James Paxton (SP-SEA)
Paxton was dealing on Thursday, changing speeds and eye levels. If you have the ability to watch archived games, fast forward to the Yan Gomes at bat in the 2nd inning. He threw two soft curves on the inside corner of the plate at 81 mph. Then he finished him off with a high 96-mph fastball on the outside corner. It really was beautiful. He finished the game with 10 strikeouts in 6 innings, allowing two earned runs. He's been sitting around 95 with his fastball in the early going this season, but he was pumping them in at 97 against the Indians. Paxton is striking out the most batters of his career and also walking the most. He's also giving up way more fly balls than usual, but that's just so out of the ordinary for the type of pitcher he's been, even going back to the minors. The only possible explanation is that he's using his cutter more and curveball less. His cutter get more strikeouts while his curveball induces more groundballs. With all that being said, his ERA is higher than it should be. His FIP and xFIP are much lower than his ERA (his SIERA was 3.63 coming into Thursday's game). With a high floor for strikeouts, Paxton's a good pitcher to target as a potential buy-low candidate.
Kyle Gibson (SP-MIN)
Kyle Gibson may have had the best start of his career on Thursday. At Yankee Stadium, Gibson threw 6 scoreless innings, striking out 10 and allowing only one hit while walking three. The Bronx Bombers came into the game with the second highest wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers. Gibson would have none of it. A guy who normally throws in the low-90's was clocked at 96 at one point, and he really had the Yankees off-kilter with his slider. Unfortunately, Fernando Rodney is the Twins closer and Gibson got a no-decision after another Rodney blown save. I'm still not buying Gibson, however. Even with a pretty good 2nd half of 2017 and a strong start to 2018, it's the eye test. His fastball is so darn hittable. There's very little movement on it, and I can't see him regularly working it up to 95 or 96. He was clearly jacked up to play the Yankees in the Bronx. He was good on this day. Appreciate that, but don't invest too much into a pitcher who finished each of the last two seasons with a 5.07 ERA.
Lucas Giolito (SP-CHW)
Giolito fell an out short of a quality start, going 5.2 IP and allowing 2 runs at Kansas City. At least Giolito rebounded after his disastrous outing against Houston last week. It helps to play the Royals. However, the concern about his lack of strikeouts has reached DEFCON 5, as it should. On Thursday he only struck out two batters. It's a continuation of last year's problem. In 2017, after striking out more than a batter per inning in AAA, he only struck out 6.75 per 9 at the major league level. This year's been even worse. He's only had one game with more than four K's. Giolito has publicly admitted that he's emphasizing location rather than speed, but this is a guy that once threw 100-mph fastballs in the minors. Now he's sitting in the low-90's. His ERA should probably be somewhere between last year's and this year's, but without the K's, he's just not fantasy relevant.
Miguel Sano (3B-MIN)
News Flash: Miguel Sano strikes out a lot. He leads the American League with a 41.2 K%. It would be the highest of his career. As Sano's aged, his strikeout rate has inflated along with... well, nevermind. He added three more whiffs on Thursday and his approach just doesn't seem to be getting better. As expected, the heightened K's result in a lower batting average (currently .213). His chase rate is up from last year and by design, pitchers are throwing less strikes. If he could show more patience and earn some walks, opponents will have to start pitching to him. That's when he does his damage as he still features a .253 ISO and is on pace for 30 homers.
Blake Snell (SP-TB)
This is a sneaky, GPP play as most owners are scared to start an opposing pitcher at Fenway, but the Red Sox rank dead last in wOBA vs LHP (.257). Plus, Snell shut the Red Sox down for 5.2 innings in his first start of the year. Boston is averaging 2.6 runs per game in its last five contests and Snell has six strikeouts or more in each of his last three starts. He's the 14th most expensive pitcher on DraftKings ($6,900), which allows for flexibility in putting together a lineup.
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