Preseason Prep- February 28, 2017

Jonathan Schoop hit 25 homers last season, 2 more than fellow 2B Jason Kipnis. Schoop also hit 100 singles, and 38 doubles, while Kipnis hit 100 and 41, respectively. Their batting averages were close, with Schoop at .267 and Kipnis at .275. RBI were exactly the same at 82. Kipnis scored 91 runs in 6 fewer games than Schoop took to score 82. That's where the paths diverge between Kipnis, one of the top 2B, and Schoop, who despite some similar numbers, is not near as elite. The starkest difference is where Kipnis drew 60 walks to Schoop's 21. Schoop has developed power but he doesn't reach base often enough when the ball doesn't leave the park. That's how he ended up with a rare 60+ extra base hits but an OBP under .300, which makes his RS count (82) from 2016 not likely repeatable. He does possess Elite BBS on HRs at 106.3 MPH. His 15% HR/FB rate has upside if he can increase his Hard Hit rate closer to his 35% from 2015. Regardless there is value at his current 15th round ADP, and we are projecting 26HRs and 86 RBIs from him this season.

Notes from the Grapefruit and Cactus leagues...

Josh Hamilton seemingly quickly went from "my knee hurts a little when I run" to "Let's have it examined back in Texas" to "there might be surgery in the near future" to "by the way, his left knee was scoped." Recovery time is 6 weeks. Then if the surgery is successful and Hamilton still wants to come back there will be minor league rehab after that. This obviously puts Hamilton out of the DH discussion, which has ripples throughout the rest of the lineup.

Shin-Soo Choo will likely get even more ABS in the DH slot with Josh Hamilton out of the picture. Given Choo's injury tendencies this could be a good thing for his 2017 production. Last season Choo stole 6 bases in 48 games so it is possible that he could push near 20 thefts in a full season of work. He also slugged 7 homers, which make the idea of a 20/20 season not out of the question. Choo is likely to have solid value in leagues that count OBP, even if he has lost a step and some power at the age of 34. His .242 average and .357 OBP were held down by a .288 BABIP, well below his career .342 mark. Watch Choo this spring to make sure his attitude doesn't head south with his decreased playing time in the field.

With Shin-Soo Choo getting more DH at bats, Nomar Mazara will be out in RF more often. This opens up playing time in LF. One of the prime candidates in Jurickson Profar. He seems to be finally recovered from injuries that have sapped his playing time for the past 3 seasons. Profar's versatility (he can play all 4 infield positions as well) is part of what has made him a trade target for other teams. It's also a prime reason that the Rangers are hesitant to part with him. That could work against him nailing down a permanent OF starter spot. Despite being a prime prospect what seems like ages ago, Profar only turned 24 a week ago. His development hasn't progressed as originally expected, but there is still time for him to meet that potential that was seen as a teenager. Watch to see what his role is developing into or if the Rangers are given an offer they can't refuse. Profar's value could change greatly by the time the games are played for real.

In Baltimore, Mark Trumbo dazzled with his 47 homers in his walk year. Sensing a good thing for both sides, Trumbo walked in a circle and ended up back with the Orioles. They were happy to let him be the pull hitting slugger that is his nature. Trumbo managed to increase his FB% to a career best 43.1% and his HR/FB ratio was a whopping 24.6%. It's not just a product of playing home games in Camden Yards, either. He slugged 25 homers, which means (for those of you who are mathematically challenged) he hit 22 on the road. Trumbo made alterations to his swing last season and didn't leave the environment that encouraged that. Another 47 homers might be too much to expect, but Trumbo is a legitimate power source.

The Brewers will have a completely new infield from the one they started with last season. One of the players is a familiar face in a new position. Jonathan Villar began 2016 as Milwaukee's SS but moved to 3B as the season progressed. This year he will be the starting 2B. Villar led the majors with 62 steals last season and will put up outstanding numbers in that category again. He discovered a power stroke, slugging 19 homers, which will enhance his value at 2B. Those homer totals are not a product of hitter-friendly Miller Park, either, as he only hit 6 there. Villar gained the leadoff spot for the Brewers no only due to his base stealing, but also because of the increased times he got on base. His BB% was a career-best 11.6% and his OBP was .369. The Brewers are still rebuilding but with Villar at only 25 years old he is a key piece to build around.

Orlando Arcia starts the season at SS, the place where he finished 2016. Arcia was promoted just before his 22nd birthday with only 100 AAA games under his belt. He struggled some, finishing with a .219 average in 55 games. Part of that was due to bad luck, as shown by a .267 BABIP. Arcia is expected to hit better than he did in 2016 and he has stolen over 20 bases in every full season he's played as a professional. One thing that Arcia will need to work on is getting outmatched less often. His K% has increased at every stop in his career and hit 21.8% in Milwaukee last season. His development will continue at the major league level and the Brewers are not going to pressure him as they rebuild.

Johnny Cueto is yet to arrive at spring training but the Giants don't believe he will have any problems being ready by the time the regular season starts. Cueto has been waiting for a visa for his father, who is ill. Once that come through they will come to Arizona.

Jemile Weeks left yesterday's Cactus League game after a collision at 2B. He walked off the field carefully, but there is no word that there is anything seriously wrong with him.

Todd Frazier is working his way back from a mild oblique strain. He took 35 swings and fielded 35 grounders yesterday. Frazier isn't looking to rush back to game action, targeting a late March return. He feels that will give him enough work to be ready for the regular season.

Byung ho Park has hit 2 homers in Grapefruit League play already. He is looking to come back from being designated for assignment by Minnesota and earn a job back with the Twins as their DH.

Marcus Stroman was looking like a good pick for a Team USA starter for the upcoming WBC yesterday in his outing for the Blue Jays. He retired all 6 batters he faced, striking out half of them.

Matt Joyce has played in 2 Cactus League games so far and homered in each one.

Collin McHugh has yet to throw off a mound this spring. He is experiencing what he describes as a "dead arm." That's not something good this early in spring training.

Draft Advisor:
bring our winning strategy (Serpentine /
Auction) to your draft. Our player
rankings adjust as players are selected, adhering to the changing
dynamics of your draft. After a player is selected/drafted, the
software will display/suggest the best players remaining.  


Purchase Today!