In our continuing series on the Sabermetric analysis that shapes our Player projections in our 2017 Player Projections Software. Today we'll take a look at some of the indicators that are defining our 2017 Outfielder projections:
Fowler, Dexter The move to STL will hurt his production numbers, as both his RBI and RS numbers should lose about 10% with downgrade in lineup.
Santana, Domingo Domingo Santana is more of the traditional power prospect with plus raw power who seemingly will battle contact skill issues constantly as exemplified with his 32.4% K rate and .190 ISO. The good news is that he did improve on the contact rate slightly last season which does offer some hope for the future. His 39% hard Hit rate and 105 BBS on HRs is elite, and if he can continue to show progression, his 1.7 GB|FB rate is going to keep him in the lineup as his average and Walk rate (11%) is going to be palatable for everyday play.
Springer, George All of Springer's 2016 campaign is legit. Promising young hitter that has settled around a 75% contact rate. The only category that will be difficult to replicate is the 116 RS, our model shows that it should have been closer to 98 last season.
Cain, Lorenzo Injury plagued 2016 season, should rebound, but average Hard Hit rates keep his production in the average range. If you combine his HRs and SBs, he's a mid 30s combo.
Dyson, Jarrod Could be the next 50 SB guy, as his OBP is starting to rise, which means more playing time in 2017. Will need to take a few more walks (8% BB rate), but his heavy 2.32 GB/FB rate keeps him serviceable for semi full time play.
Gordon, Alex Gordon came on strong in the 2nd half with 10 HRs, but only drove in 26 runs during that stretch with a meager .231 BA. BA is likely to rise as his .240 Singles % is well below his norm, but heavy FB rate makes him a 50/50 to register a .260 BA.
Calhoun, Kole Turned it up last season with a 35% Hard Hit rate, but average distance on HRs fell, as did BBS (102). That said his HR/FB rate of only 9% is likely to increase in 2017, which should also aid his RBI count.
Robertson, Daniel Prospect fatigue may be setting in for the now C+ prospect, but underneath the .259/.358/.356 Triple-A line lies untapped upside as evidenced by his 11% BB rate. He should see time in the second half.
Trout, Mike RBI count should have been closer to 116 based on production. 29 HRs from a year ago, may be understated a bit based on his 19% HR/FB ratio, which is on the low side. 105 Batted Ball Speed on the HRs is of course special. Despite the heavy fly ball count (~1:1), his BA does not suffer because of his elite 42% Hard Hit rate, which is among the best in baseball. Then the 30 SB. Rare 5 tool offensive player, best player in fantasy baseball. Of yeah, he's still only 25YO!
Pederson, Joc Solid 39% Hard Hit rate last season with 412 distance on HRs and elite 106 BBS. Did improve on his contact rate of 67% to 75% and reduced K rate to 27%. 13% BB% helps keep him in the lineup and helps RS rate. There is upside in his HR number and could creak into the 30s in 2017, if, and a big if, he can start hitting LHP where he only hit .219 against them (SLG) last season.
Puig, Yasiel Puig posted a .353 wOBA in a second half in which he dropped his IFFB rate by 9%, offering hope for a 2017 resurgence. Playing time will be there if health follows.
Ozuna, Marcell Ozuna was on the way to the breakout season we projected last season before a horrible 2nd half muddled a huge first half. He finished with 23HR/76RBI, but was well on pace to a 30HR/90 RBI season before struggling. . His HR/FB rate dropped to only 9% in the 2nd half, and his BABIP dipped to .229, despite the maintenance of a 37% Hard Hit rate and an increase in contact rate. Surely there was some bad luck at play and a bad wrist at the end of August didn't help. At only 26, lots of upside still available here.
Stanton, Giancarlo His HR/FB rate normalized in 2016 to a still elite 23%. His BBS on HR is the best in the business at a whooping 108.7 (one of, if not the highest ever recorded), and his Hard Hit rate of .43 is not human. Of course the 67% contact rate will always keep his BA in the possible danger zone, but he's a 50/50 because of the hard hit rate to post a BA above .260. At only 27 YO, it's almost absurd that he's just entering his prime.
Yelich, Christian Finally took our advice and lowered his heavy GB rates from 4.16 to 2.82 GB|FB rates, and the net was a jump in HRs from 7 to 21. That said he's going to need to increase swing even more or that 21 HR season from 2016 is not going to be sustainable with a 24% hr/fb rate. Super solid 38% Hard Hit rate makes his .291 Singles % legit. Perennial 300 BA hitter.
Braun, Ryan HR/FB rate took a big jump last season back to his PED years of 29%.A very promising sign as his bat speed has picked up after the lull of 2013 and 2014.. Solid 81% contact rate for power guy. That said his Hard Hit rate and BBS translate to more of a 19-20% HR/FB rate.
Davis, Khris Who would have expected this "Chris" Davis to be the one with the better numbers in 2016? Davis absolutely tore the cover off the ball last season with a 39% Hard Hit rate and 105 BBS, both elite. That said the 27% HR/FB rate is elevated and should fall into the 20-22% range in 2017. He doesn't steal bases and the BA is going to hurt a bit as he's a FB hitter (1:1) with a 68% contact rate. RBI count is legit, but RS may see a drop in %.
Gomez, Carlos Unlucky Singles% of only 247 was less than his norm, and that should correct itself in 2017. Although his BBS speed on HRs is still elite (106 last season) his "Hard" hit rate continues to be less than what was once his norm. An indication that he's still not focusing on a daily basis. Has been underutilized as a base stealer, 18 of 23, is a sign that he should be taking off more often. Has shown the ability to be a much better hitter, but so now draft him on the low end with the surprise upside.
Parra, Gerardo Struggled last year, but a lot of that had to do with a very unlucky 217 Singles%, which is about 40 points lower than his norm. A nice bounce back in BA is expected as well as a boost in RS.
Arcia, Oswaldo Still figuring out LHP. Will need to improve 65% contact rate to stay in lineup. In limited activity last season, his swing rate on pitches outside of the K zone improved 37%, and 78% contact rate when in the zone. Has the power to hit 25-30 in future, but BA, RBI, and RS count will not be very appealing.
Kepler, Max Overall has a solid rookie campaign with his 17 HR/63 RBI season with less than 400 Abs. Still finding his way verse LHP (.322 SLG), and will need to overcome that to be everyday player in 2017. 81% contact rate was impressive for a 23 YO.
