Elvis Andrus(SS-TEX): Rangers shortstop Elvis Andrus went 3-for-5 with a homer, a double, two runs scored and five RBIs vs. the Rays. Andrus is the number one shortstop on most player rating systems so far thanks to the power spike and heightened aggressiveness on the base paths. The increases in his fly ball, pull and hard hit rates support the spike in his HR/FB rate. Andrus's chase and swinging strike rates are up, supporting the notion that he's altered his approach to take more chances in certain counts. While the homer pace is likely to slow down slightly, the peripherals support a 15-30 season. Buy.
Alex Bregman(3B-HOU)Astros third baseman Alex Bregman went 2-for-2 with a homer, two runs scored and two RBIs against the Twins. The super sophomore is heating up. That's three homers in his last six games after he hit two in his first 44. Under the surface, Bregman is displaying a similar batted ball profile and plate discipline profile to the one he posted in 2016 with impressive improvements in his contact and swinging strike rates. He has been unlucky with his eight percent HR/FB rate and his .625 BABIP on line drives too; put it all together, and Bregman makes for one of the better buy-low candidates in standard leagues.
Justin Verlander(SP-DET): Tigers right-hander Justin Verlander lost after allowing one run on six hits and one walk with five strikeouts over seven innings against the Royals. JV entered the game with a 29 percent ground ball rate, an 11 percent walk rate, and a 35 percent hard hit rate, all career worsts. The issue has been with the secondary offerings, as they are all playing to a negative pitch value despite an uptick on the fastball velocity and effectiveness. Verlander is a cerebral pitcher who tinkers with his mechanics, and when he loses them, he struggles to find his release point consistently. However, if history is any indication, it shows us that Verlander tends to figure out the moving pieces. He's worth a stash and should work his way back into must-start territory before the break.
Brett Gardner(OF-NYY): Yankees left fielder Brett Gardner went 2-for-5 with two solo homers against the Orioles. After hitting seven homers in 148 games last season, Gardner has hit 11 in 45 in 2017. What gives? While Gardner's 20 percent HR/FB rate is due to regress, the 11 percent increase in his fly ball rate and 10 percent increase in his hard hit rate from 2016 suggest that the regression will be manageable. He's altering his offensive profile and is a must-start in all formats. I wouldn't sell unless receiving 90 cents to the dollar of his current production pace and envision him reaching 20-25 homers.
White Merrifield(2B-KC): Whit Merrifield, one of fantasy baseball's best-kept secrets, has a prime matchup at home today against Matt Boyd. Merrifield has posted a .405 wOBA vs. left-handers in his career (.460 in 2017) with a 46 percent hard hit rate. He has also been significantly better at home with the plate discipline and power numbers. Matt Boyd has allowed a .389 wOBA, seven homers and a 43 percent hard hit rate vs. right-handers in 2017. The venue and the $3200 may scare tournament players away, creating a perfect contrarian opportunity with the scorching hot second baseman.
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