Preseason Prep - March 4, 2017

Dodgers #4 and #5 starters

We still don't know how this will sort out, but attriti
on and performance this month will likely result in two guys bubbling to the top. Julio Urias will likely make in the area of 25 big league starts this year, but how he's handled (starting in extended spring? Six-man rotation?) is still not resolved. So who makes the fifth most starts for the Dodgers this year? This comes down to a hodge-podge of guys coming off ineffectiveness and injury as well as some prospects not named Jose De Leon (traded to Tampa Bay). Scott Kazmir, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Brandon McCarthy are the top candidates, with guys like Brock Stewart and Ross Stripling being dark horse candidates. If I had to guess, I'd say Urias starts in extended spring with Kazmir and McCarthy in the rotation and Ryu opening on the disabled list.

Dodgers corner outfielders

In center, I do expect Joc Pederson to get a chance at everyday playing time despite battin
g .125 in 64 at-bats versus southpaws last year. At the corners, Yasiel Puig SHOULD play every day in right field with left field going to Andre Ethier or Andrew Toles versus RHP and Franklin Gutierrez seeing time at multiple positions versus LHP. This doesn't even factor in Scott Van Slyke and Trayce Thompson, so hopefully things will sort out in the next couple weeks. Right now I do see Pederson, Puig, and Toles finishing 1-2-3 in at-bats among this group of outfielders.

Rockies catcher

We already know that Tony Wolters and Tom Murphy are going to share this job, but the division of at-bats is still very much a question. We know Murphy has more offensive upside, but Wolters is 5-for-8 with spring with a home run while Murphy is off to a 2-for-12 start. Wolters likely has more defensive ability for now, so if he can hit enough this spring to hold off Murphy, Wolters is the left-handed bat and could see perhaps 60% of the playing time. Murphy though is a .266/.341/.608 major league hitter in 88 at-bats and he batted .327/.361/.647 in Triple-A last year. I'd take Murphy over Wolters from a fantasy perspective for 2017, but hopefully the playing time issue sorts itself out prior to Opening Day.

Rockies Left Field

This competition is between the veteran Gerardo Parra and the former top prospect, David Dahl. Both hit from the left side, so there's no platoon situation here. How this resolved is way too early to tell, as Parra is 1-for-8 this spring to Dahl's 0-for-4. Dahl is dealing with a sore back this spring, but assuming he's 100%, he clearly has the most offensive upside after batting .315/.359/.500 in 63 games for the Rockies last year after blowing through the minors. Dahl is a potential 20/20 guy this year who should win the job, but it's not a foregone conclusion just yet. As a side note, Dahl is currently dealing with a back injury that could sideline him a "week or two", which sounds vague and mildly concerning. Continue to monitor his situation obviously.

Giants Left Field

The Giants still have not re-signed Angel Pagan or brought in additional competition, so this continues to be a likely platoon situation, with Jarrett Parker having the better side over Mac Williamson. Each was 4-for-12 through Thursday this spring, but Parker has already socked a pair of homers and a double with three walks, while Williamson has four singles. Parker has had mixed results versus southpaws in his career, but if he can separate himself from Williamson with a huge spring, I suppose it's possible that he could see some time versus southpaws this year as well.

Giants #5 starter

The battle continues, but for now, Ty Blach has the early lead over Matt Cain with Tyler Beede a darkhorse candidate to have his timeline accelerated. Cain has allowed runs in each of his first two starts to post a 9.00 ERA with just one strikeout in four innings. Blach has allowed one run in four innings with three strikeouts. The Giants of course are paying Cain in excess of $20 million this season, so they would love to get some value out of him, but it's also possible this is a sunk cost. Cain hasn't had an ERA below 5.64 since 2014 nor a sub-1.50 WHIP since that same time, but if he emerges healthy and at least semi-effective, the job is probably his. Beede is in the mix according to a quote from GM Brian Sabean last month, but he's also yet to pitch above Double-A where in 2016, he posted a 2.81 ERA. Should be a good battle.

Zack Wheeler (SP-NYM) - Wheeler is starting to look like the poster child for the seemingly small percentage of Tommy John survivors that never make it fully back. Wheeler had the surgery in March 2015, didn't pitch that year, and only tossed one inning in 2016 due to continued soreness. He was expected to compete for the No. 5 starter job this spring, but has already been ruled out of the competition and will begin the year in extended spring training. Wheeler had a 3.54 ERA in 32 starts for the Mets in 2014, including a 9.1 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9, but to me his career is starting to look like it will result in a move to the bullpen. Wheeler has thrown BP this spring and is still tentatively slated to make his game action debut on March 10, but apparently he's not quite far along enough to have a real shot at breaking camp with the club. Robert Gsellman should be the No. 5 guy Opening Day, with Wheeler as an in-season option assuming his elbow holds up.

David Price (SP-BOS) - Price will reportedly NOT need surgery for his sore elbow, and will be treated and shut down for up to 10 days before being re-evaluated. That's probably the best-case scenario after the $217 million pitcher had a visit to the dreaded Dr. Andrews this week. Price isn't out of the woods by any means, as the MRI was deemed "inconclusive". We assume at this point that he has enough time to be ready for Opening Day, but lots can go wrong over the next month. Price took a step back last year in his first year in Boston, posting a 3.99 ERA in 230 innings, though his ratios (8.9 K/9, 2.0 BB/9) remained strong. His velocity dipped over one full mph and not surprisingly given Fenway Park, his HR rate spiked, as he allowed a career-high 30 home runs. Maybe with the elbow he ends up being a buy-low candidate, but he'll carry some risk headed into 2017 either way.

Frankie Montas (SP-OAK) - Montas is competing roster spot this spring, and Thursday's outing won't hurt, as Montas tossed a pair of scoreless innings, allowing one hit with a strikeout. He reportedly hit 97-98 on the radar gun. The A's may opt to start him out in the bullpen after he missed most of 2016 with an oblique injury, but they may continue to build him up in the hopes that his fantastic stuff holds up in a starting role. He has the upside of a dominant closer, but will likely open in Triple-A until the A's figure out what to do with him. I like him a lot in dynasty leagues.

Tyler Glasnow (SP-PIT) - Glasnow didn't do himself any favors Friday as he battles Drew Hutchison for the #5 starter job. He recorded five outs, allowing three hits, two walks, and a run while striking out a pair. Glasnow was coming off an outing in which he struck out six of the same opponent, the Orioles, over just two innings while hitting 97 mph on the gun and not walking a batter. Glasnow walked five per nine innings last year, so the walks Friday aren't exactly a surprise. His stuff is clearly Major League ready after he posted a 1.87 Triple-A ERA last year despite a 5.1 BB/9, but it seems likely he'll head to Triple-A in April to work on that control.

Michael Wacha (SP-STL) - With Alex Reyes out for the year (Tommy John surgery), Wacha appears to have a leg up over the likes of Luke Weaver and Trevor Rosenthal for the #5 starter job. Wacha tossed three scoreless innings on Friday, striking out two. In five innings so far, Wacha has allowed just an unearned run, seven hits, two walks, and four strikeouts. The competition certainly isn't over, but if the Cardinals think his troublesome right shoulder can hold up under a starter's workload, he'll probably secure the job. Wacha has missed time with the shoulder in two of the past three seasons, and is coming off a 5.09 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. It's worth noting that his velocity has remained relatively consistent despite the arm woes, but it may have affected his command more than anything. Regardless, he's off to a good start.

Yoan Moncada (2B-CHW) - It was expected that Moncada would open the season in the minors to polish his game, but with the White Sox releasing Brett Lawrie on Friday. It seems likely that Tyler Saladino would be first in line for at-bats, with Yolmer Sanchez and perhaps Leury Garcia as plans B and C in some order. Moncada has drawn very positive reviews for his defense this spring but is off to a 1-for-9 start after going 4-for-19 in the big leagues last September. Moncada hit 15 home runs, stole 45 bases, and drew walks at a 14.6% clip in 16 minor league games last year, so the fantasy appeal is obvious. He'll probably open the year in Triple-A, but if the hits come early, there are not real roadblocks for his Chicago debut.

Huston Street (RP-LAA) - Street was forced to exit Friday's game early and was subsequently diagnosed with right triceps irritation. He'll undergo an MRI, and depending on the results, he could be questionable for Opening Day. Street was limited to 22.1 innings last year by knee and oblique injuries, posting a bloated 6.45 ERA, 5.6 K/9, and 4.8 BB/9 and hitters batted a Gwynn-like .347 against him. Cam Bedrosian and Andrew Bailey gain a little more value with a Street injury. With Cam Bedrosian dealing with a groin injury, this competition may come down to whoever is healthy and effective at the end of March.

Neil Walker (2B/3B-NYM) - Walker remains a risk coming off back surgery and a 113-game season, but he's off to a nice start this spring, hitting his second home run on Friday to bump him to a stout .364/.364/.909 in 11 at-bats. Walker's 2016 .282/.347/.476 line represented a career-high in OPS with his 23 homers tying his career-high (2014). Project that out over 150 games, and Walker represents a possibility to hit 30 home runs this year if healthy. The key to his success a year ago was his massive improvement versus LHP, a group that he hit to the tune of .330/.391/.610 in 2016 after hitting just .237/.285/.290 the previous season. Maybe that doesn't happen again, but assuming the back holds up, he'll provide plenty of value.

Jose Peraza (2B-CIN) - Peraza's value already shot up after Brandon Phillips was traded for the Braves, but it continues to rise seemingly with every game. He had two more hits Friday and is now 9-for-16 with double, triple, and three stolen bases this spring for a cool .563/.563/.750 slash line. Peraza batted .324/.352/.411 with 21 steals and a 2.7% BB% in 256 PA's for the Reds last year. He's a candidate along with Billy Hamilton for the leadoff spot, and with Hamilton off to a 2-for-10 start, the leadoff role is up in the air, though it's very possible these guys could hit 1-2 in either order. Peraza will qualify at SS and OF in all leagues, and 2B in many leagues as well, depending on your league's rules.

Andrew Benintendi (OF-BOS) - Benintendi had left field all but locked down even before spring training started, but his 4-for-4 effort (two doubles and a HR) Friday just serves to reinforce how much upside he has. Benintendi is batting a cool .400/.438/.933 this spring, and after taking one calendar year to be drafted and make it to the big leagues, the sky is the limit. He didn't miss a beat in Boston last year, batting .295/.359/.476 with two homers in 105 at-bats. He may take some time to come into his power, so temper expectations there to around 15 home runs, but watch this guy play and tell me he can't hit .300 in his sleep. Benintendi was just 5-for-28 versus southpaws a year ago, so that's something to watch, but he has superstar potential.

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