German Marquez
Marquez had yet another outstading performance on Tuesday, as the 22-year-old is starting to make a name for himself in the Rockies' rotation. The 6' 1" righty is now 3-2 on the season with a 3.86 ERA, 3.26 FIP and 4.47 xFIP. He's striking out 7.71 batters per nine, and although he may be getting a bit lucky with a 5.0 percent HR/FB rate, his hard hit percentage is better than average, and he is doing a good job of limiting fly balls in general. Marquez has now already a total of two runs in his three road starts (17 IP), and he is a definite start for road matchups. He's even shown flashes in Coors Field, such as his eight shutout innings (8 Ks) against the Cubs earlier this month. There's a lot to like here. This hasn't just been luck.
Michael Conforto
Conforto is on the short-list of breakout players of 2017. With two more homers on Tuesday, he now has 13 home runs, 34 runs, 31 RBI, and a .333/.425/.713 slash line. At this point the Mets are giving him full time, but it took long enough, with his growth seemingly stunted for seasons by a refusal to commit to the clearly-talented youngster. Conforto won't be able keep up a slash line of the Bonds-ian proportions he has now, his .370 BABIP and over 30 percent HR/FB rate suggest as much, but it's not hard to imagine him ending the season as a top-10 to top-15 outfielder in all of fantasy baseball. His 45.6 percent hard hit ball rate (before Tuesday night) ranks 11th in all of baseball, and his walk rate has improved each and every season in the majors. Those who took a chance on the Mets showing some semblence of sanity are being rewarded with Conforto's breakout.
Eugenio Suarez
Suarez wasn't even in the starting lineup Tuesday, but he managed to still stand out, hitting a pinch-hit, three-run homer in the Reds' 8-7 loss to Cleveland. Suarez is already halfway (well just about, 10 out of 21) to his 2016 home run total in 2017, and his slugging percentage is over 150 points higher this season. This is an improvement from a season when Suarez hit a career-high 21 homers and was considered one of the best under-the-radar fantasy players. Suarez is now slashing .302/.378/.566, top-six level production at third base for a player who was barely drafted in mixed leagues this season because no one believed in his breakout. The power might not keep up at quite this pace (23.1 percent HR/FB rate before Tuesday's homer compared to a 12.4 percent career rate), but the rest of the production is here to stay, and at least part of the home run jump can be explained by him hitting the ball harder and the league-wide tendency towards even more home runs. Suarez has a top-15 line drive rate in baseball and is turning into a legitimate top-tier fantasy option right in front of our eyes.
Kyle Schwarber
Schwarber punished yet another baseball on Tuesday, hitting a 470-foot home run, his seventh of the season. Schwarber's slash line is still lacking (.186/.306/.365), but it's worth noting that he has been in the two-spot instead of the leadoff spot in his last two starts and he has a hit in each game. We are talking about the most minute of sample sizes, but it's worth keeping an eye on. As far as the season as a whole, there's plenty of reason to think he won't be hitting this poorly all season. His HR/FB rate is lower than you'd think for a man as strong as Schwarber (and with as good a hard hit percentage as he has), and his BABIP simply isn't going to stay at .224 forever. His plate discipline profile isn't as bad as his 27.9 percent strikeout rate would suggest either, and it looks as though it's just a matter of time (and maybe a matter of spot in the lineup) before Schwarber gets going.
Daily Fantasy
Curtis Granderson ($12)
Granderson has an extra-base hit in three of his past four starts (two of which were homers), as he is beginning to percolate in May. Granderson had a brutal April, but it was only a matter of time before his sub-.200 BABIP and basically non-existent HR/FB rate began to regress to the mean. There's still plenty of positive regression in the future for Granderson and while counting on positive regression can be a dangerous game, his struggles do mean a cheaper price in what should be a nice matchup Wednesday. He and the Mets face Jarred Cosart who is sporting a 2.70 ERA but 5.06 xFIP. It's only a matter of time before Cosart has his blowup game, and it's worth stacking against him until it happens. Granderson is a nice, cheap option but a Mets' stack isn't a bad play overall.
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