Kevin Gausman found himself in the hole early, giving up four runs in the first inning alone and requiring 45 pitches to get out back into the dugout. He buckled down after that and would give up just one more run the rest of the way, but his line for the day was still ugly - 5.1 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 4 K. He's now allowed 13 runs over his last 8 IP across two starts, and his owners are using their buckets to try to throw the water back overboard from the sinking ship. With a 17:15 K:BB ratio over 24 innings and a 7.50 ERA, it's hard to blame them. The good news is that the slider he's been working in twice as much this year compared to 2016 - to ill effect - was deployed just 11% of the time compared to 23% coming into the year. The other good news as that he threw his splitter much, much more. 32% of his pitches, in fact, compared to just 9% on the year beforehand. The bad news is that he still got rocked. The splitter, at least, was effective for whiffs, garnering a 29% whiff rate. The slider had exactly zero whiffs, so perhaps this pitch mix will be for the best if he sticks with it moving forward. Things will get better for Gausman; he's never had control issues like this in the past, so whether it's the slider that has him off or something amiss in his mechanics, it'll get ironed out. It's too much at this point to ask for the breakout season many were hoping for, but he can at least reclaim his place as a competent mixed league starter. You might want to bench him until he gets ironed out, but unless you're in a very shallow mixed league, hang on to him. He's slated to take on the Yankees in New York his next time out.
Stephen Souza didn't waste any time taking Joe Musgrove deep, hitting a two-run shot in the first inning. It was his only hit of the day as he went 1-4, but he has been one of the hottest players in baseball through the first three weeks of the season. He has four home runs and 17 RBI to go along with his .347/.424/.613 triple slash. His 12% walk rate is no surprise, but his 26% K% is miles ahead of his 34% mark from last season. If he can maintain that lowered strikeout rate he can be an every league asset with his power/speed combo, so are these gains real? Sadly, the early indications are no. His swinging strike rate is at 13.3%, just a shade under his career 14.6%. His 70% contact rate is also right in line with his career mark, and neither of those signs are encouraging. If you can use this hot start to sell high in a deep league, I wouldn't hesitate to do it.
Michael Fulmer picked up his second win of the year, limiting the Twins to two runs over seven innings. He gave up just four hits and a walk while striking out seven, and his ERA now sits at a tasty 2.88. His current 8.28 K/9 and 2.16 BB/9 are both better than his end of season numbers from 2016. He used his changeup nearly twice as much as his slider in this one, and got whiffs on 33% of them. Between the slider/change combo and mid-90's heat, he should have no problem getting through most lineups. He will see some regression (FIP says 3.56 ERA) as he's got a .231 BABIP and 83% strand rate through his first 25 innings, but combined with a low WHIP and near strikeout per inning, he should continue to be every bit the pitcher that we saw in his AL ROY campaign. He'll face a cold White Sox club at home in his next turn on the hill.
Eduardo Rodriguez had his stuff working exceptionally well in his start, striking out seven Orioles while allowing just one hit over six shutout frames. He did struggle with his control however, issuing five free passes. He'd been deploying his slider 14% of the time coming into the game, but the Orioles threw almost an entire lineup of righties against Rodriguez, so he threw just five sliders out of 108 pitches. Rather, he relied on his changeup and heaters to keep the O's wailing away, netting 17 whiffs with his two seam, four seam, and change. It's encouraging to see that he can rely on that change heavily to keep righties off balance. His 6.23 BB/9 in 17.1 innings is concerning, but his career rate is 3.15 so I'm confident he'll trim the walks moving forward. He should be able to maintain a strikeout per inning moving forward as well with as many whiffs as he's getting, so while you wish he was pitching in a different division, he will continue to be a hold in deeper mixed leagues. He'll face another tough offense in his next start at home against the Cubs.
Matt Bush earned his first save of the season, securing Yu Darvish with a win by tossing a clean ninth with one strikeout. With Sam Dyson on the DL it looks like Bush will (hopefully, finally) be the guy to own in the Rangers bullpen. He's definitely got more "closer stuff", if that's a thing, with an upper-90's fastball and two breakers that ensure him many sexy strikeouts. To this point he's got a 12:1 K:BB ratio over 7.2 innings, with a sparkly 2.35 ERA. To complement the K's, he displayed good control as well as an ability to limit the long ball last year, all of which make up the equation to the sum that is the American dream. Jeremy Jeffress and the recently recalled Keone Kela can be considered handcuffs, but it's murky as to which would get the call in the ninth should Bush falter like his many predecessors.
You can find me on Twitter @NathanDokken
This is just a small sample our our daily analysis, join our member area for over 80 player updates daily: http://www.fantistics.com/salesbaseball.php3 Click here for details: https://www.insiderbaseball.com/baseballsample.htm
