Matt Harvey
Before Thursday's start, Harvey looked good on the surface, but there were signs of trouble just below the surface. With a 2.84 ERA and 4.91 FIP heading into the game, maybe it's not too surprising to see that the Braves roughed him up for six runs in four and a third innings. Harvey walked five while striking out just one - as the lack of ability to punch out hitters has dogged him all season. After Thursday's loss, Harvey now has a K/9 rate of 5.46, one of the worst figures in the league. Harvey has still been a bit lucky, if anything, on balls in play, with a .209 BABIP against, and he's giving up a lot of long balls. If you can stay sell relatively high based on his name cachet, it would be better to abandon ship sooner than later. His velocity has trended down (slightly) each game in 2017, and there's not a lot like to here.
Adam Eaton
Eaton and the Nationals offense continued their onslaught on Colorado with 16 more runs on Thursday. Eaton was once again at the helm in the leadoff spot, going 2-for-4 with a home run, a double, two walks, three runs, and two RBI. Eaton is loving the leadoff spot for the Nationals, as he is scoring more than a run a game in a sizzling start to 2017. Eaton now has two home runs to go along with his 24 runs and 13 RBI, and when you add in his .291 BA (.392 OBP) and three steals, he's been one of the most valuable players in fantasy this campaign. Eaton isn't relying on luck for his fast start, as his BABIP and hard hit ball rate are nearly identical to his career rates. His line drive rate is a bit lower, but so is his HR/FB rate, so expect a couple more HRs with a bit lower BA if he continues this batted ball profile moving forward. Eaton's walk rate is at a career high right now, so expect the runs to keep coming, as the Nationals offense won't always get to play at Coors Field, but is plenty talented to bring him around quite often regardless.
Christian Arroyo
Arroyo - a consensus top-100 prospect and the Giants number one overall prospect - was one of the few Giants who could get a read on Julio Urias and the Dodgers pitching staff Thursday in a fun battle of what the future of that rivalry may look like. Arroyo went 2-for-4 at the dish, driving in the lone run of the afternoon for San Francisco. Arroyo has now been up for four games with the Giants and is 4-for-16 with a home run and three RBI. He also has five strikeouts and no walks, but we are obviously talking about the smallest of sample sizes right now. Arroyo was mashing the ball at Triple-A, slashing .446/.478/.692 in 69 plate appearances, thus demanding the call-up. Arroyo has an aggressive approach at the plate, so it will be interesting to see whether MLB pitchers are able to use that against him. As of now, he is owned in less than 10 percent of ESPN leagues, but he's a big enough name that if he starts to click that number will shoot up rather quickly. Hold off in leagues smaller than 14 teams, but short stops that can mash are a valuable commodity. Certainly add him to your watch list.
Dexter Fowler
Fowler collected five hits over the span of the Cardinals' double-header sweep of the Blue Jays on Thursday, bringing his batting average up 40 points in the process. Fowler was able to raise his batting average so much in part because it's still early in the season, but also in part because it was so low before his nine at bats Thursday. Fowler came into the game with a .184 average, a thorough disappointment for owners who thought a move to St. Louis wouldn't drop his value much. It is still early, but the .388 slugging percentage and 8.4 walk rate he is carrying are both significant drop-offs from a 2016 season in which Fowler was a low-key fantasy stud. Maybe the most disturbing part is that Fowler is indeed going outside of the zone a lot more often this season (29.1 O-Swing% in 2017 compared to 19.4% last season) and missing a lot more often (10.6 SwStr% in 2017 compared to 8.0% last season). That has the classic earmarks of a player pressing too much in his first season with a new club. Something like Jason Heyward or Corey Dickerson last year. We've seen how those types of slumps can spiral into season-long funks when the pressure only mounts throughout the season. Now we're not out of April, but the narrative would say to ditch Fowler while some prospective buyers still have faith. With the numbers as they are now too, that might be the prudent move.
Daily Leagues
Freddy Galvis $10
Galvis and the Phillies go up against Kenta Maeda and his 8.05 2017 ERA on Friday, and Freddy makes a nice play. Galvis is riding a nine-game hitting streak at the moment, with multi-hit games in each of his last two starts. He went deep on Wednesday and was recently moved up in the lineup, giving him an extra more at bat in a typical game. Galvis has also seen the ball well out of the righty Maeda's hand throughout his career, having gone 3-for-4 with a home run and two steals in their limited time against each other. Lefties have a wOBA of .450 against Maeda this season and have hit four of the seven home runs he has allowed. Galvis has two of his three home runs from the left-side of the plate in 2017. He's a nice bargain to boot.
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