Sean Manaea(SP-OAK): Sean Manaea won after allowing two runs on four hits and three walks with seven strikeouts over six innings Monday vs. the Blue Jays. He has arrived. The left-hander hasn't allowed more than two earned runs since May 15th, a timeframe spanning four starts. He's posting an elite 14 percent swinging strike rate while inducing ground balls nearly fifty percent of the time. The next frontier is in cutting down the 10 percent walk rate and improving upon the 58 percent first pitch strike rate. He's on his way to becoming an elite option and now is the time to buy.
Ian Kennedy(SP-KC): Ian Kennedy lost after allowing four runs on six hits (one homer) and three walks with four strikeouts over five innings Monday vs. the Astros. While those in extremely deep mixed leagues can hold onto Kennedy, standard league players may want to move on. Compared to 2016, Kennedy has seen his strikeout rate dip two-percentage points, his walk rate increase four-percentage points, and his hard hit rate increase three-percentage points. The culprit has been the fastball effectiveness, as Kennedy has allowed a .244 ISO on the pitched compared to a .189 mark in 2016. Hitters aren't chasing his secondary offerings as much, which has forced him to rely on the shaky fastball command. Sell.
Whit Merrifield(2B-KC): Whit Merrifield responded to his promotion to the leadoff role by going 0-for-5 with a strikeout Monday vs. the Astros, ending his hitting streak at 19 games. If you are one of those who shelled out the cash in FAAB this past week, I wouldn't worry; Merrifield's breakout looks legit. Thanks to a new diet and workout regime, Merrifield is tapping into his power potential by increasing his fly ball rate by eight-percentage points from last season while maintaining a plus 35 percent hard hit rate. He's also showing great efficiency on the basepaths, going 6-for-7 in steals so far. While he's still experimenting and may experience ups and downs, Merrifield's plate discipline and contact skills should help him limit the severity and duration and slumps, and with that, maintain a spot at the top of the order. Buy.
Nomar Mazara(OF-TEX): Look to Nomar Mazara ($3200 on FanDuel) as a contrarian play today for his matchup at home vs. Jacob DeGrom. DeGrom's strikeout rate vs. left-handers sits 10 percent below the mark he's posting against right-handers. Add in the 40 percent hard hit rate he's allowing against opposite siders and the favorable ballpark shift for Rangers hitters, and we can see value plays aplenty in the Texas lineup. Mazara has posted extreme L/R and H/A splits that overlap to create the perfect brew for a high ROI today.
David Paulino(SP-HOU): For those creating multiple tournament lineups, it'll be challenging not to work in David Paulino at $6700 today against KC. While Paulino's status in the rotation beyond today is uncertain, what is certain is his ability to miss bats. The right-hander struck out nearly 11 per nine innings across Double-A and Triple-A last season, possessing three above-average pitches with a fastball that sits at 93 MPH. Kansas City is 28th in total offense against right-handers; however, because they sit near the bottom in strikeouts, Paulino may face low ownership today, which could create opportunities for unique lineup combinations in tournaments.
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