It is draft time ... Here are a dozen thoughts that hopefully will make tomorrow' draft more interesting for you. I'm not a big fan of trying to project players with no professional experience. You'd be better off pulling Tarot cards on many of these guys. But that's the job this week ...
1) Kyle Wright (RHP, Vanderbilt) will likely be the Twins pick at #1 overall. It won't be because he's the best pitching prospect, that's most likely Hunter Green, but the Twins may think that Wright is probably the best pitching prospect who still doesn't have to return his prom tux. He's closer to being ready, he has good velo (not elite velo), and he has a good, aggressive curve. Looks like a solid prospect without a #1 ceiling. Vanilla pick, but it's the Twins.
2) The Twins may not be right. J.B. Bukauskas, a right-hander out of North Carolina, may be the closest of the college pitchers and he has the potential to pile up the Ks with a predator slider behind his mid-90s velo. I don't like his size and I'm not a big fan of his mechanics and release point, which makes him play even smaller. J.B has not had a good finish to this season so his stock has fallen. Still, there's a lot to work with here for a good development team. If he falls to a team that is good with pitching he becomes enticing
3) Louisville has produced the biggest two-way question mark in Brendon McKay who has shown enough power this season to be viable as a first base prospect while retaining the reputation of a left-handed pitcher with advanced command and a good curve. Brendon is projectable as a mid-rotation starter and perhaps more if he can add a half a foot to his fastball as a pro. His ceiling is higher as a hitter and I'm not convinced the Twins don't take him at #1
4) Hunter Greene (HS Notre Dame) would like to be the first prep right-hander to be picked #1 overall and while most believe the Twins will pass, I find it hard to believe that the decision isn't keeping people in the Twins organization up nights. As a shortstop, Greene is ultra-athletic and highly advanced defensively. Hitting? He's a high school kid. Who knows? But I think the point is moot. Hunter will be drafted as a pitcher mainly because there's nothing at all projectable about his triple-digit velo. It is real. It exists. It's here now. On top of the velo, his fastball has sink with life. He's raw, and there's a long way to go but there is a killer starter in here if someone can bring along two more pitches. Did I mention Hunter is athletic? That should help his development. High ceiling. If you can have your pick of anyone in this draft, I think Hunter is my choice.
5) The next best HS pitcher may be MacKenzie Gore out of North Carolina. Gore is potentially a two-way question as well, but few seem to think of him as anything but a toolsy, athletic dirt dawg pitcher who is hungry to get better. Right now he brings some smooth mechanics that produce the kind of low-effort delivery that could be repeatable, which leads to command, which helps his good, not great, velo play up. Not a super high-ceiling guy, but a team that develops pitching well could make something out of Gore.
6) Royce Lewis out of JSerra Catholic HS in California is a development team's dream. If this were football we'd call him a guy with a motor. He's chirpy, toolsy, loves the game, and he wants to play, win, and get better. Good speed, projectable power, a good hit tool and he gets the game, he understands and wants to understand more. Like all great HS athletes, he's been playing SS but I hope (and think) he will outgrow the position. I see him as a productive power/speed corner OF We'll have 2-3 years to watch him rise up the prospects lists, but don't be surprised if we look back on him as The Player that came out of this draft. Ok, so maybe he's the guy I would stash from this draft if I could ...
7) Speaking of toolsy... And we did so in a complementary way when pinning that label on Royce Lewis. I am not being all that complimentary when I call high school outfielder Jordan Adell, out of Ballard Kentucky a toolsy outfielder. We've seen his type before, athletic, lots of raw power, lots of raw speed, easy to daydream about, but he has contact issues and doesn't bring a natural hit tool to the table. Yadda, yadda, yadda ...
8) Jeren Kendall out of Vanderbilt is a similar player, just further along than Jordan Adell. While Adell is more of a power guy with speed, Kendal is definitely a speed guy with potential power. His speed is a legitimately a plus-plus tool which also makes him a strong defensively. He seems to have sneaky power for his size but it's fair to question how much of a power game he'll eventually have, let alone how much he'll be asked for. If we base his value on his speed, you would like to see a better approach with less swing and miss. That weakens his floor.
9) One of the few of the top college arms whose stock actually rose this spring, Alex Faedo, out of Florida, is more of your traditional pitching prospect, with an old school pitcher's build. Nothing special, but he projects to be part of a major league rotation and should be able to slog through 180 IP on a regular basis. If all goes right he could be a poor man's #2 if pro tutelage can add some velo or life to his fastball, or he makes strong gains in his command. He strikes me as a #3/#4 who can eat some innings and be reasonably flame resistant
10) Honestly, I wouldn't be shocked if Adam Haseley (OF Virginia) was drafted anywhere between the top 5 and the top 30 picks. The prototypical 5-tool player who is not really potentially great with any one of them. Nice player but he may be a tweener. He's probably not good enough defensively to stick in CF and he may not develop ideal corner outfielder power. Doesn't strike me as a large market everyday player. Let's see where he lands.
11) Pavin Smith (1B Virginia) - See: Sam Travis (but with defensive chops)
12) High School right-hander Shane Baz is also one of those players with a wide range of possible draft positions. He's the type of pitching prospect that someone usually gets smitten with and reaches for him. He has got a sinker which is really, like, you know, kind of cool these days, and he has some velo. The ball also comes out of his hand, he has a live arm, his ball pops, or whatever your preferred phrase is for "He's got some zip." Someone could think their development team could do a lot with him and I agree ... But it will need to be the right development team.
