Preseason Prep - February 24, 2017

Where Does He Play?

Evan Gattis is fresh off a season in which he hit 32 home runs and will be returning to the friendly confines of Minute Maid Park for 2017. So why does it seem like Gattis has become "must avoid" in the world of fantasy baseball? The biggest reason is playing time. Gattis played in 128 games last season, collecting 499 plate appearances along the way. During the offseason, the Astros brought a pair of ex-Yankees to town who should combine to take a significant chunk out of that playing time, however. In 2016, Gattis started 68 games at DH. That's Carlos Beltran's role for Houston this year. The 39-year-old will inevitably need some days off, but Beltran is coming off a season in which he played 151 games and hit 29 home runs (with an OPS+ of 122). It's hard to imagine Gattis getting more than 40 starts at DH. In 2016, Gattis started 49 games behind the plate. That's Brian McCann's role for Houston this year. Similar to Beltran, McCann is a 33-year-old backstop, so he'll need some days off, but he is also coming off a season in which he played 130 games. In fact, McCann has never played less than 100 games since taking over as a full-time catcher. It's hard to imagine Gattis topping those 49 starts behind the plate in 2017. Toss in a few random starts in the outfield (which is plenty crowded as well), and maybe you can get to 100 games for Gattis, but that's if everything breaks right for Gattis and he stays healthy the whole season. The ceiling for Gattis in 2017 seems to be his Steamer projections (100 games, 21 home runs, 111 runs+RBI), and his FanGraphs Depth Chart projections (78 games, 18 home runs, 91 runs+RBI) seem more likely. Given you can get Yasmani Grandal right around the same time as Gattis, or you can get Wellington Castillo 70 picks later than Gattis, I'm staying away from Gattis in 2017.

Attempt Number Two: Ken Giles

Before the 2016 season on this very website, I was the leading preacher for the gospel of Ken Giles. Even though he hadn't officially won the closer's role, I was labeling him a top-ten closer, and a definite target for all fantasy players. Of course, Giles sucked in spring training, Luke Gregerson took the closer's role to start the season, and Giles imploded in April, ending the month with an ERA of 9.00. So, am I learning my lesson this year? Of course not! I'm all in on Giles once again. Astros manager AJ Hinch has said Giles will "close more games than not," which isn't exactly a guarantee, but feels better than last year. What also feels better than last year is some regression to the mean. Giles gave up four home run in April last season, which was more than he had given up in his entire career (100+ IP) prior to April of 2016. If we take away the long ball (by using xFIP), Giles was actually better in 2016 (2.67) than he was in 2015 (3.05) when he had an ERA of 1.80. Of course, Minute Maid Park can be a troubling stadium for pitchers, but half of Giles' home runs in 2016 came on the road. There's good reason to believe that Giles will see his home run rate cut in half in 2017, which will bring the ERA down with it. If Giles can even have an ERA hovering around 3.00, he'll have plenty of fantasy value. For one, he'll be closing on a team that will accumulate a lot of wins. Giles also had his highest strikeout rate of his career in 2016, an absurd 13.98 strikeouts per nine. Giles is just 26 years old, and his fastball can still touch 100 mph easily. Right now, I have Giles in the second tier of closers with guys like Edwin Diaz and Seung-Hwan Oh.

Ryon Healy vs. Mark Canha: Battle for my irrational love

In 2015, Mark Canha rather quietly hit 16 home runs and had 131 combined runs and RBI in just 124 games. In 2016, Ryon Healy rather quietly had 13 home runs and 73 combined runs and RBI in just 72 games. With both players set to be healthy and competing for plate appearances, who wins the battle of underrated A's hitters?

Power (HR, RBI)

Before missing all but 16 games in 2016, Canha showed some flashes of power in 2015. The 6'1" righty left the yard at a 21-home runs/162-games pace a season after hitting 20 home runs in Triple-A - he has definite 20-home run power. Canha posted a 40.2 percent fly ball rate in 2015, to go along with an 11.4 percent HR/FB rate. His hard-hit ball rate came in at 31.6 percent and maybe most importantly, his pull rate was a nice 42.8 percent. There were no flukes to Canha's power, albeit not the highest ceiling for his power, either.

In his 72-game debut in 2016, Healy left the yard at a 29-home runs/162-games pace. Healy posted an ISO of .219 and a slugging percentage well over .500. However, Healy never hit more than 16 home runs in a season in the minor leagues, and his 16.0 percent HR/FB rate was a bit higher than expected. That 16.0 percent HR/FB rate came despite a lower hard hit ball rate than Canha (30.0% for Healy), with Canha holding the edge in fly ball rate and pull rate as well.

Overall, I'd say this category is a push, with Healy having the higher ceiling, but Canha the higher floor.

Contact (R, BA)

The 2015 version of Canha hit .254 with a .289 BABIP - not great, but not going to kill you. His line drive rate came in below league average (18.1) which means we probably shouldn't expect too much of an increase in his BABIP. Canha's strikeout rate was a bit better than league average (19.8 percent), so I don't see a huge likelihood that the he says the bottom drop out of his BA.

Last season Healy hit .305 in his 283 plate appearances, thanks in large part to a .352 BABIP. There are some serious signs for regression here, as Healy struck out five times more than he walked in 2016, and his line drive rate (19.6) and speed (N/A) aren't going to be able to keep that sort of a BABIP afloat. There seems a strong chance that Healy will see his average drop to the .270 range, and a decent chance that it falls all the way to the .250 range. A hitter's strikeout-to-walk ratio is not the be-all and end-all, but players with that little plate discipline can see their batting averages crater quickly. (Remember Danny Santana?) It isn't just that Healy is aggressive, his swing rate on pitches outside the zone (34.5%) is significantly higher than league average (30.3%), and his contact on those pitches was worse than league average in 2016, as well.

Overall, I'd give Healy a very slight edge here, but only because his ceiling is so much higher than Canha's.

Speed (SB)

We'll make this one quick. Canha stole seven bases in 2015, Healy stole zero in 2016. Advantage to Canha.

Playing time and potential

This is the category that probably explains the vast difference in ADP for these two players. Right now, Healy is going around pick 190, while Canha isn't even being drafted in AL-Only leagues. Right now, Roster Resource has Healy as the A's starting DH, while Canha is on the bench. Healy's strong 2016 is fresh in everyone's mind while Canha's pesky 2015 is a distant thought. Healy is three years younger than Canha and for a rebuilding A's team, that matters. It all makes sense. That being said, I really don't think there is much separating these two in terms of real talent. If you lined the metrics up for the two in a blind resume comparison, the edge might even tilt to Canha. Read this more as an appreciation for Canha in your AL-Only leagues (or mixed leagues if he's finds his way into the lineup on a regular basis) than an indictment of Healy. Healy does have the kind of upside that you can afford to chase in the 20^th round. Just don't be too surprised if Mark Canha ends up with the better 2017 than Ryon Healy.

Youthful Progression vs. Statistical Regression

On a team where a lot of the young talent disappointed in 2016, Max Kepler was one of the rare bright lights. The recently-turned 24-year-old German hit 17 home runs in 113 games, peaking with a scorching hot July before fading a bit down the stretch. From June 19 to August 3, Kepler slashed .288/.373/.662 with 14 home runs and 41 RBI in a 38-game stretch that included a 2 HR/7 RBI and 3 HR/6 RBI pair of games that was enough to win you a couple weeks in head-to-head if you were lucky enough to have Kepler on your roster. After that August 3 date, however, Kepler slashed just .203/.266/.273 in 49 games, with just two home runs and 15 RBI. So was this a matter of a rookie simply never having played a season this long losing his legs down the stretch, or was it the far more insidious regression to the mean giving us a sign to stay away from Kepler in 2017. As is often the case, it was likely a bit of both. Kepler's games played since coming to the Twins organization in 2010 read as such: 37, 50, 59, 79, 120, 121, 143. It's very feasible that Kepler merely ran out of gas after such an amazing start to his Twins career. Looking at his monthly splits, Kepler saw his HR/FB rate tank in September and October, despite hitting fly balls at basically the same rate. That certainly has the look of a hitter who is just worn out. Interestingly enough because of the nice bit of batted ball luck Kepler had in the middle of the season, his net luck was just about what we would expect. He sported a HR/FB rate of 15.2 percent for the entire season, seemingly in line with his 33 percent hard hit ball rate. His BABIP is actually due for a bit of positive regression, as it fell all the way to .261 by season's end. Despite being just 24 years old, Kepler actually seems like one of the truest low-ceiling/high-floor guys you can find late in the draft. I'd be shocked if his BA ended up anywhere outside the range of .260-.275 and I'd feel the same if his home runs ended up outside the 17-22 range. Given his current ADP (~250), Kepler is a nice safe play for your final pick in a 10-team mixed league if you feel like you've taken enough risks in the rounds before.

Lord Byron Buxton

At this point, we all know about the impressive end to 2016 that Buxton had. In his third call-up to the bigs, the former number one overall prospect finally looked as if he had it all figured out, slashing .287/.357/.653 in 29 games. He hit nine home runs and had 46 combined runs and RBI. However, as has been pointed out, he did this in September, a time in which league-wide pitching is at its worst thanks to rosters expanding. Buxton has never had any issues hitting in the minor leagues, so if he was simply feasting on a diet of lesser pitchers, should we actually be excited for 2017 Buxton? The easiest way to check this is to simply look at who Buxton was facing when he had his success. Here's a list of the nine pitchers Buxton took deep in September/October: Jose Quintana, James Shields, Anthony Ranaudo, Kelvin Herrera, Danny Salazar, Hansel Robles, Justin Verlander, James Shields (again), and Chris Sale. James Shields, the two-time victim is pretty washed at this point, and Anthony Ranaudo isn't winning any Cy Young Awards any time soon, but the rest of that group is impressive. Sale, Verlander, Salazar, and Quintana are all top-30 pitchers in baseball, while Herrera and Robles are above-average bullpen arms. Given that Buxton had multi-hit games in five of the nine games in which he homered in Sept./Oct., he wasn't just getting lucky with one hit off these guys, either. The one troubling sign for Buxton is that he still struck out 38 times in those 29 games after his final call-up. He ended the season with a 15 percent swinging strike rate, a figure that would be in the bottom ten in baseball over the course of a full season. That being said, Buxton still has the incredible ceiling to be worth a shot given his current price (~pick 175) and the upside that he has and has now flashed at the major-league level.

Player News

Kyle Schwarber

Joe Maddon is doubling down on the "Schwarber as leadoff man" plan. With a loaded lineup behind him and potential catcher eligibility during the season (Schwarbs's shoulder was feeling good behind the plate yesterday), Schwarber just gets more and more tempting. I have found it surprising that the Cubs slugger has appeared on numerous "stay away" lists this season, but I'm fine with it if those articles scare fellow owners off of Schwarber. Schwarber's hit tool is simply too glorious to be kept down.

Zack Cosart

Cosart (knee) is officially back to 100 percent health, according to his manager Bryan Price. Cosart was actually a relatively useful fantasy piece in deeper leagues in 2016, joining the league-wide home run barrage with a career-high 16 long balls to go along with 67 runs and 50 RBI. His .252 BA didn't win you any leagues, but even in the HR Age, 16 long balls from SS can be helpful in NL-Only or deeper mixed leagues. Cosart hit those 16 HRs and had those 117 RuBIns in just 121 games, so if he can indeed stay healthy, it's not unfathomable that he reaches 20 HRs and 150 RuBIns. There were strong signs of improvement for Cosart in 2016, as he posted career highs in hard hit ball rate (31.2%) and line drive rate (20.6%), and his HR/FB rate (10.5%) was far from extraordinary. The improvements come with a good story, too. Supposedly, Barry Larkin simply mentioned that Cosart should aim for the inside of the ball and swing harder. Gotta love when it's that easy.

Adrian Gonzalez

The Dodgers have announced that they plan to give their 34-year-old (who turns 35 during the season) first baseman more days off for rest in 2017. If you needed another reason to stay away from Gonzalez, this is it. One of the best men in baseball, Gonzalez has slipped from his perch among the best players in fantasy. Gonzalez still hit .285 with 90 RBI in 2016, but do to his limited power and the depth of first base, Gonzo was the 15^th-ranked 1B despite playing 156 games. That figure should drop in 2017, and his value should continue to decline with it. It blows my mind that Kendrys Morales is going in the same area. Morales might be worth twice what Gonzalez is worth in 2017.

Luis Valbuena

The word is good on Valbuena and the hamstring he had surgery to repair last August. Valbuena isn't exactly a burner on the basepaths, so as long as that puppy isn't causing him discomfort when he goes for the long ball, his owners shouldn't be too worried. The bigger issue with Valbuena is he will be battling with C.J Cron (the incumbent) in a pretty strong position battle for the Angels. Both Cron (117 OPS+) and Valbuena (124 OPS+) are coming off very strong 2016 campaigns, and whoever wins the job is a definitely an excellent late-round flier. Right now, Cron is going at the very end of ten-team mixed leagues (ADP 258), while Valbuena isn't even getting noticed in AL-Only leagues (ADP 553). I'd target whoever wins the job, and target Valbuena at that price, regardless. That sort of hit tool shouldn't be on the waivers in AL-Only leagues.

Todd Frazier

An initial report of an injured oblique for the White Sox third baseman may have worried some potential Frazier owners in 2017, but the latest reports suggest the injury is not at all severe. Oblique injuries can linger and sap power (similar to wrist injuries), so this is something worth monitoring during spring training, but it's not something to write off Frazier for. Frazier is an interesting case in 2017. On the one hand, his BABIP simply has to regress to the mean a bit, as his .236 BABIP in 2016 was the lowest among qualified hitters and more than 40 points below his career rate. Seeing his BA jump back in to the .255 range would be expected. On the other hand, he probably won't sport a HR/FB rate quite as lofty as 19.0% again in 2017, especially with his hard-hit ball rate trending down overall. All that said, I wouldn't avoid Frazier out of a fear of a trade, he hit 24 of his 40 bombs away from Chicago in 2016, his power plays anywhere.

Max Scherzer

Scherzer will be throwing off a mound on Saturday, a definite step in the right direction for the Nationals ace. Scherzer is dealing with a finger issue, and one that has drafters a bit worried about his lofty spot in 2017 drafts. Honestly, I can't blame them. Pitchers are so fickle that any sign of trouble has me running for the hills. It is still unknown whether Scherzer will be ready for Opening Day, and even if he only misses his first two or three starts, that could significantly eat into his value, as so much of his value come from his wins and strikeouts. I'm not completely dropping off Scherzer, but I'd move him behind Bumgarner and Syndergaard in my SP rankings.

Michael Brantley

Another day and more not great news for Brantley (shoulder). Jon Heyman is reporting that there is no certainty as to whether the Cleveland outfielder will be ready to go come Opening Day. The confusion as to whether Brantley will be ready to go is depreciating his ADP (183), but it's doing so with good reason. Even if Brantley does return relatively early in the season, this is a player who has played in all of 11 games since September 28, 2015. There's going to be a hell of a lot of rust to shake off, and Brantley (29) is starting to get to an age where that becomes more and more difficult. When it comes to whether or not to draft Brantley, it feels very much like a team-by-team assessment. If you've taken a few other risks along the way with injury-prone players or are banking on a bunch of young players to break out, I'd stay away. If you've played it safe the whole way, take the risk on him. We're still talking about one of the smoothest swings in baseball and a player that was a top-ten value when he was last fully healthy, and you're getting him in the 19^th round.

Carlos Gonzalez

According to The Denver Post, it has been all quiet on the contract front for CarGo and the Rockies. Gonzalez is entering the final year of his contract, which means we may finally have consummation of the long-running CarGo trade rumors. This could obviously be detrimental to the value of Gonzalez in 2017. CarGo would be an above-average hitter in any ballpark, but it is Coors Field that makes him truly elite (ADP 49). In 2016, CarGo had an OPS of .966 at home vs .744 on the road. That is not to say CarGo would see his OPS drop to .744 if he were traded, we know now about the hangover effect from Coors on even their own players, but a trade would significantly hamper CarGo's value. With the strong possibility of a trade, plus the always-there questions about health, CarGo is a stay away in 2017.

Pablo Sandoval

After a pair of heinous seasons in Boston so far, there is a bit of buzz that the Kung Fu Panda looks to be in better shape and motivated to put 2015 and 2016 behind him. Here's the thing, though. Even if Sandoval makes a magical return to form and hits like he did in 2014, that's just not that valuable in fantasy any more. In 2014, Sandoval hit 16 HR with a .279 BA and 141 RuBIns. That's basically a Yangervis Solarte line. And remember, that's Pablo's best case scenario. There's simply not enough of a ceiling even if Sandoval does bounce back to warrant any attention.

Zach Britton

Britton is working his way back from an oblique injury right now, which is much better than working through said injury once the regular season starts. That being said, the lingering question of full health come draft day is enough to move him officially into third among the top tier of Kenley Jansen and Aroldis Chapman. Personally, I had Jansen first, Britton second, and Chapman third, but with Britton's oblique, I'll switch it to Chapman second, Britton third for now. That being said, don't be too scared off of Britton, who is as dominant as you'll find in the closer's role. Those top three are in a definite tier of their own.