Nationals Notes:
Welcome Matt? - Wieters signed with the Nationals on Friday, effectively displacing Derek Norris as the starter behind the plate immediately. Wieters has been disappointing for going on 5 years now, never quite living up the hype in Baltimore after a solid first few seasons. Last year was interesting, however, as an excellent LD rate of over 24% was rewarded with a BABIP of only .265. He also posted the 2nd highest hard contact rate of his career along with resurgences in contact rate and FB rate. None of it seemed to matter, but all of that batted ball data does suggest a possible bounceback of modest proportions in 2017, which would likely be just enough to see him sneak into the top-12 behind the plate.
Kan Kelley Klose? - At this moment, Kelley is still the projected closer for the Nationals. I have no qualms about his ability to do the job: he's been steadily improving in both control and the ability to generate swinging strikes for 3 years running now, and he turned in one of the better seasons of any RP in 2016. No, the problem is that the Nationals are rumored to be looking for a closer with a "pedigree", and the first name that is popping up is David Robertson. The White Sox would be a good trade fit, as the Nats have two starting catchers while the Pale Hose appear to have zero, and I could absolutely see Dusty Baker pushing the front office for someone that has saved a bunch of games before (he's already come out and speculated that Kelley might not have the stamina to be a closer, which is perhaps a fair criticism for a player that has had TJ surgery twice). For now, I think Kelley has as much upside as any RP out there, but you've got to go into your draft/auction knowing that the chances that he's the Opening Day closer look to be about 50/50 to me.
Yankees Notes:
Holliday Party - It's easy to be at least a little bit excited about Holliday and a move to the #1 HR park in the majors in 2016. Holliday hit 20 in 2/3 of a season with St. Louis last year, a home park that suppresses homers a bit. Having the DH slot available to keep him healthier in NY, a 30-HR campaign this year isn't far-fetched at all. Between the speed decline and a bit of a degradation in batting eye, a bounceback to the pre-injury levels in AVG would be at the upper end of projected outcomes for 2017, but the likely power increase should still allow him to provide solid value in all formats at the tail end of your OF.
Sever(ino)ing ties with a 2-pitch arsenal - Severino was sharp on Sunday in his first Grapefruit League action, allowing only a walk during his two-inning stint while striking out one. The strikeout came on an 88 mph changeup, a pitch that is likely the key to his ability to hold a rotation spot for 2017. After posting a 3.91 ERA with 21 K in 23 IP the first time through the order in 2016, he managed an ERA of just under 13.00 in subsequent trips through the lineup. Clearly the potential is here, and his competition for the final two spots in the Yankee rotation (possibly outside of Chad Green) lacks anything close to his upside, although I think that upside is more of a 3.75 ERA SP than what he showed in his 2015 debut. He is worth a flyer in deeper leagues right now, but likely not yet in standard-sized leagues.....not until his role becomes clearer later this spring.
Angels Notes:
Boss Skaggs - According to the Angels, Skaggs already has a rotation spot locked up, and according to most projection systems, he's likely to be one of the top two SPs on the club. The velocity jump that he sustained prior to his arm injury was still in evidence during his 10 starts in 2016, and the spotty control is fairly typical of TJ returnees in their first year back in action. Enthusiasm should be tempered a bit, as the Angels offense looks pretty awful, but with an ADP around 113 among SPs, I do like the value here quite a bit.
Value in Valbuena? - As James mentioned Friday, Valbuena is in competition with CJ Cron for the Angels 1B job. As RH-heavy as the Angels are, I would hope that they would see the positives in getting Valbuena into the lineup as much as possible, be it at 1B, 3B, or DH. Valbuena had a very solid 2016 in limimted playing time, hitting 13 HR and slugging .459 in 292 ABs. He posted the best chase rate of his career, and he's particularly valuable in OBP-oriented leagues with a BB rate of almost 13%. He's a very underrated player, and could definitely be a piece of a winning team in deeper formats if he can maintain enough playing time, which I do think is likely given the makeup of the LA roster (covering both the handedness and the health factor).
Player news:
Tyler Glasnow (SP) PIT - Just a week after Clint Hurdle said that Glasnow would have to be extremely impressive to make the rotation out of camp, Glasnow went out and fanned 6 of the 7 batters that he faced from a fairly potent Oriole lineup. He was using his changeup more, and he has incorporated a slide-step in his delivery to "tighten it up a bit". He was throwing 92-98 during the outing, and most importantly he didn't walk a batter. It's early, but the upside here is undeniable, particularly on the strikeout front. Right now he's a great late-round flyer, but his projected value for this year could increase quickly and significantly with another outing or two like this one.
Kendrys Morales (1B) TOR - One name that I think might be quite a bit undervalued this spring is Kendrys Morales. Moving to the Jays from the Royals should already lead to major benefits in both supporting cast and home park adjustment (10-20% bump in HR expected from park effect alone). Add in the fact that by LD% and hard contact rate Morales appears to have been unfortunate in terms of both AVG and SLG last season, and he already hit 270/332/483 in the second half, and you've got a guy that has a very good chance to be a top-15 player at 1B.
Kevin Kiermaier (OF) TB - Kiermaier appears vastly underrated to me heading into 2017. He's currently ranked 61st among OF's in ADP, a year after a 12 HR, 21 SB season in which he missed almost 60 games. He improved his hard contact rate by 7% and cut his chase rate by 5% in 2016, and only managed a BABIP of .278 despite a LD rate of 20.6% (and excellent speed). Heading into his age 27 year, a 15/30 season with an AVG more like his 2014/15 campaigns is no stretch at all, and there may even be upside from there. I'd be thrilled with Kiermaier as my 5th OF in just about all formats, and would definitely look to jump that ADP of around 200 by a round or so.
Devon Travis (2B) TOR - Yes, health is a skill, and Travis has only managed 163 GP in his first two MLB seasons. Still, Travis is just 26, and with a 301/342/469 line with 19 HR and 7 SB through those first two years, the upside potential here is sizable relative to his current ADP. I think he and Schoop have the highest upside outside of the top-10 at 2B.
Dan Straily (SP) MIA - Will the move from Cincy to Miami be enough to preserve some value for Straily? Straily's ERA was over a full run lower than his FIP ERA in 2016, and if he had remained in Cincy it would have been "hands-off" for me, but the move to Miami could give him a chance to replicate his solid 2016. He's no world-beater, but as a pitcher with a mere 32% GB rate, he should benefit from the much more friendly confines in Miami, and he's always managed a solid swinging strike rate (10.2% in 2016). He could be a solid streaming-type SP this season if the control holds together.
Michael Conforto (OF) NYM - Not many players could benefit from a change of scenery more than Conforto, who appears to be the odd man out in a veteran OF in NY once again this year. The almost-24 year old had a hard contact rate of a tick under 40% last season in about half a season's worth of playing time, but the raw numbers weren't there after April, so he alternated his time between putting up a 1.210 OPS at AAA and sitting on the bench at Citi Field. He'd probably be one of the top three hitters on the team if they'd just leave him alone and let him play, but barring the Mets falling out of the race early and dealing one of the vets, it just doesn't appear likely, especially since the only RH bat in the OF is Cespedes, the best hitter of the 3 vets. Conforto's value is completely contingent on playing time right now....if he were to be dealt, or if there were an injury, I would snap him up in all formats in a heartbeat. As it stands now, he's for deep league speculation only. Unfortunately.
Jorge Soler (OF) KC - Soler is still far more tools than skills, but at just 25 he is still worth a speculative flyer in most formats. The most impressive thing to me about his 2016 wasn't the 410' avg HR distance (although that's great), but the substantial improvement that he showed in pitch recognition. His contact rate is still extremely poor (sub-70%), but he dropped his chase rate by over 7% last season while actually swinging a touch more at pitches in the zone. Like it or not, that's progress. There is virtually no outcome for Soler's 2017 that would surprise me. Our .250/25 HR projection looks very reasonable, but if he hit .210/12 or .275/35 it falls well within the range of possible outcomes here. As such, he's a great guy to stash on your bench in most formats to start the year, with hopes for the optimistic side of the Bell Curve.
Matt Moore (SP) SF - Moore is coming off the board as the 51st SP right now, making him an SP5 in standard formats. There is some evidence that pitchers fully return to form approximately 12 months after returning from TJ surgery, and Moore allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in 17 of his last 21 starts in 2016. The velocity was back above 2013 levels and the swinging strike% was back above 10. Sure, the control is never likely to be good enough to vault him into the elite category, but pitching in San Francisco should afford him the ability to provide mid-rotation production a few rounds later than you would normally need to pay for it.
Ian Desmond (OF/1B?) COL - I'm trying to figure out how Ian Desmond in Colorado isn't a top-50 pick this year, after bumping his LD rate by 5% and cutting his chase rate by 3.3% in 2016. His second half was pretty miserable, but as a very likely 20-20 guy heading to the best offensive park in the universe, I'd be inclined to take the gamble in the 4th round for sure.
Dylan Bundy (SP) BAL - Bundy is one of the most obvious sleeper names out there, but let's remember, he's only shown flashes of his projected brilliance to this point. He really struggled the third time through the order in 2016, giving up 6 HR in just 13 IP. He's cautiously adding the cutter back into his repertoire this spring, and keep in mind that the cutter was always graded as the best of his 4 pitches. With a half-season of starting under his belt and a swinging strike% of 10.5 without his best pitch, Bundy's upside is so significant that I'd jump his current #72 SP position by a few rounds in an effort to make sure he's in my group of starters.
