Pittsburgh Pirates Spring Notes:
How Can a Super Nova Go Unnoticed?
Ivan Nova tossed two scoreless innings, inducing four groundball outs against the Twins on Tuesday. The former Yankee is going as the 72nd SP off the board in early NFBC drafts and I'm not sure why. Moving to the NL to work under the tutelage of Ray Searage has clearly benefited Nova, who posted a 3.18 ERA/3.54 xFIP and a 66:11 K:BB ratio in 82 second half innings. His performance improved across the board during his time in Pittsburgh, and all indications from Spring camp suggest that he is even more comfortable with his new deal and stable situation in the Pirates rotation. If you're able to draft a 200-strikeout pitcher early, Nova makes a solid number 5 starter in standard 12-team leagues with the upside for more.
Kuhling for Value?
Chat Kuhl struck out two over two scoreless innings Monday vs. the Blue Jays. The righty posted a 4.20 ERA/4.53 xFIP with a 53:20 K:BB ratio over 70 2/3 innings with the Pirates in 2016 and looks to have a rotation spot guaranteed heading into 2017. While the nine percent swinging strike rate offers a hint of upside, his 26 percent chase rate raises alarms and the .363 wOBA lefties posted against him poses a considerable roadblock to Kuhl achieving his upside. With Tyler Glasnow likely starting the year at Triple-A, Kuhl has some leash, but his limited upside makes him best suited for deeper leagues. Drew Hutchison has more upside, but greater risk, which makes him the better play at the back end of standard league rotations.
Philadelphia Phillies Spring Notes:
King for a Day?
Scott Kingery went 3-for-4 with a homer and a double vs. the Orioles, continuing to make a strong Spring impression on Pete Mackanin. The speedster posted a strong 2016 across two levels in the minors, stealing 30 bases and carrying a .281/.335/.388 line in 131 games. He did struggle upon his promotion to Double-A and is likely to begin season there, but with the Phillies in rebuilding mode, Kingery could see time in the Majors during the second half. While he isn't as draftable as J.P. Crawford--a prospect we'll look at during the next edition of the Phillies Spring Notes--Kingery is a name to keep on watch lists for those who come up light on speed during the draft.
Mighty Quinn?
Roman Quinn suffered an oblique strain on Monday, but the Phillies consider him day-to-day. While his role is unclear heading into the season, what is clear is the plus speed and on-base profile he brings to the table. In 69 plate appearances with the big club last season Quinn posted a .373 OBP and stole five bases in six attempts while maintaining a groundball heavy batted ball profile. He has to battle Howie Kendrick, Michael Saunders, and Aaron Altherr for playing time, but he should be up early in the season, and if he can stay healthy, 25-30 stolen bases are within reach. This is the kind of pick that's advisable to make for standard league benches.
Miami Marlins Spring Notes:
Volquez a Value Play?
Volquez tossed two scoreless innings Wednesday vs. the Astros as he continued his Spring quest to regain some of the magic he wielded during the 2014-15 seasons. Last season he posted a 5.37 ERA with a 16 percent strikeout rate in 189 1/3 innings with the Royals. So why should we care? Volquez posted a 65 percent strand rate--a mark seven percentage points below his career norm--and a .319 BABIP. He did this while allowing a reasonable 32 percent hard hit rate and a 51 percent groundball rate. Not many pitchers have averaged 183 innings the past five seasons; add his durability to the move to the NL and the expectations for positive regression and you have a respectable back-end starter in deeper mixed leagues and a sneaky points league play.
Should We Care About Chen?
Chen tossed a scoreless inning Tuesday vs. the Mets as he began his quest to redeem himself after a down 2016. Last season began inauspiciously when Chen was struck in the left arm with a comebacker, and he struggled to find his rhythm for the remainder of the season. He allowed a career-high 35 percent hard hit rate and posted a career-worst 4.96 ERA. But, beneath the surface, Chen didn't experience a significant drop in stuff, posting a 19 percent strikeout rate, a nine percent swinging strike rate, and a four percent walk rate. The 15 percent homer-to-flyball rate and the 70 percent strand rate demonstrate that luck was not on his side, and with better health and average luck, Chen should re-emerge as a solid mid-rotation option in standard leagues.
Notes from Around the League:
Luke Weaver (SP-STL): Weaver was removed from his Spring start with back spasms and is day-to-day. While the Alex Reyes injury opened the door for Weaver to emerge in the Cardinals rotation plans, he'll likely have to overcome one of Mike Leake, Lance Lynn, and Michael Wacha to earn his shot. While that may not happen out of the gates, Weaver is definitely the first in line should injury or ineffectiveness hit any part of the rotation. Beneath the surface the youngster dazzled during his 2016 debut, posting a 27 percent strikeout rate. The 21 percent homer-to-flyball bloated his ERA to 5.34, and as his xFIP of 3.34 shows, Weaver was quite unfortunate. This is the kind of guy that can help win you leagues towards the latter part of drafts. He'll get his shot.
Josh Donaldson (3B-TOR): Donaldson took BP for the first time since injuring his calf. While there is no timetable for return, manager John Gibbons sounded optimistic that his third baseman is on track for opening day. Donaldson posted a .403 wOBA in 2016 while hitting 37 homers, but warning signs appeared; he saw a significant dip in his average distance on homers and average speed off bat numbers; and he played through several nagging injuries throughout the season. He's a gamer, and is a worthy first round pick, but the downward pressure on his homer-to-flyball rate, the accumulation of injuries, and his lack of speed will likely lead me to pass at such a price.
Hanley Ramirez (1B-BOS): HANRAM is likely to get more testing on the sore right shoulder that has been ailing him since the start of Spring Training. In 2016 Ramirez played in more than 128 games for the first time since 2012 and he saw a significant uptick in his homer-to-flyball rate thanks to a spike in his hard hit rate and batted ball speed. With the 30/10/.280 potential he brought to the table, I was looking at Ramirez after the elite 1B fell off the board; but, with the uncertainty surrounding his shoulder, I recommend exercising caution. There are too many safer options to consider at the corners to take such a risk in the top 85 picks.
Dylan Bundy (SP-BAL): Bundy allowed two runs (one earned) on two hits and no walks with two strikeouts over two innings Wednesday against the Red Sox. Finally healthy, Bundy flashed the plus stuff in 2016 that made him one of the most highly touted pitching prospects of the last decade. He eclipsed the 10 percent swinging strike rate barrier we like to see and elevated his first pitch strike rate to 61 percent while maintaining a solid 28 percent hard hit rate. Word out of Orioles' camp suggests that Bundy will likely have several starts skipped this season, so while he could reach 160-plus innings with extreme efficiency, paying for it isn't advisable.
Buster Posey (C-SF): Posey was scratched from yesterday's lineup with a stiff neck but is day-to-day and may start today. While 2016 was another solid campaign for Posey, he saw a dip in production across that board that rendered his season a disappointment relative to his price. However, underneath the surface, Posey posted a career-high 36 percent hard hit rate, and his .303 BABIP was 20 points under his career norm despite an uptick in his groundball rate. Manager Bruce Boochy has indicated that he wants to rest Posey more frequently; add this to the emergence of Gary Sanchez and Jonathan Lucroy to the top tier, and Posey's draft day price looks too steep for me.
Travis Jankowski (OF-SD): While Jankowski is going to have to fight for AB's in the San Diego OF with the likes of Manny Margot, Hunter Renfroe, and Alex Dickerson, he is still a worthy pick in the latter rounds of drafts. Jankowski went 30-for-42 in steals in 2016 while posting an 11 percent walk rate and an 81 percent contact rate. His .187 wOBA vs. lefties will likely limit his AB's, but I see him finding enough playing time to steal 30-35 bases, which could prove to be extremely valuable in ROTO leagues.
Robbie Ray (SP-ARI): Ray, who has received a lot of helium in drafts this Spring, walked three in 1 1/3 innings yesterday vs. the White Sox. And while it was one start, yesterday's outing provided a microcosm of why I will likely own few shares of Ray in 2017. While the 9 percent walk rate he posted last season is worrisome, the 16 percent homer-to-flyball rate raises even more concern, especially when considering it was buoyed by an abysmal 37 percent hard hit rate. Very few pitchers have his upside, and I understand the pick at 217 overall; but, given the plethora of safer options behind Ray, be sure you have some stability built in to the top of your rotation before taking the plunge.
Aaron Altherr (OF-PHI): Altherr, who is the favorite to win the fourth OF gig, went 2-for-4 with a double, a triple, and three RBIs yesterday vs. the Rays. Altherr displayed plenty of promise during 2016, hitting four homers and stealing seven bases in 57 games, but issues with contact lead to a .202 AVG. Altherr doesn't chase frequently, and has displayed a willingness to take a walk, so there is upside here if he can wrestle playing time away from Saunders or Kendrick. His is a name to keep in mind in deeper leagues, as the upside is worth keeping tabs on.
Anthony DeSclafani (SP-CIN): Anthony DeSclafani (elbow soreness) hasn't resumed throwing and is set to see the Reds team doctor today. The Reds de facto ace seemed to have figured things out in 2016, adding a tick to his fastball while posting a 21 percent strikeout rate and six percent walk rate in 123 1/3 innings. He continued to struggle against lefties, allowing a .353 wOBA against them, and he often found his pitchcounts rising early in games. If he can correct those issues, DeSclafani has the stuff to be a solid number three fantasy starter, but until he can prove his durability, I'd exercise extreme caution when drafting.
Wellington Castillo (C-BAL): Beef Wellington went 2-for-3 with two runs scored and one RBI against the Red Sox to continue his solid start to Spring. He posted an elite 40 percent hard hit rate last season, but minor injuries and managerial decisions to sit him masked his solid production and created deceiving surface stats. Camden Yards, which has acted as boon to the power of sluggers like Mark Trumbo and Nelson Cruz, should help Castillo eclipse 20 homers and produce top-10 catcher value.
Draft Advisor:
bring our winning strategy (Serpentine /
Auction) to your draft. Our player
rankings adjust as players are selected, adhering to the changing
dynamics of your draft. After a player is selected/drafted, the
software will display/suggest the best players remaining.
Purchase Today!
John Kuberski
Mar 1, 17 at 10:15 PM
Very precise and informative