John Lackey-Cubs-SP
John Lackey went 7 IP and gave up 2 ER on 4 H, 2 BB, and 6 K's against the Cardinals. Lackey through 11 starts has a 4.90 ERA (3.89 SIERA). His strikeout rate is 23% and he has a solid walk rate at 7%. His SwStr (11%) suggests that he could see growth in his strikeout rate. Lackey is an odd case because he isn't getting unlucky based upon his BABIP and LOB%, but his underlying skills suggest that he should be better. His true talent is closer to his SIERA, which means that better times like today could be in store. He could be someone to buy-low on given his current stats and age.
Lance Lynn-Cardinals-SP
Lance Lynn went 5.1 IP and gave up 2 ER on 2 H, 4 BB, and 6 K's against the Cubs. Lynn through 11 starts has a 2.97 ERA (4.13 SIERA). He has a 22% K and 8% BB, which is very similar to what he has done over the past couple of years. His velocity is down but he has made up for that with a change in pitch mix. He is throwing his fastball less and his slider more. His SwStr is still 9%, which will allow him to continue to post an average strikeout rate. The bad news for Lynn is that he is going to be extremely dependent upon his batted ball luck, which is currently being propped up by a .204 BABIP. Regression is going to set in at some point and Lynn's true talent level is closer to his SIERA than his ERA.
Kyle Schwarber-Cubs-OF
Kyle Schwarber was 0-2 with two strikeouts against the Cardinals. Schwarber is hitting .163 with 8 HR and 19 RBI. He was recently moved down to seventh in the order, which will hurt his counting stats. Schwarber has the same plate skills as the past two seasons with 29% K and 13% BB. However, the main difference is that he is sporting a .194 BABIP compared to .293 in 2015. He is still hitting the ball hard at 35%, but his infield fly ball rate has spiked to 16%. His O-swing%, zone %, and SwStr% all look good based on his skill set. The point here, is that Schwarber is going to break out of this prolonged slump at some point. He is a legitimate power threat that should get hot sooner rather than later.
Andrew McCutchen-Pirates-OF
Andrew McCutchen was 1-3 with 1 RBI, 1 BB, and 2 R against the Mets. McCutchen is hitting .224 with 8 HR, 26 R, 25 RBI, and 3 SB. He has been hot of late hitting .381 with 2 HR over his last seven games. His batted ball profile and swing rates all look in line with what he has done over the course of his career. He is showing a good eye at the plate with just 22% of swings out of the zone and his zone contact rate is 78.3%, which is down just 1% from his career average (79.3%). His exit velocity numbers are trending upward. He is showing a good eye at the plate and hitting the ball hard, but his traditional numbers are not showing this. Now might be the time to buy low on McCutchen.
DFS Value Play
Jose Abreu-White Sox-1B
Jose Abreu is simply too cheap at $3,500. He is a power hitter that makes a lot of contact with just 18% K. He will not have the platoon advantage, which should keep his ownership down for tournaments. Jordan Zimmerman is no longer a quality major league pitcher. He doesn't miss bats (14% K) and gives up a ton of hard contact (39%). Fanduel: $3,500
This is just a small sample our daily analysis, join our member area for over 80 player updates daily. Click here for details: https://www.insiderbaseball.com/baseballsample.htm Click here to register: http://www.fantistics.com/salesbaseball.php3
