Tyler Beede, RHP, Giants
Reports out of San Francisco indicate that Tyler Beede will likely have some eventual (if not immediate) role in the Giants' roster response to Madison Bumgarner's shoulder injury. Tyler is approaching 24 years old and the right-hander has risen quickly through the Giants system in the 3+ seasons since he was their first round pick, 14th overall, in the 2014 June draft.
His development has been interesting because Tyler has presented as a number of different types of pitchers in his pro career and he's often done it in the same season and sometimes the same game. Tyler has good velo in his bag. He can bang mid-90s and pull up a 96mph fastball when needed, but there have been times when he doesn't show that velo. Mostly he sits low-90s and even falls below 90 quite often. It's probably strong to say that he pitches to contact, but he certainly doesn't mind contact and his game isn't based on punching people out.
Let's start with the stuff. In addition to his fastball, Tyler has a pair of excellent secondary pitches a curve and a change. His command is rudimentary and he has control issues with all of his pitches as you can see in his walk rates. What he does do well is parlay his 6-4 (optimistically) frame and his inherent downward plane with a good sink to induce groundballs ... Lots of ground balls ... 60%, 48% and 50% respectively in his three high-minors stat line below.
A couple of times this season Tyler has mentioned after starts that he conserves his velo to be able to go deeper into games and to have it as a weapon late in games. This clip is from MiLB.com after his most recent start ..
"For me, less is more," the Vanderbilt product said. "When I'm not trying to throw hard is when I can tap into some velocity later in the game, which allows me go deeper into the game and set us up for a win."
After a double play erased a leadoff single in the fourth, the 2014 first-round pick allowed the next two hitters to reach before getting Rey Navarro looking to escape unscathed.
"I really was able to trust my sinker to get out of that inning," Beede said. "Whenever I get into a jam like that I don't want to nibble too much. I was able to trust my pitches in the zone, knowing that a ball in play isn't necessarily a bad thing. I was certainly happy with my process tonight."
That would suggest that he has backed off max effort and one would hope that would help him with control and command. So far we are not seeing as much of that as we would like to see. Right now this all adds up to a pitcher who doesn't miss a lot of bats and allows a lot of balls in play. I am generally not a big fan of either trait because when major league hitters put the ball in play these days, bad things happen, especially if you walk hitters at the rate that Tyler does.
If you are going to be a sub-20% K rate pitcher you have to do two things well, keep the ball in the ballpark and not walk people. Something, or some combination of things, has to get better here. Beede need to limits his walks, or punch some more guys out to realize his first round pick potential and to be even be a solid #3 starter. I think he can, and will, do both of those things and if he does, he has the ceiling of a #2 starter (in the NL West while based in San Francisco). I'm not sure it will happen this year and frankly I am not sure it happens at all, but I think that high side exists and is reasonably within reach.
In terms of his call up there may be service time issues in play here. We'll watch the news flow and see what the Giants intentions are. I also think there are developmental reasons to keep Beede in the minors for a few more starts to see if he can make gains in command and control. In 2017 terms, I think a stint in the majors would be a mixed bag, full of learning curve starts. I wouldn't go to the wall for him in a redraft league.
In the long term you have to assume some things to see him as a good #3 or any kind of a #2, but I don't think those assumptions are unreasonable, you just have to understand there is some risk involved in projecting his floor and keep in mind he's unlikely develop into a starter with strong K rates.
Long-Term Fantasy Grade - A-
Jose Berrios, RHP, Twins
I still cringe looking at the stat line of Jose Berrios' 14-start debut last season for the Twins. There's nothing about it that wasn't absolutely brutal. He was savaged by major league hitters. I am not going to say I saw that kind of beating coming but in the final Prospect Central of 2015 I wrote this ...
"The 21-year-old right hander is among the game's better pitching prospects, and the Dominican native is throwback to the Pedro Martinez class of lithe slingers. There are a lot of comparisons to be drawn between the two actually, with the biggest difference being, in my eyes, that Jose's stuff lacks Pedro's unearthly life ... From a prospect standpoint, you should be careful here as well. Jose's stuff is good and he's been getting high marks for maturity and his ability to install what the coaches are giving him for changes, but the overall ceiling here doesn't look super-high. Jose looks like a solid MLB starter, but with the ceiling of a #3, although of late he's been piling up enough strikeouts to cause me to keep an open mind, especially given his age.
Moreover I'm not sure he's a rotation factor for 2016, or at least not at the beginning. He still has work to do at AAA, and he could use another year to fill out his 6-0/190 frame. So I'm not convinced you get a full year out of him next year. Still, he's showing flashes and I think we have to be ready to adapt and revisit our forecast on Jose.
If nothing else, his 2016 stint with the big club has forced us to "adapt and revisit" our forecast. In those 14 starts, Jose averaged 93.3, that's adequate velocity. He threw that fastball 64% (heavy) and backed it up with a curve (-12) and change (-9). Walks were an issue, homers were an issue. Everything was an issue. There's no need to really break it down because Berrios went back to AAA and pitched as if nothing happened. Then he came back in September and got beat up some more.
There was some talk about tipping pitches and hey, I am not discounting that notion, but as I decided with E-Rod in Boston, I am not going to chalk all of Jose's issues up to that. Tipping pitches is easily fixable. No matter, because Jose pitched the WBC this spring and pitched well for Puerto Rico. That stint extended his spring training timeline, though, and left him less than ready to go full throttle to start the season. He has made three very good starts in AAA, throwing 19 IP and if he's not ready to be recalled to the major now, he will be soon.
In the meantime his 2017 MLB stat line has reduced his post-hype-prospect value in many leagues to fire sale prices and he might be available. I am a bit worried about his ability to adapt mentally to the majors (and frankly, rightly or not, whatever is going on with Byron Buxton plays into these worries as well, is this a systemic problem in the Twin's organization), but he remains talented young pitcher and if everything comes together Jose has a pretty high ceiling for a pitcher who still might be available to you. His high side is high enough for him to be rostered in leagues with deep reserves, a minor league element, or if you have a roster spot to roll the dice with for a few weeks.
Long-Term Fantasy Grade - B++
Registered members can click on the following link to see the complete Prospect Central article for this week, which includes other prospects:http://www.fantistics.com/
