Christian Villanueva- SD- 3B- Idea- Villanueva has been hot of late and his price is not reflecting that. He has three multi-hit games in his last four contests with 3 HR over the same time period. He will have the platoon advantage against LHP Gio Gonzalez. Villanueva has the profile for power (33% Hard, 50% FB) and is a great tournament option. DraftKings: $3,300
Jarrod Dyson- OF- ARI- Hot- For some players regression to the mean can be a wonderful thing. Dyson is hoping yesterday was the start of some for him. He entered the game with a .181 average and .192 BABIP. After going 3-for-4 and scoring a run Dyson's average eked over the Mendoza line to .204 and his BABIP was up to .222. With a .302 career BABIP there is plenty of room for Dyson's luck to improve more. Even with misfortune causing the bulk of his .278 OBP he has stolen 8 bases so far. With more opportunities his preseason projection of 37 is well within grasp.
Adam Duvall- OF- CIN- Cold- Duvall earned the dubious distinction of the golden sombrero yesterday, striking out in all 4 of his plate appearances. His average has sunk to .188. Most of that can be attributed to bad luck, as Duvall's BABIP is a dismal .198. Before yesterday he had reduced his K% to 24.4%, less than his 26.3% of 2017. Now it is just a hair's breadth away at 26.2%. Duvall has also increased his BB% to 12.2%, well above last year's 6.0% and his 6.7% of 2016. The power is still in place as Duvall has slugged 9 homers so far and his ISO of .235 is above his .232 mark of 2017. If yesterday was an aberration and Duvall doesn't start pressing too much there's nothing wring with him that regression to the mean won't fix. Patience is required.
Matt Kemp- OF- LAD- Hot- Kemp went 2-for-3 with a double and walk yesterday, also scoring a run. His average now sits at .321. This would be a great time to sell high as Kemp is enjoying the effects of a .382 BABIP. His Hard% has jumped to 46.2%, a level he has never finished a season with, even in his prime years. The odds of Kemp sustaining these are very long. Sure, Vegas can make the Stanley Cup Finals, but not every long shot pans out. Otherwise they wouldn't be long shots. Kemp is a long shot.
Martin Prado- 3B- MIA- Drop value- In 2016 Prado batted .305 with the Marlins, the 5th time in his career he had exceeded the .300 mark. He scored 70 runs and knocked in 75. Now, after having the start of his season delayed by a hamstring injury Prado is looking up at the Mendoza line, with a .165 average. A lot of that is due to bad luck in the form of his .197 BABIP. Regression to the mean will help him. Unfortunately, the team he is on will not. Miami has put Prado in the leadoff position of late, a role for which he is not suited. Even if he starts hitting, there won't be many opportunities for him to knock in runners and batters behind him are not going to bring him around that often. Miami's 160 runs scored is dead last in the league. If Prado changes addresses his value will shoot up.
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