Didi Gregorius (SS-NYY) had a huge game on Monday against the Marlins, slugging a pair of home runs as part of a 2-4 effort in which he scored three runs, logged three RBI, and walked once. Gregorius is off to a scorching start to the season, boasting a batting average of .327 (.446 OBP) along with five homers, 16 RBI, 14 runs scored, and a pair of stolen bases. In large part due to a 5% strikeout rate (14.3% career K%), he entered play on Monday with a .262 BABIP while walking at a career-high rate of 18.3% (5.8% career BB%). The batted-ball profile is just as eye-opening, as he has logged a 35.6% hard-hit rate (23.1% last year and 23.9% career) and a 51.1% fly-ball rate (43.8% last year and 40.4% career) to go along with a HR/FB rate (13%) not far off his 2017 rate (12.1%). The absurd peripherals indicate that there will be some regression toward the mean for Gregorius, but one has to like those batted-ball rates for a player who calls Yankee Stadium home.
Mallex Smith (OF-TB) went 4-4 with a run scored in Monday evening's contest against the Rangers. He now boasts a lofty .409 batting average and .458 OBP on the young season to go along with two stolen bases and six runs scored. Although he's also been caught stealing three times so far this year, Smith is one of the fastest players in the game (his baserunning sprint speed of 29.2 feet/second in 2017 sat well above the league average of 27.0) and has a track record of better success stealing bags (although not great) in the majors and the minors; he was 16-21 in stolen base attempts last season. Finally locked into a starting role, Smith has logged five multi-hit games over his past seven contests and, as he gets on base more, he should have more opportunities to tap into his stolen base potential. He currently occupies the nine-hole in the Rays lineup, but one would think that continued strong performances going forward should move him up the batting order. Smith's average will certainly come down with more at-bats, but as a speedy player who bunts well and is striking out at only an 11.1% rate (career 21.1%) while making more hard contact than ever before (27.8% this season versus 20% in 2016 and 21.3% in 2017), one can't help but wonder if Smith is breaking out.
Reynaldo Lopez (SP-CWS) pitched well again on Monday, giving up two earned runs on four hits and four walks while striking out 10 in six innings of work against Oakland. Lopez now has a 1.42 ERA and 1.00 WHIP on the season, with 21 strikeouts and 11 walks in 19 innings. The 24 year-old flamethrower has been the beneficiary of some tremendous luck this season, as indicated by his 4.61 xFIP and 93.8% strand rate entering Monday's start. Although he possesses some strikeout potential (he posted a 9.74 K/9 in Triple-A in 2017), the control issues are worth monitoring as he also logged a 3.64 BB/9 in Triple-A in 2017 (although he cut that to 2.64 in his 47.2 innings with the White Sox last season) and has walked at least two batters in every outing this season. He has some upside, but his propensity for putting runners on base will catch up to him eventually.
Daniel Mengden (SP-OAK) tossed eight solid innings against the White Sox on Monday night, giving up six hits and a walk while striking out six batters. Mengden now owns a 4.50 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 24 innings of work on the young season, striking out 18 and walking just three during that span. Mengden has actually performed a bit better than his surface numbers suggest, as his xFIP coming into Monday's start was 3.73 and his LOB% sat at just 35.7% (his career strand rate is 62.4%). He is by no means a strikeout machine, but Mengden posted a respectable K/9 of 8.88 at the big-league level in 2016 while never posting a rate below that in the minors. And although he has posted shaky BB/9 rates in the minors (3.95 in 41 innings in Triple-A in 2017), he has been considerably better in the majors since that time (1.88 BB/9 in 43 big-league innings last year and a 1.13 rate so far this year). Mengden strikes me as a boring-but-reliable kind of guy for fantasy purposes who should be a fine back-of-the-rotation option.
James Paxton (SP-SEA) pitched six quality innings against Houston, giving up one earned run on three hits and three walks while striking out seven. The outing was a step forward for Paxton, who now has a 4.57 ERA and 1.29 WHIP so far in 2018 (21.2 innings). That is partly due to a high BB/9 of 3.45 entering Monday's game (he posted a 1.79 BB/9 in 2016 a 2.45 BB/9 last season) as well as a slightly lower strand rate (69.2% this season, 71.9% career). The good news is that Paxton is punching out batters at a higher clip than he has ever before in the majors (12.06 K/9 in 2018, 10.32 K/9 last season) and his xFIP currently sits at 3.93. Some owners may be impatient while he gets things going this season, so I would try to buy low on Paxton before the window of opportunity completely closes.
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