over 20 percent of ESPN leagues and frankly, he needs to be owned at this point. He's on pace for mid-teens in homers, he's been hitting over .300 for six weeks now (and it's no fluke with a 24 percent LD rate, a hard contact rate over 38 percent, and a BABIP that may not even be high enough given those two stats), and he probably still carries eligibility everywhere but SS and C. There's no reason not to carry this guy on a roster in standard formats or deeper.
Jon Gray (SP) COL - I get it, he's maddening. Walk with me through Gray's outing in Texas Sunday.....K, foul out, fly out, line out, K, K, K, K, K, K, single, SB, single, ground out, pop out, single, K, CS, K. That's the first five innings, where maybe two balls were hit hard and he struck out 9. Then the wheels came off, not only for him but for the whole team, who made two errors behind him in the sixth amidst five runs, four earned. If you want to deal him, deal him to me.....everything about him says that he's a high-K, high-3.00's ERA pitcher, which is a guy I'll take in the middle of my rotation all day long. I know his ERA is 5.89 right now, and I know I've been preaching patience, but stick with Gray if you can stomach it...he's basically made one mistake apiece in the last two games that've cost him 3-4 runs each game. Saying that's unlikely to continue is an understatement.
Brandon Nimmo (OF) NYM - Nimmo bashed his 3rd homer in the past 9 games, and his line for the year is now 274/402/565. I've seen people talking about how he might be the odd man out once Cespedes returns, and frankly, that would be extremely stupid.....so it remains a possibility. Sure, Jay Bruce's bat looks deader than Elvis, but he makes a lot of money so let's keep trotting him out there instead of the kid who has been our best hitter by far and is just entering his prime. Nimmo has a hard contact rate of 43.6% and is getting on-base over 40% of the time...he's a top-40 OF already, and better than that in OBP-based formats obviously. His exit velo is above 90 (MLB average is 88.8) so the power is legit, at least when coupled with the 44.4% flyball rate. I'm really bullish on this kid.
