Jose Berrios (SP, Min): Berrios had yet another poor outing against the Royals on Tuesday, lasting only four and two-thirds innings while giving up three runs. The most concerning part, however, is that he didn't strike out a single batter. He's now passed the rookie threshold, having tossed 53.1 innings for the Twins this season. With that are numbers that are plain and simply putrid; an 8.61 ERA, 7.76 K/9, 5.40 BB/9, and 2.03 HR/9. Only one of his 13 starts have been considered a quality start, and that one was 6 IP 3 ER back on August first. There had been some talk that he was tipping his changeup, allowing hitters to sit fastball/change while spitting on curveballs out of the zone (or crushing the odd hanger). Since that word got out, however, he hasn't shown any improvement, so it seems like it's back to the drawing board once again. He has nothing left to prove at Triple-A, with a sterling 2.51 ERA and 10.10 K/9 over 111.1 innings at Rochester this season. Once he puts on the Twins uniform though, he turns into a moldy pumpkin. He's got swing and miss stuff, but opposing batters just aren't reaching on anything out of the zone, swinging only 25% of the time on such pitches. If he can improve his control and get more swinging strikes there will still be a lot to like here, but for now the shine is well off of this former top prospect and he shouldn't be considered as more than a late round flier in mixed leagues next season. Keep an eye on what the Twins do with their coaching staff in the offseason though, as their new GM will most likely bring in a new pitching coach which could help Berrios find the success that has eluded him thus far.
Aaron Sanchez (SP, Tor): Sanchez gave up only one run to the Orioles while fanning 10 over six innings, raising his record to 14-2 on the year. He said after the game that he felt like his success could be attributed to his four-seam, which he felt like he used more in this start than previously, and the numbers back that up. He threw 32 four-seam fastballs in his 103 pitches, good for 31% of his usage. His seasonal average is right around 20%. He has typically relied on his two-seam/sinker more frequently, and while he did still throw it more, perhaps he is learning how to more effectively deploy those pitches to get swinging strikes. A starter that consistently hits 95 MPH while maintaining a walks per nine under three is very enticing, and next year we could see even more growth from him as he learns how to get more whiffs. He's been very impressive in his first full season of starting games, with a 3.06 ERA and 155 strikeouts in 185 innings for the Jays, and there's a chance he will be in a huge spotlight for his next start, which could be in the AL wild card game.
Luis Cessa (SP, NYY): Cessa threw a solid but uninspiring six innings, giving up only two runs and one walk but striking out only two. It's been confounding that Cessa has averaged only 5.57 K/9 over his 64.2 innings with the Yankees this season given his rather obscene 10.6% swinging strike rate. Such a high rate would practically guarantee an uptick in strikeouts at some point, although it won't be something we can watch for improvement until next year. While the swinging strike rate, 1.95 BB/9, and 4.18 ERA are intriguing, there is also trouble looming if he doesn't correct course next season. His .230 BABIP is sure to rise, despite his fly ball ways, and that BABIP plus his elevated 80% strand rate gives him a nasty 5.71 FIP on the season. He has allowed an inordinate amount of home runs though, so with a normalized HR/FB rate his xFIP isn't quite as bad, although it's still far from desirable at 4.76. There is some small sample size noise in here to be sure, and he never had a homer problem in the minors so I'm more inclined to look at his xFIP than anything else. He has good velocity, with a mid-90's fastball, so it's not like he's working without good stuff, making him someone to keep an eye on in spring training next year. As it currently lines up, his final start will be the Yankees season finale at home against the Orioles.
Carlos Gomez (OF, Tex): Gomez continued his ridiculous September, hitting his 12th home run of the season, a three-run blast off of Brewers starter Jimmy Nelson. Gomez has been a terrific reclamation project that has already payed huge dividends for the Rangers. Since joining the team he's hit .274/.353/.519 with seven home runs, five steals, and 21 RBI in 30 games. He's been leading off for the Rangers every game but one since September 10th, scoring 9 runs since then. He can recoup some more of the value he lost earlier this season by putting together a good postseason, although it will be interesting to see what the Rangers decide to do with their outfield and lineup if Choo does make it back for the postseason. Regardless, Gomez is back on fantasy radars for next season. Where he plays will make an impact on how aggressive he's drafted, with perhaps the best-case scenario being him staying put with the Rangers. He's a must-start player over these final days.
Alex Cobb (SP, TB): Cobb got obliterated for the second start in a row, allowing eight runs on eight hits in just three innings against the White Sox. His ERA now sits at a cool 8.59 over five starts, spanning 22 innings. His control has been fine, but he isn't generating the whiffs that he had previously; in 2014 he had an enticing 10.6% swinging strike rate, while this year it's down below 8%. He's not fooling anybody, with a K/9 of 6.55 and five home runs allowed already. It's bleak to be sure, but keep in mind that not everyone comes back from Tommy John and is effective right away (or sometimes, ever again). He's still generating over 52% ground balls, which is encouraging, and his small sample size xFIP is 4.39, nearly half his current ERA. This inauspicious return to the mound will be sure to scare off most everybody heading into draft season next year, but if he can get his velocity back up heading into next year and get a few more swings and misses, he could return to being a back-end starter in a standard mixed league.
As a complete aside, from a personal level I would like to utilize this space to pay homage to the late Jose Fernandez. Jose was my favorite player to watch in all of baseball, plain and simple. His youthful exuberance in the dugout and his fiery passion on the mound made him solid gold to watch from day one, and his slider was so filthy that it was nicknamed "The Defector" by Paul Sporer and Doug Thorburn. Listening to those two pitching gurus gush over his elite skillset made me giddy, and who doesn't love a sexy strikeout? His harrowing tale of coming to America is even more inspirational, and he not only became a US citizen and learned our language, he made this country a better place with his passion for life and charitable organization. I personally am truly going to miss watching him continue to grow as a pitcher, and I really believed that at one point he was going to be the best pitcher in the game. It's an absolute shame that none of us will be able to enjoy watching him play the game of baseball anymore. Watching Monday's Marlins game against the Mets was the most emotional game I've ever watched in my life, simultaneously touching and heartbreaking. Dee Gordon's home run was one of the most incredible moments that has ever occurred on the diamond. The Mets showed tremendous sportsmanship as well, and it was just incredible to witness how everyone honored him so well. Rest in peace, young man. You will not be forgotten.
Let's talk some ball! Follow me on Twitter @NathanDokken
