Chris Archer (BOS) - After the disaster April that his owner's endured, Chris Archer is likely a curse word in most of their vocabularies. You might want to reconsider that thought process heading into the 2017 draft season. Over the second half, Archer has put together a really strong performance, not far off where he performed during the entire 2015 season. Looking at his ERA, it's easily his worst mark of any season that he has thrown more than 100 innings, but his xFIP tells the story of a pitcher who actually enjoyed the second best season of his career. Since xFIP takes "home run luck" out of the FIP equation by neutralizing the pitcher's actual rate to the league average, Archer received a nice boost after giving up a career high 16.7% HR/FB rate this year. While the hard hit rate is up slightly - just 1% more than 2015 and 2% more than 2014 when he had a career low 6% HR/FB rate - we see the xFIP as a better indicator than his current ERA. For this reason, he can see him as potentially being a sneaky value next year when you'll grab him at a discount even though his second half has been extremely close in performance to his 2015.
Jose Ramirez (CLE) - Jose Ramirez had a huge night on Friday, going 2-for-4 with 3 runs scored and 4 runs batted in on his 44th double of the year and his 11th home run. He also has 75 RBI, 82 runs scored and 22 stolen bases to go along with an incredible .315/.366/.463 line. If you're wondering where this came from, we'll second that motion. Ramirez never showed much power in the minor leagues and even if you look at his hard hit rate this season at 27%, it's still below league average and just barely above his previous two seasons at 24% and 23%. Considering he has a BABIP over 100 points higher than what he had last season on just a 3% boost in hard hit percentage, we're skeptical the batting average will carry into next year. The speed has also been there, and it's not unusual for power to develop late, so it's definitely possible that he can carry that into next season.
Michael Fulmer (DET) - Michael Fulmer continued the Tigers surge on Friday as he pitched a 7-inning gem, striking out 9 while allowing just 1 run. Gary Sanchez has emerged as a legitimate threat to Fulmer's chances of becoming the AL's rookie of the year, but no one can deny the incredible season the right-handed has enjoyed. Fulmer arrived in the majors with very little fanfare or expectations, but his line so far is an excellent 2.95 ERA with 11 wins over 155.2 innings pitched and 129 strikeouts. Fulmer's strikeout rate still has some developing to do, but his 10.2% swinging strike rate certainly suggests some upside. He's going to go in the middle rounds of drafts next spring and is a really strong dynasty option.
Mark Trumbo (BAL) - A late inning surge helped the Orioles get into extra innings and Mark Trumbo took care of the rest with a walk-off homerun in extra innings on Friday. Trumbo now has a major-league leading 44 home runs and is easily one of the highest value returners in all of fantasy baseball. All good things also come with bad, and for Trumbo, that bad is his batting average. With a slash line of .249/.309/.350, he won't be winning any batting titles, but you as a fantasy owner don't care about that as long as he's winning you fantasy titles. Trumbo draws another very favorable matchup tomorrow against the left-handed (and fly ball prone) Robbie Ray. Trumbo is just $3,400.
Brian Dozier (MIN) - Second-half superstar, Brian Dozier, gets a very favorable matchup against Ariel Miranda. Miranda has an ERA about a run lower than his xFIP, but has actually had positive reverse splits this season in a small sample of 40 innings. Nonetheless, Dozier has a .423 wOBA against left-handed pitching with 11 homeruns in just 130 at-bats against southpaws. He looks like a really strong value on FanDuel at $3,800, but his $5,500 price tag on DraftKings is probably appropriately priced.
