Sabermetric analysis is and has been the foundation of our Fantasy Baseball player projections since 1999. This analysis along with our founding concept of position scarcity, has helped us achieve superior consistency in projections accuracy. All of which can be customized to your league settings in our 2017 Player Projections Software. Let's start by looking at some of the Sabermetric indicators that are defining our 2017 second baseman projections:
2B Schoop, Jonathan Elite BBS on HRs
with 106.3 last season. However Hard Hit rate dropped to only 27%, yet his
21% K rate improved. Did much better against LHP (increase from 313 to 412
SLG). His 15% HR/FB rate has upside if he can increase his Hard Hit rate
close to his 35% from 2015.
2B Schimpf, Ryan Schimpf wasn't on anyone's radar last season as
the 28 YO career minor leaguer came up and surprised a lot of folks with
his 16 HRs in 216 2nd half Abs. Although the 18% HR/FB rate is on the high
end, the 40% Hard Hit rate does say something. He has shown power in the
minors in recent seasons, but at age 28, most discount production. Ryan
posted the highest flyball rate of .30|1 GB|FB rate, which is one of the
highest rates (3 to 1 flyball to groundballs) that you will ever see. When
this is combined with his 74% Contact Rate, we're talking about someone
that is going to drag you down in the BA department, but OBPers should
revel as his 13% BB rate makes him a very viable fantasy producer.
2B Pedroia, Dustin 89% contact rate
with gap power still makes him as a very productive player at his
position. His Hard Hit rate of 32% is about his norm, but the .293
Singles% was about 20 points higher than his norm, so we'll see the BA
back off in 2017. Also he's not likely to break 100 RS in 2017.
2B Castro, Starlin Last year we pointed out his HR/FB rate of only
8% and projected a breakout in the HR category, This year that 15% HR rate
is on the high side and we expect a regression of sorts.
2B Saladino, Tyler He does generate some physical power with his
6-0/190 frame but that hasn't really translated to much game power in the
high minors, although he was on a high-teens pace in AAA in 2014 before he
gave way to TJS last August. Power is not Tyler's game, and neither is
batting average, however he did steal 25+ bases on most of his stops in
the minors. He was a Grade C type prospect coming up.
2B Phillips, Brandon Hard Hit rate rebounded a bit to 27%, but his
HR/FB rate dropped to 9%. RS count was a bit inflated, but overall more of
the same expected to the aging player.
2B Kipnis, Jason As expected both his RBI count and HR/FB rate
increased last season. IN the prime of his career, but don't expect a
build up on last year as the HRs were a significant jump and partially
attributed to the increase in FB rate. Still one of the top options at 2B.
2B LeMahieu, DJ Slugs almost 200 points higher at home. Turned it
up a notch last season with an amazing .348 batting average! A combination
of: 90% contact rate, heavy groundball splits 2.2:1, and a 35% Hard Hit
rate were the main contributors. That said the .388 BABIP is not
sustainable. We say a big increase in his XBH% (5.7 to 9.2), and could
register a nice increase in HRs if he could lift his swing a little more
in 2017.
2B Kinsler, Ian The low in HR/FB rate of just 5% in 2015,
expectedly popped back up in 2016. A big reason for that was the increase
in Hard Hit rate from 26 to 24. 24% is a high for Kinsler, but we can't
expect that to sustain or increase at 35. Unfortunately we can't buy into
the 83 RBIs from last season either.
2B Altuve, Jose Altuve scarified Contact rate (90 to 85) for HRs
(15 to 24). Yet there was an increase in Batting average. The other big
shift last year was the increase in his hard hit rate that increased from
26% to 34%, this is rarely exhibited. The other oddity was the increase in
his BBS from 101.3 to 104, this almost never happens when we see a jump in
HRs year over year. Whatever training he's did last offseason worked! As
statisticians we are committed to the regression to the mean concept, thus
he's going to have to do it again before we can buy into the
sustainability.
2B Lowrie, Jed Heavy Flyball hitter of .8 GB/FB, makes him a legit
candidate to hit double digit HR's, but he doesn't have the bat speed to
make it a viable pursuit. His 287 Singles Rate was well above norm last
season, so we'll likely see his average drop in 2017.
2B Kendrick, Howie Batting Average, but not much else here for
fantasy purposes. Doesn't get on base enough to help RS, and likely slot
in lineup isn't conducive to RBIs.
2B Gordon, Dee Made up for lost time with 30 SB in 37 attempts in just 79
games. Barring injury or suspension, a lock for 50-60 SBs in 2017. Doesn't
take a lot of walks though 3%, which hurts him in the RS category.
2B Rojas, Miguel Rojas improved his BB-rate to 11% at Triple-A, but
at 26, looks to be entrenched as a backup when roster needs arise.
2B Gennett, Scooter His pop picked back up last season and finished
with an expected 11% HR/FB rate. BA is were is should be, but there is
nothing compelling in fantasy terms.
2B Dozier, Brian Had an absurd 2nd half with 28 HR/56 RBI !
Finished with a career high 42 HRs, with an unsustainable 18% HR/FB rate.
Heavy Flyball hitter with average power as evidenced by his 384 HR
distance and 102 BBS. This of course typically leaves his BA at a
disadvantage. Keep out for any news of him moving to the top of the
lineup, as that will hurt his RBI count considerably. Top option at his
position, but don't pay for a repeat of 2016.
2B Murphy, Daniel Superior Contact rate of 89%, with solid contact
(38% Hard Hits). The power production was a quite a surprise, as his HR/FB
rate went from 8 to 12% in 2016. On top of his GB/FB rate went from 1.19
to .87. which places him into the flyball hitter category....which makes
his .347 BA even more surprising. I don't think that the 38% Hard Hit rate
is sustainable as his history suggests a rate closer to 31%. Expect a drop
off all around as 2016 appears to be a career year.
2B Pirela, Jose The 26-year-old has shown good contact and
discipline skills in the high minors and even double-digit pop, as well as
the ability to get well into the teens in stolen bases. He's basically a
"put the ball in play and hope something good happens" type of guy. Of
course, none of that has shown up yet in his brief time in the majors
however, and Jose doesn't really present much of a ceiling offensively.
Worse, he doesn't offer great defense at 2B, or even good defense at SS.
2B Lawrie, Brett Lawie was injured most of last season so we need
to discount his meager 94.6 BBS on his 12 HRs. In 2015, he showed superior
speed on his batted balls of 105 BBS on his HRs. Which suggests that he'll
once again give it a go at 20+ HRs. TO make up for lost bat speed last
season, Lawrie's K rate increased from 24% to 28%, and his GB/FB rate
decreased from 1.49 to .90 (more flyballs). Was this all related to the
hamstring injury?
2B Zobrist, Ben Productive offense behind him netted big gains in
both RS and RBI department. Both of which may have been inflated. The HR
department was slightly elevated at 13% and will likely drop back down to
10% in 2017. Don't pay for 2016 here.
2B Hernandez, Cesar Heavy Groundball rate, with below average
contact rate for a non power hitter. This does give him 270-280 ability in
the BA department. Does offer up some steals, but will have to do better
than 17 for 30 if he's going to get the green light in 2017.
2B Harrison, Josh Upside is in homeruns as his 3% HR/FB rate should
be closer to 7-8%, more of a slap hitter than a HR hitter. Regained lost
the speed component last year, but RBI count was a little inflated.
2B Walker, Neil Singles% was inflated by 30 points last year, and
his 16% HR/FB rate is not sustainable and likely a result of the increase
in Hard Hits which were at a 5 year high. Increase in Abs if healthy, but
production rates will likely drop.
2B Gyorko, Jedd The 24% HR/FB rate is not sustainable, despite the
uptick in his BBS on HRs last year of 104.5 and 35% Hard Hit rate. So
while his BA is in the right range, the 23 HRs in the 2nd half is not
likely repeatable for Gyorko.
2B Spangenberg, Cory Not much power, but will provide some steals.
Solid 79% contact rate in limited activity in 2015.
2B Cano, Robinson Cano reconnected with his previous norms of Hard
Hit rates with 36% in 2016, and the results were fabulous. That said it's
going to be difficult to sustain a 19% HR/FB rate in 2017, as his 103.5
BBS on HRs and Hard Hit rates do not translate. Still premier at his
position, but be cautious not to expect a repeat at 34 YO.
2B Panik, Joe Solid 90% contact rate with impressive 14% ISO. His
overall power is below average (392 Distance and 102 BBS on HRs), but
solid 1.06 EYE with a sprinkle of HRs and SB, make him a better real word
player than fantasy guy. Will provide BA support though, as his .193
Singles% was understated.
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2B Wong, Kolten Shows decent power and bat speed (103.5 BBS), but didn't
hit the ball consistently in the sweet zone in 2016 to elevate his HR/FB%.
Consistently posting a sub par 26% Hard Hit rate. BA has some upward as his .231
Singles% was 15 points lower than it should be.
2B Forsythe, Logan Forsythe is an interesting case of a hitter that came
alive late in his career. He's always had above average batted ball speed, but
what turned his career around was his ability to recognize pitches better than
he had in the past. His contact rate is the same, but his ability to hit the
ball harder more often appears to be the difference, as his Hard Hit rate jumped
from 31% to 36% last season. This is similar to another increase in Hard Hit
rates in 2015. His numbers are sustainable as long as he can continue to square
up with the ball.
2B Odor, Rougned One of the best surprises/breakout seasons for a young
star in 2016. Odor clocked 33 HRs and drove in 88 RBIs. His Hard Hit 35% rate
showed a lot of potential, as did his BBS on his HRs (104). That said his 17%
HR/FB rate is on the high end, but at only 23, there is still upside down the
line. I think like many young stars, sometimes there is a step back before
moving forward. The step back might be with the HRs, but the RBI count is likely
to increase.
2B Espinosa, Danny Espinosa had a very strong 1st half, only to regress
in the 2nd half with 6 of his 24 HRs. Although we saw his HR/FB rate climb to
23% in the 1st half, the drop back to 11% in the 2nd half with a 30% Hard Hit
rate is more indicative of his past. Singles % was 15 points lower than norm so
some upward revision is expected there, but it's still not good.
2B Sweeney, Darnell Shaffer, a C level prospect, The power is there, but
the contact rate is not (58% Contact rate in 120+ Abs.
2B Wendle, Joseph Weddle hit 279 in AAA for the athletics in 2016 with a
21% strikeout rate and 17% iso. He'll needs to improve on the 5% walk rate, but
the 2.20 GB to FB rate that we saw in limited activity will help his batting
average and OBP. He has a low teens HR and SB potential.
2B Muncy, Max A C- level prospect Muncy doesn't possess the power
required to warrant fantasy attention, as he posted ISO's of .115 and .132 in
the upper minors. His ability to draw a walk should earn him a bench role.
2B Fontana, Nolan Fontana posted a .195/.268/.262 line at AAA in 2016 and
offers little fantasy value heading into 2017.
2B Merrifield, Whitley Solid contact rate of 82% last year along with 36%
hard hit rate makes him an intriguing backup coming into the 2017 season.
2B Turner, Trea Turner is part of the next wave of middle infielders that
are redrawing the fantasy landscape. Turner shows impressive power. Last season
in his 13 Hrs, he averaged an elite 407 Distance and 105.3 BBS. Additionally his
35% Hard Hit rate demonstrates consistency. The batting average is not likely to
be above 290 though, despite the hard hit rate, unless he can cut down on the Ks
(18%) or increase the groundball rate beyond his standard 1.3:1 rate. Lots of
keeper upside.
2B Gonzalez, Erik Above average bat speed, but contact rate and
consistency is of issue. Could steal as many bases as HRs, but only project that
out into the teens with semi full time Abs.
2B Difo, Wilmer Difo posted a 12% BB rate, but .103 ISO hints at lack of power.
The C+ level prospect could contribute in SB category, but playing time won't be
there unless traded.
2B Travis, Devon The underlying numbers support the .280+ AVG. Has mid
Teens HR potential but doesn't really steal enough bases to warrant an early or
mid round selection.
2B Mondesi, Raul The B level prospect looked overmatch in debut last
season, posting a 4% BB rate and a 66% contact rate, but brings plus speed to
table and has inside track to 2B job.
2B Moncada, Yoan Moncada struck out 31% of time in AA and struggled
making contact during stint with Red Sox. He displayed willingness to walk in
MiLB, but could use seasoning to work on pitch recognition skills. The Prospect
Central grade A prospect possesses best power/speed combo in minors, but we
don't see him justifying higher price in de-drafts just yet.
2B Renda, Tony Posted a .033 ISO in 67 plate appearances with the big
club. Did demonstrate what he did in the minors--ability to make contact and
walk. He also has ability to steal, but unlikely to find playing time.
2B Valentin, Jesmuel Valentin is a C- prospect who, despite posting a
.706 OPS at Triple-A, has yet to show the secondary skills coveted in fantasy.
He's on the 40-man and could see time in the second half.
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