Yasmany Tomas
Tomas hit his 30th home run of 2016 on Monday night, part of a 2-for-5 game in which he scored twice and knocked in five runs. Tomas now has 71 runs and 80 RBI in addition to his 30 home runs, impressive totals in his first full season in the majors. Of course, there is also the slightly troubling .309 on-base percentage, so which will win out in 2017? Is the 25-year-old poised for an even bigger breakout, or will his plate discipline drag him back to earth. Well the advanced metrics don't paint the most flattering picture. Tomas had a swing rate of 41.8 percent before Monday's game (in which he also struck out twice), the sixth-highest figure in baseball this season. That being said, some of the players above Tomas in terms of highest swing rate on pitches outside the zone show that maybe that is not the death knell it sounds like. The five players above Tomas: Adam Jones, Salvador Perez, Corey Dickerson, Jonathan Schoop, and Brandon Phillips. Many of those players are having solid 2016 campaigns. However, only Schoop has a lower contact percent on pitches outside the zone, a dangerous combination, and one that can lead to the type of streakiness Tomas has seen all season. When a hitter is streaky, and doesn't have the flammability of a Chris Davis etc., they can be a nuisance to roster, and that's my best guess with Tomas for 2017. He will end the year with about 30 home runs again, but there will be long stretches of the season where he is painful to roster. There are better options in the tier where Tomas will rank, ones that won't drive you insane trying to figure out whether to start them or not.
Javier Baez
Baez had himself a big night, going 2-for-5 with a home run and six RBI. Baez now has 14 home runs and 106 RuBIns on the season, to go along with a .272 batting average. Maybe the best news for Baez, though, is that his strikeout rate has gone down from 41.5 percent in 2014, to 30.0 percent in 2015 and now 23.9 percent in 2016. The strikeouts were always the biggest area of concern for Baez, so it's nice to see him making strides. Unfortunately, along with a drop in strikeout rate, Baez has seen a drop in walk rate, from 6.6 percent in 2014, to 5.0 percent in 2015, and now 3.4 percent in 2016. Striking out less is nice, but if you're simply not letting the count get deep enough to challenge the pitcher, that isn't great. And given the fact that Baez's swing rate on pitches outside the zone is actually a career-high this season, that may be the case. And given that, I'm avoiding Baez moving forward. There's too much talent in Chicago for the Cubs to waste time with Baez unless he is really improving at the plate, something it doesn't seem he is doing.
Justin Bour
Bour was a trendy pick for late-round power before the season, but has thoroughly disappointed in 2016. Even after a 3-for-3 night with an RBI and a pair of runs scored, Bour is slashing just .254/.336/.473, but more importantly, has done so in just 85 games, as his health let him down this season. As a result, he has just 15 home runs and 82 runs and RBI combined. If he can stay healthy, though, Bour may be a nice post-hype sleeper next season. Bour has seen great strides in his walk and strikeouts rates in 2016. After posting a 22.6 percent K rate in 2015, that number has dropped to 17.6 in 2016. His walk rate has jumped from 7.6 percent in 2016 to 11.3 percent in 2016. Both are great signs. And is we take his home runs per game played rate, he's still on pace for just about 30 home runs if he can stay healthy in 2017. His batting average slip has been mostly due to a drop in BABIP, which comes despite a higher line drive rate and hard hit ball rate than any other season of his career. If he dropped off some radars, that actually may be nice for potential owners who can get a discount in 2017.
Adam Duvall
Duvall is now up to 33 home runs on the 2016 season, after leaving the yard twice in Monday's Reds win. Duvall scored four times and drove in five during the 15-run outing, a nice surprise for a player who has slowed down off a red hot start. Duvall had 22 home runs in his first 74 games, compared to "just" 11 in his last 70 games, including the two last night. Duvall does have 100 RBI on the season now, and when added to his 83 runs, it's still an impressive season. Given that Duvall has slowed off his original pace, it doesn't seem that ridiculous now to call for a repeat in 2017. His HR/FB rate is far from extraordinary, thanks to his elevated swing, and the fact that he sells out to hit home runs. My biggest worry with Duvall is that his production, in terms of runs and RBI, will slip in 2017, because he is posting unsustainable numbers with runners on base. Duvall was hitting .286 with men on base even before Monday night, compared to just .196 with the bases empty. Unless Duvall is really saving up those best at bats for the most important times, it's hard to imagine him getting back to the 183 RuBIns he has right now. I'd say 80 runs, 80 RBI and 30 home runs are in range, but with limited speed, and a batting average likely to settle around .240 (and a sub-.300 OBP), is that really worth the price you'll have to pay? Probably not.
Daily Fantasy Leagues/Streaming options
Jose De Leon
In the same vein as Matt Moore, De Leon offers a high ceiling, but does come with some risk. After all, the 24-year-old top pitching prospect has only made three career starts. De Leon comes with a top-notch pedigree, however, and has shown flashes already. De Leon has struck out nearly a batter an inning in those three MLB starts, and regularly struck out over 11 batters per nine in the minors. De Leon draws the Padres on Tuesday, which means the odds are in favor of him being a lot closer to his high ceiling than low floor. Unlike some of the other teams out there that have a bad reputation but are actually hitting the ball well of late (most notably the Braves), the Padres have been just as rotten all season. Since the beginning of September, the Padres have the third-worst wRC+ (73) and the fifth-highest strikeout rate (24.8 percent). No other team comes close to matching their incompetence in both fields. De Leon faced the Padres in his MLB debut and struck out nine, a nice sign for Tuesday's matchup.
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