Jimmy Nelson(SP-MIL): Jimmy Nelson won after allowing one run on seven hits and no walks with 10 strikeouts over seven innings vs. the D-backs. Nelson is limiting left-handers to a .310 wOBA. And he's posting a 2.56 BB/9 rate. In other words, we are seeing the skills that made him a top-50 prospect four years ago. The effectiveness of his secondary offerings has been key, as hitters are mustering a .133 AVG on his knuckle curve and .111 on his changeup. While he'll battle inconsistencies, Nelson is a must-own in standard leagues.
German Marquez(SP-COL): Rockies right-hander German Marquez won after allowing two runs on eight hits (two homers) and one walk with five strikeouts over 5 2/3 innings vs. the Cardinals. Marquez's 45 percent ground ball rate and 20 percent strikeout rate have enabled him to survive at Coors and the 22-year old is a must-start for the upcoming matchup against the Padres in San Diego. It's unclear what the Rockies are going to do once Jon Gray returns in three weeks, so Marquez's rotation spot is in jeopardy. His swinging strike and chase rates lag behind the stuff, so he could use more seasoning. He has enough upside to warrant a stash in deeper mixed leagues.
Clayton Kershaw(SP-LAD): Dodgers left-hander Clayton Kershaw took a no-decision after allowing four runs on 11 hits (three homers) and two walks with six strikeouts over 4 1/3 innings vs. the Cubs. The ace has now allowed more homers in 2017 than he did in all of 2016. He's allowing a higher hard contact rate, is inducing fewer ground balls, and enticing fewer swinging strikes. What gives? The culprit appears to be the slider, as batters are hitting .250 against it after mustering a .161 AVG in 2016. The velocity looks in tact, and he's finding success with his other pitchers, so look for the hard-working ace to figure out his slider woes and recapture his form before too long.
Yasiel Puig(OF-LAD): Dodgers right fielder Yasiel Puig went 2-for-4 with a two-run homer and two runs scored vs. the Cubs. Puig has suffered from a .238 BABIP despite 34 percent hard hit rate and an otherwise stable batted ball profile. The Cuban star has quietly upped his walk rate three-percentage points while maintaining an elite 107 MPH AVG speed off bat on his homers. He also has the confidence of manager Dave Roberts, and with that, he should have the confidence of owners in standard 12-team leagues.
Julio Teheran(SP-ATL): FanDuel players can look to Julio Teheran ($8300) as a solid tournament play for his matchup against the Angels. Teheran has posted an ugly 4.88 ERA and a pedestrian 6.83 K/9 so far in 2017. But, he's also been unlucky with a 69 percent strand rate and has lowered his contact rate from last season. The new park in Atlanta has given the right-hander fits (.402 wOBA there), but the road has treated him well (.236 wOBA). Add in the fact that Mike Trout will likely be out of the lineup today, and you have the potential for a high ROI contrarian play.
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