Brandon Kintzler
Kintzler did a nice job in his first save opportunity of 2017, tossing a 1-2-3 ninth with a strikeout to end the game. Kintzler now has two shutout innings to start 2017, which is precisely two more than most pundits would have predicted before the season. Many folks are down on Kintzler, and while he may not be a top closer, he's a bit underrated at this point. Kintzler isn't going to wow you with strikeouts, but he's a heavy 94 mph sinker and is a bit of a poor man's Britton. A very poor man, but any version of Britton as a closer is a good deal. Kintzler had a 3.48 xFIP last season, the exact same 2016 xFIP as Craig Kimbrel. The Red Sox closer who was drafted a dozen rounds before Kintzler in your draft this year. That says a lot about Kimbrel, but it also says a lot about Kintzler.
James Shields
After a dreadful 2016, Shields was almost certainly excited to start fresh in 2017, and he did so on Thursday, throwing 5.1 innings and allowing just one run on two hits and five walks. Shields also struck out five and got the win. Don't be lured in, however. First of all, we have all of 2016 to look at as a body of work, compared to just one start in 2017. Second of all, note the walks total from above, the five walks Shields surrendered made sure his FIP (6.27) and xFIP (6.33) were not nearly as pretty as his ERA (1.69) in his 2017 debut. All of those numbers need to be taken with the massive "one game sample size" grain of salt, as does the pretty lucky .083 BABIP and 100.0% left on base rate Shields had Thursday. Shields' next start will likely come against the red-hot Cleveland Indians, a matchup I would avoid even in the deepest of leagues. Expect the one-game Shields success to stay just that: a one game success.
Kendrys Morales
Morales hit his first home run as a Toronto Blue Jay on Thursday, and it was the deciding factor in their win over the Tampa Bay Rays. The long ball was also of the grand slam variety, giving Morales his first big moment as a Jay. Morales had just one hit and RBI coming into Thursday's game, but it is obviously very early in the season. Morales had quite a nice 2016 (.263 BA, 30 HR, 93 RBI) despite actually getting a bit unlucky at the plate. Morales had a BABIP of .283 last season despite a 20.1 percent line drive rate and a 41.1 percent hard hit ball rate. If his average is able to creep up a bit higher, into the .280 range, Morales will have tons of value, as he is continuing to hit the ball hard this season (50 percent hard hit ball rate in the tiny sample so far), as the power is legitimate. Add in the rest of the Toronto lineup and a friendly home stadium, and Morales is primed for a big 2017.
Daily Fantasy Leagues (Yahoo prices)
Ivan Nova $36
Nova is a fair price for Friday's slate, a middle tier price for what could possibly be a top tier production. Nova was excellent after his move from New York to Pittsburgh in 2016, seeing his ERA plummet from 4.90 to 3.06 in his 11 starts in the Steel City. Nova saw his HR/9 divide by three moving from tiny Yankee Stadium to far more spacious PNC Park last year, but maybe even more impressive was his control in Pittsburgh. Nova has always had decent control, but it was impeccable in Pittsburgh, as he walked just three (!) batters over 64.2 innings with the Pirates last season. Thanks to that control, his FIP was a sparkling 2.62 in Pittsburgh. Nova faces an improved but still far-from-elite Atlanta Braves outfit tomorrow. The game will take place at PNC Park, where Nova never gave up more than three runs in a start last season.
Kyle Freeland $25
If you're feeling like taking a chance Thursday, Freeland is your man. Really you don't know too know much about Freeland beyond this one fact: he is left-handed. It's an admittedly tiny sample size, but here are the Dodgers' run scored through four games so far this season: 14, 0, 3, 10 - can you guess which game featured a left-handed starter? The last lefty starter the Dodgers faced was Clayton Richard, not exactly a world beater, and he went eight shutout innings against them. This is not a new issue for the Dodgers, as they hit just .213 against lefties last year, by far the worst in the majors (the Orioles were second-to-last at .234). Now, tomorrow's game will take place in Coors Field, and it will be Freeland's MLB debut, but if you're going to take a big risk, might as well take the fun one, right?
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