Lance Lynn missed the entirety of the 2016 season after falling victim to Tommy John surgery. He came back late in the year to toss a handful of innings in the minors, and reported no problems. The Cardinals were hoping to ease Lynn back a little bit, but now without Alex Reyes (also lost to Tommy John surgery) and with a bevy of other question marks in the rotation, the Cards find themselves relying upon Lynn to step back up and be a foundational piece for the upcoming season. Lynn had been stellar for the 2014 and '15 seasons, posting ERA's of 2.74 and 3.03 while maintaining a K/9 north of 8. He's also tossed 175 innings or more in every season he's played in the majors, but we'll see exactly how far the Cardinals are willing to push him in his first full year back from surgery. Our projection is for 140 innings, but if the team finds themselves in the thick of the playoff chase I wouldn't be surprised to see him log more than that. He's currently going off boards as the 80th starting pitcher on average, with pick 303. He's going behind the likes of Tyson Ross and David Phelps, which to me is an absolute bargain. He should be able to return you a low-to-mid three's ERA with around 8 K's per 9, and while the WHIP is always a bit bloated, he presents a ton of value very late in drafts.
Randal Grichuk said he got frustrated with trying to alter his approach last year to hit for more contact, and late in the year he gave up and went back to his old ways of just having fun and letting it fly in the box. It resulted in more second half home runs (14) than first half (10), but at what cost? His BB/K dropped from 0.32 to 0.12 from the first half to the second while his OPS rose from .712 to .826, his hard contact rate jumping from 33% to an astonishing 48%. That will lead to a ton of homers but I'm sorry, if it comes with a 37% strikeout rate, I'm just not on board. His OBP in 132 games was .289, and as a result he is looking at a spot hitting near the bottom of the order. He's still young so there's room for progression in his plate discipline, but judging from what we've heard out of him to this point, we should proceed with caution.
Mitch Haniger is an interesting case this year. A 26-year old rookie, Haniger was acquired from the Diamondbacks this offseason along with Jean Segura. It looks like Seattle plans to give him a good long look in the outfield, which is enough to put him on fantasy radars. He has a very nice career minor league line, slashing .290/.370/.490 across 1617 at-bats. A lot of those games were played in very hitter-friendly environments however, and he was getting pretty old for his levels as well. That makes me worry that the numbers are a bit superficial. Nevertheless, he deserves a look in deeper formats as a guy who presents above average power potential (37% hard contact in his 123 plate appearances with Arizona last season) and decent plate discipline (0.44 BB/K).
Jarrod Dyson was shipped over to Seattle from Kansas City in the offseason (Jerry Dipoto was a very busy man this winter). It looks like he'll be leading off for the Mariners, although it still remains to be seen whether he'll be the every day leadoff bat or sit against left-handed pitching, as he's done for the majority of his career. His career wOBA against southpaws is a paltry .269, and while he hit for an uncharacteristicly high .432 wOBA against lefties last year, that comes from an incredibly small sample size of just 29 at-bats, so we hope Dipoto isn't putting too much stock into that. Our projections are incredibly bullish on Dyson, with him pushing 50 steals in an every day leadoff role. It's not often we see a 32-year old part-time player suddenly become an every day option, but he's worth taking a chance on late in drafts. He won't give you and power at all, and very few RBI, but steals are getting harder to come by each year, and he's one guy that can give you a Billy Hamilton type of profile at a much, much cheaper price point.
Matt Harvey pitched a bullpen session and reported no issues with his cranky neck, which is a small positive as we slowly trend towards Opening Day. The former ace made his first start after surgery to remove a rib to help his Thoracic Outlet Syndrome several days ago and was touched up for four runs in an inning and two-thirds. He sat 92-94, which is fine for a first start, but we will want to watch closely to make sure his velo is ticking up as Spring Training wears on. He at least struck out three without allowing a walk, but he was hit pretty hard. He's currently being drafted as the 34th starting pitcher, around the likes of Keuchel, Fulmer, and Roark. If he comes into the season healthy and in better shape than last year (a big if), he can turn a massive profit on that ADP. The downside is that he misses a lot of time again and is generally ineffective, but especially in a shallower league where the starting pitching depth is plentiful, Harvey makes for a terrific upside play.
Jay Bruce went 2-3 in Thursday's Grapefruit League action, with a home run and a double. Bruce is going to wind up being a roadblock for Michael Conforto this year, much to the chagrin of Conforto's dynasty owners. The Mets allegedly tried to shop Bruce in the offseason, but were unsuccessful. Corforto is the younger more exciting player, but he's not so different from Bruce. Neither player is very good against lefties, as Bruce put up just a .289 wOBA against LHP last season and is likely to take a seat when the Mets face lefties this year. He put up 33 HR with 99 RBI last year, which helped offset a mediocre .250 batting average. The power spike was fueled by an increased hard contact rate, which jumped from 35% in 2015 to 38%. His hard contact has risen each of the past three seasons, which combines with a career 45% pull% for upper-20's home run power. It's hard to see him pushing 30 again in a platoon role, but he should once again be an asset in HR/RBI. The batting average is suppressed by a high FB% though, which keeps him from being a big upside play.
Sonny Gray will be shut down for the next three weeks due to a moderate lat strain. This is really bad news for those early drafters that snagged Gray is a rebound candidate as they will most likely be without him for the first month or so of the season. His strikeouts have decreased every year since his debut in 2013 and last year was a complete train wreck, battling injuries and regression to the tune of a 5.69 ERA over 117 innings. There was some really bad luck in his profile, including a 17.5% HR/FB rate that was nearly double what he's allowed in his career, as well as a .319 BABIP that was 41 points over his career average. His strand rate was low as well at 63.9%, nearly 10 points worse than his career average of 72.8%. It wasn't all bad luck however, as his hard hit rate rose from 25% to over 33%, so a lot of that regression was deserved. His swinging strike rate was also a career low 8%, which is indicative of perhaps an even below league average strikeout rate. Those who haven't drafted yet would be wise to avoid Gray, because at this point the downward trends and injuries are simply too detrimental.
Jurickson Profar jammed his middle finger during WBC play on Thursday. He was working with Dutch doctors, but the severity of the injury at this point is unknown. It's unlikely to be anything serious enough to put his Opening Day availability in jeopardy, but it's something to monitor in the coming days. The former top prospect has fallen on hard times due to a slew of injuries in the past few seasons, and now he's going to have to work for playing time on a stacked Rangers roster. The playing time is very uncertain, which makes him a tough draft in 10 or 12 team mixed leagues, but in anything deeper than that he's potentially worth a flier as a bench bat. He's exhibited very little speed or power though, and last year had a wretched 23.9% hard contact rate. Believe it or not he's still just 24, so the light could come on at any time, but don't pay for any sort of breakout.
Andrew Cashner had a setback with his biceps injury and won't be available for the start of the season. He didn't make an appearance in Spring Training, and if you needed another reason to avoid Cashner this season, here you go. He had a 5.25 ERA last season over 132 innings, and moving to Texas wasn't going to help that. His most favorable supporting metric was xFIP, which had him at 4.63 last season, and even with that as a potential outcome he's a hard guy to want to invest in. His 7.3% swinging strike rate was also the lowest of his career, so there's just nothing to like here. Tyson Ross is the only name that could potentially be of interest in the fifth starter role for the Rangers, with other names like Dillon Gee, Nick Martinez, and Chi Chi Gonzalez in the running for the role. Ross himself is still a ways away from pitching however, as he recovers from Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. This is a situation best avoided altogether.
Zack Greinke was clocked at just 89.5 MPH on his fastball in his Wednesday start against Team Mexico, while mostly sitting at 88. This is concerning because at this point last year he was already touching 93 MPH, although he averaged 91.3 with his fastball overall last year. It's something that bears monitoring moving forward, because he was hit early and often by Mexico, yielding two runs on six hits in two and two-thirds innings. It's enough to perhaps push him down behind a couple pitchers in his tier, but Greinke is an incredibly smart pitcher who relies more on sequencing and location rather than velocity. That means that he is more likely to be successful with slightly diminished velocity than a Matt Harvey type of power pitcher, who we saw get crushed when he didn't have as many ticks on his fastball last year as he used to. Greinke is already coming at a discount after a terrible 2016 campaign in which he posted a 4.37 ERA over 158.2 innings. His K/9 also dipped to 7.6 as his swinging strike rate fell from 12% to 10.4%. It's still a very good swinging strike rate, so you could see the K% rebound this season, but it's going to be more important than ever to keep the ball down to avoid giving up home runs like he did last year (1.30 HR/9, career rate 0.87).
Austin Hedges was pulled from Thursday's Cactus League game due to a sore hamstring. It's being labeled as a precautionary move, so at this point it doesn't sound too serious. Hedges has garnered some sleeper praise heading into drafts this year after he had a great Triple-A season in 2016. He hit .326/.353/.597 with 21 home runs in just 82 games after previously being written off as a defense-only catching prospect. He's worth a late round pick as a second catcher in two-catcher formats, but be cautious with Hedges. He put up those numbers in the hitter friendly Pacific Coast League, and we've seen many a prospect put up outlandish numbers in that league only to come up and disappoint fantasy owners. Catchers especially have a hard time producing upon their first callups (Gary Sanchez being a very notable exception) because they have to worry first and foremost about game planning for the opposing teams and getting in sync with their pitchers. Due to the defense before hitting mentality that you often see with young catchers, I'm looking elsewhere for my second catcher.
Albert Pujols will make his Spring Training debut on Friday. The 37 year old DH has been working his way into game shape after undergoing surgery to repair his chronic plantar fasciitis. By all accounts Pujols will be ready to go on Opening Day, which should have him moving up draft boards as we creep closer to April. He's going as just the 19th first baseman according to ADP, even after bashing 31 HR and driving in 119 last season. The RBI count will almost certainly come down in a pretty bad Angels lineup, but he's still posting very nice hard hit rates, sitting at 36.5% last year. He'll still be slow, and he'll still have a suppressed BABIP due to that and his 40% fly ball rate which will keep his batting average down, but at his current price, the power will be very useful.
Jose Bautista hit a thrilling three-run homer in the Dominican Republic's game against Canada on Thursday, finishing 3-4. He's coming off an injury riddled season that saw him bat just .234 in 517 plate appearances, with a solid but un-Bats like 22 home runs (.217 ISO). He still walked a mammoth 16.8% of the time though, so in OBP and points leagues he continues to get a boost when the power and average is down. There is optimism that he'll return to previous form this season however, as last year he still managed a tremendous 41% hard contact rate, which when coupled with a 53% pull% should have led to more balls finding the bleachers. The batted ball profile, including an ugly 18% pop-up rate, will always keep the batting average from being a positive for his value, but there's a very good chance that he turns a profit as the 99th player off the board, outfielder 29.
Byron Buxton has been a trendy sleeper this spring. The Twins have stated that they want him to lead off this year, which is something that will probably (unfortunately) be dictated solely by his Spring Training results. There's very little in-between with him, he will pretty much either be the leadoff bat or hit ninth in that lineup, but either way it's impossible to ignore the risk when considering the reward. The upside is a potential 20/20 bat that will set the table for a solid lineup in Minnesota, but the floor is so low that you could see him in Triple-A for half the season. Many will look back to his September where he posted a whopping 1.011 OPS and scream that a breakout is looming, but the truth of the matter is that he was still striking out 33% of the time with a mediocre hard contact rate of 30%. He also profiled as an extreme pull hitter last year, with a pull% of 48%. While that's going to lead to a few extra home runs, it's going to kill his BABIP and therefore his OBP. Without the ability to get on base at a decent clip, he won't get a chance to steal bases or lead off for the Twins. He's still very young and the chance remains that he could put it all together, but be cautious with him and draft him as more of a lottery ticket rather than someone that could sink your team if he continues to strike out 35% of the time.
Shin Soo Choo had a rough go last year. He played in just 48 games and was dogged by injuries all season. Hope springs eternal however, and at 34 years old, Choo still has a little something left in the tank to give to fantasy owners. Being drafted as the 84th outfielder, Choo presents a choo-choo train full of profit potential. Last year in limited time he was 6-9 in stolen bases, indicating that upwards of 10 over the course of a full season is definitely not out of the question. The Rangers let their guys run, and even Rougned Odor kept getting the green light despite finishing just 14-21 in steals. Choo also posted a massive 43% hard contact rate, and his swinging strike rate and contact rate were all much higher than they'd been over the past few years. The Rangers intend to use his terrific on base ability and will bat him second in that potent lineup, giving him the potential to eclipse 100 runs scored if he can manage to stay on the field for 150 games. He will sit against the occasional lefty and get some veteran rest days, so it's smart not to get too crazy with projecting him, but he gives you 20/10 potential with a ton of runs and RBI, and at his price point even if he misses a chunk of the season, he isn't going to kill your team.
Ever since he was drafted in 2014 I've been a sucker for Carlos Rodon. Our own Walter Kuberski drafted him in the SiriusXM Hosts League Draft, and it made me so happy that I decided to jot down a few words about Rodon. His end of season numbers didn't turn out great last year, but that has led to a great buying opportunity in this years drafts. He threw just 165 innings last year due to a DL stint, and in an effort to manage his innings this season he has been brought along slowly in Spring Training. The plan currently is for him to basically get skipped in what would be his first turn in the rotation, which while annoying is hardly a death nail to his fantasy value. Rodon made great strides in his control last year, cutting his walks from 4.59 BB/9 to 2.95. Another huge part of his progression in 2016 was the increased use of a changeup, which he was deploying around 16% of the time over the course of the final two months of the season. That is going to be a huge step up for him in the battle against right-handed hitters, mitigating any platoon splits (RHH hit for a .342 wOBA against him last year). As the 50th starting pitcher off the board on average, Rodon can give you a strikeout per inning and has a shot at reaching his immense upside this season.
