Hi Folks, below is our annual review (2018) on the correlation/predictability for the statistical categories that many of us use in our rotisserie leagues.
Over the next few weeks, many of us are about to draft the fantasy teams that will dictate our state of well being over the summer months! As a statistician, it's my inherent nature to try to stack the percentages in my favor. You can't always be right, but being right more often than wrong can make life a little more manageable. For me, like many of you, that pursuit starts on draft day. With that said, here's my annual posting on using the weighing of scoring categories:
If you play in a Rotisserie league, our software is designed to give you the opportunity to favor the more predictable categories in your league. It's an opportunity to play the percentages of predictability, allowing you to give different weights to each Roto category that are relevant to your league scoring. Within the Setup|Edit League Settings section, select the Rotisserie scoring option and check the Advanced option located above the scoring grid. This option will allow you to weigh each Rotisserie category according to your preference. Although most leagues use an equal weighing for each Rotisserie category some leagues do not. Even if your league uses an equal weighing system, it's important to understand that not every statistical category has an equal predictability.
From a predictability standpoint, here is a recent 3 year correlation in forecasting for each of the following player stat categories :
(See more category correlations by clicking here).
In the statistical term of correlation, the range of correlation ranges from -1 to +1, with 1.00 considered a perfect "fit", the better the fit the more reliable the forecast. A .20 is considered a loose correlation, .4 a good correlation, and .6 a very good fit. Thus we know that there is a higher predictability in forecasting Homeruns, Stolen Bases, Pitcher's Strikeouts, and WHIP. A Category that offers poor predictability year over year includes Batting Average and Wins. While others in the typical 5x5 arena fall somewhere in-between.
Of note when I ran this for the 2018 weights, there was a improvement in the correlation in Runs Batted In and Stolen Bases. On the pitching front, there was a increase in correlation in WHIP and Strikeout in 2017.
For those who would like to play the percentages, for 2018 we suggest the following weighing within these typical categories.
(See more categories for the Advanced settings by clicking here, remember to ONLY USE THE SCORING CATEGORIES THAT YOUR LEAGUE USES!).
Overall, the tweaking discussed above won't change the rankings dramatically, but you will be be increasing the odds of predictability for your team...and whenever there is an statistical advantage to gain, it's something worth exploiting.
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