Adam Wainwright (SP, STL) - Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water...Adam Wainwright attacks your ERA. After allowing only one total run over his last four starts, Waino was pounded for nine runs on seven hits and three walks with two strikeouts over 3.2 innings on Tuesday. His ERA shot up a full run due to the shellacking, from 3.79 to 4.82, although his FIP is much nicer at 3.62. Given his 50% ground ball rate and league-average 30% hard contact rate, his .350 BABIP is quite inflated and should regress downward. He doesn't have any strikeout upside though, and his 55% first-pitch strike rate doesn't indicate that his 3.58 BB/9 will be going down in a hurry. Without many strikeouts, he's going to end up allowing a lot of those runners to score, limiting his upside to that of a back-end fantasy starter moving forward.
Scooter Gennett (2B, CIN) - Gennett turned into a legend for one night, becoming one of the unlikeliest players in the history of baseball to hit four home runs in a game. He would finish 5-5 with 4 HR and 10 RBI, including a grand slam off of Adam Wainwright. He is the 14th player in baseball history to have 10 RBI in a game, and the 15th player ever to have a four-homer game. Gennett was flat-out cut by the Brewers last offseason, and has amassed just 122 plate appearances for the Reds this year. After the huge game he's now slashing .302/.336/.578 with seven home runs and 30 RBI. He has upped his pull% to 42% from 35% last year, and his hard contact rate has climbed to 35% from 29%. Even if he does continue pulling the ball for a bit more power, his playing time isn't consistent and his .354 BABIP won't hold. He's a deep-league middle infield option only, but if you played him in DFS you will probably sing his praises forever.
Jacob DeGrom (SP, NYM) - DeGrom was smoked again on Tuesday, giving up eight runs on 10 hits over four innings against the Rangers. He walked just one but struck out only two, although his K/9 still sits at a sterling 11.75 K/9. He has now allowed 15 runs over his last eight innings over two starts. He has sprinkled some stellar starts in between duds this year, but so far the negative has far outweighed the positive as he sits with a 4.75 ERA over his first 72 innings. He has seen major regression in his walks and home run rate, with a 3.75 BB/9 that is much higher than his career walk rate of 2.40 and a HR/9 of 1.50 that is nearly twice his career rate of 0.79. He now has a 20% HR/FB, which if you normalize and look to his xFIP you get a 3.18 mark that is much more DeGrom-like. He has been hit harder than ever, with a 38% hard contact rate, and that makes it harder than it would normally be to predict regression from his current .350 BABIP. He's upped his slider usage 6% this year and has the highest swinging strike rate and lowest contact rate of his career, but we are just left wondering if he's had trouble locating the pitch and is getting crushed because of it. Unless we find out there's something ailing him physically however, DeGrom owners should stay the course.
Chase Anderson (SP, MIL) - Anderson made the most of a favorable matchup against the Giants, flying through 7.2 shutout innings while allowing just six hits and one walk, striking out four. He moved to 5-1 on the year and lowered his ERA to 2.94, looking like a new man from the starter that posted a 4.39 ERA over 151.2 innings in 2016. He has also tacked on nearly a full strikeout per nine from last year, sitting at 8.06 compared to last years 7.12 K/9. He has dropped his changeup usage 5% and has incorporated his cutter much more, up to 13% from 6% last year. His velocity has ticked up a mile per hour, which has helped him achieve his highest swinging strike rate ever at 9.9%. He also got 13.6% whiffs in this start, including an impressive 20% whiff rate on his fourseam. His control is solid and he hasn't benefited from a great deal of luck, although he will certainly allow more homers than he has so far as we move forward, especially pitching in Milwaukee. His ERA will climb towards the higher-3's as his home run rate regresses from his current 6.4% HR/FB towards his career 12.4% mark, but he still makes for a solid back-end starter. His matchup won't be so rosy next time as he heads to Chase Field to face the Diamondbacks.
Aaron Nola (SP, PHI) - Nola finally cobbled together a great start, going eight innings with just one run allowed on five hits and a walk, striking out six Braves. He had allowed nine runs over his last nine innings in two starts coming into this game, so this was very encouraging for Nola owners as he continues to re-acclimate himself following a month on the disabled list. The lone walk is nice to see as he continues to trim his walk rate back towards his career 2.41 BB/9 mark (2.70 now), but he only induced 10 swinging strikes in this outing which doesn't bode well for his strikeout rate to improve from its current 7.88 K/9 territory. His ERA is 4.28 and his FIP is much better at 3.58, so as long as he can stay on the diamond he should be a solid mid-rotation starter the rest of the way.
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