Jason Kipnis (2B) CLE - Kipnis has finally hit his stride after a miserable April and early May, hitting 15-44 with 3 2B and 4 HR over the past 10 games. The stats look pretty awful still, but the underlying numbers for May show him basically coming back to normal: hard contact rate of 34.3%, LD rate over 22%, K rate cut in half to 16.9%. If there's any way for you to still grab him at a discounted price (talk up the shoulder injury), give it a shot. I also like him in DFS on Thursday, batting leadoff against RHP Tim Adleman of the Reds, who has allowed LHB to hit for a .302 ISO thus far in 2017 and for a 250/332/488 line for his brief career. Kipnis is tied for the 4th-highest 2B at $4500, but I view him to have the most favorable matchup of the top-tier.
Sonny Gray (SP) OAK - Fresh off a very solid outing against Boston last time out, Gray was fantastic Wednesday against the Marlins, striking out 11 over 7 innings and recording only one out through the air. The velocity, chase rate, GB rate, and swinging strike rate are all at career bests, and the control appears to be coming back to peak levels as well. There are a lot of positives here despite the raw numbers just coming back into his former territory.....grab him while you can before his value returns to the former SP2/SP3 range.
Jose Berrios (SP) MIN - Berrios allowed three solo homers and little else to the O's on Wednesday, striking out 7 over 6 1/3 en route to his third straight W (and QS) to start his 2017 MLB campaign. He's fanned 22 in 21 2/3 innings over those three starts, walking just 4. The control improvement has been tremendous...if you look at this minor league track record and his performance last season, everything hinges on his ability to throw strikes. He's struggled whenever he hasn't at all levels, but when he's throwing like this he looks like he has every chance of reaching his ceiling as a #2 starter. I'm very bullish here, and I'd try to acquire him where possible, as his value is likely still not as high as it will go....guys with 4 above-average offerings are hard to find (I do count him as having both a curve and slider even if many sites currently don't).
Max Kepler (OF) MIN - Kepler doubled and walked Wednesday, giving him a modest 7-game hitting streak, with XBH in 6 of those 7 contests. Kepler has cut his chase rate substantially this year, helping his AVG and doubly helping his OBP. He's also managed to increase his hard contact rate into the 35% range, helping translate the low GB rate into solid power numbers as well. Still just 24, it's easy to see a very solid regular developing here for the Twins....the BBS numbers are very good even if the distance numbers have not been thus far, and the improvement in his understanding of the strike zone is a critical point in his development as a hitter. I could easily see a 20-25 HR hitter with 10 SB and a solid average in Kepler, making him a solid OF starter in all formats.
Alex Avila (C/1B) DET - When a guy has a 58% hard contact rate and 11.5% chase rate, you pretty much have to start playing him more....I think it's in the rulebook. Avila has been killing it in part-time play this year, hitting 351/474/636 through just under 100 PA while playing C, 1B, and DH. He's 4th in average exit velocity right now, and he's hitting a mere 22% of balls on the ground, maximizing that hard contact. I'm a firm believer in the old Bill James adage that once you present a skill set, you own it. 6 years ago, Avila hit .295 with 19 homers and 82 RBI, hitting the ball to all three fields in virtually equal percentages. For whatever reason, he got a bit pull-happy after that, topping out at a pull% of 52.1% in 2014 and losing his starting catching job by the following spring. The pull% moved back down in sporadic playing time the past two years, and now this year he's back to hitting the ball the other way over 30% of the time for the first time since, you guessed it, 2011. He could very well crater over the next four months as he receives more PT since he has 10 years of pro catching mileage on his legs and he takes a ton of pitches, swinging at barely more than 1 in 3. If I had to gamble on someone in his ownership range though (25.9% on ESPN), he's a very solid bet.
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