Justin Upton
It took him a while, but Upton has finally looked like the guy you were hoping for when you drafted him this season, and if you were able to make it into the playoffs of your league even with Upton, you're actually probably loving his timing. Upton hit his 16th home run since the All-Star break in Game 1 of the Tigers doubleheader Thursday. Upton is still hitting just .237 for the season, but his 26 home runs help to make up for that. With his hot second half, Upton is once again going to draw a bit of pre-season buzz for 2017. "Hey, look at what Upton did in the second half" will flit across your mind as you do draft prep. Don't be so fast to fall for the act, though. Even with the better power in the second half, he is hitting only .240 since the break, and has plenty of holes in his swing. His strikeout rate is sitting at 28.9 percent for the season, fourth-highest among qualified hitters. Of that top four, he has by far the lowest walk rate, resulting in an ugly .301 on-base percentage. As of now, Upton is in a strong lineup, but the Tigers, as a whole, are aging, and that lineup is bound to drop off sooner than later. I'm going to be mighty hesitant if Upton starts to get some sleeper buzz once again in 2017.
Byron Buxton
Buxton continued his success since joining the major league roster once again on September 1. Buxton went 2-for-6 with a home run and two runs Thursday, bringing his slash line to .300/.380/.686 this month, quite the flashy line for the 22-year-old, albeit in a small sample. (Since Buxton proponents all mentioned the small sample size during his struggles, it's only fair to mention the even smaller sample on his success so far.) There are still some red flags, though. Buxton did manage to draw a walk Thursday, but he also struck out four times in the doubleheader, giving him 106 strikeouts to just 18 walks in 2016. Since his September return, those numbers have been a bit better, but still not great, as he has walked five times to 26 strikeouts in 19 games. That being said, the overall season numbers for Buxton may well turn off enough drafters in 2017, that he can drop into the sweet spot around the 16th-18th round, where you can get a guy who could potentially steal you 30 bases with 15 home runs, and have a decent enough average. Buxton will be one of those guys, who you will have to judge based on what the other folks in your league think of him. There's a lot of volatility in how owners will see him heading into 2017.
Sandy Leon
Leon snapped a four-game hitless streak on Thursday, going 1-for-3 with a run scored and an RBI. Leon has slowed down greatly since his red hot July and August, hitting just .242 without a home run in September so far. Leon is a guy who may end 2016 with nice enough stats to trick some folks into drafting him in 2017, but looks like one of the biggest candidates to be a one-year fluke out there. Leon has bounced around from team to team, mostly in the minors, for nearly a decade, and the 27-year-old lacks the pedigree to back up the story of his breakout, even if it is one of the better stories of the season. Leon still has a BABIP of .405, which is bound to plummet in 2017, and projecting him to hit any higher than .270 is reckless. In terms of power, Leon never hit more than six home runs in any minor league season, so it's hard to imagine him reaching double-digits, even if he were given the full-time job behind the plate. I'm avoiding Leon like the plague in 2017, and think he could be one of the biggest busts if drafted next year.
Daily Fantasy Leagues/Streaming options
James Paxton
It's amazing that Paxton is available is basically 80 percent of ESPN leagues right now - he's a very solid option on Friday. Sure Paxton is just 4-7 on the season, but his ERA (3.88) and strikeout rate (8.26 K/9) are solid, and the peripherals are even better. Paxton's FIP (2.91) is elite, ranking seventh among all pitchers with at least 100 innings. His xFIP (3.51) isn't far behind, and he should be helped out by the fact that he'll be in Minnesota Friday, and I don't know if you know Minnesota, but it's not the warmest place in the world. The Twins offense has been only a hair below average since rosters expanded (wRC+ of 98), but there are a lot of exploitable holes, with Paxton looking at a ceiling of 10-12 strikeouts, a real game-changer as a streaming option, or in daily leagues. Paxton is highly recommended.
Francisco Liriano
Liriano has somewhat surprisingly been much better since moving from Pittsburgh in the NL to Toronto in the AL. After posting a 5.46 ERA in 21 starts for the Pirates, his ERA for the Blue Jays is a far superior, 3.89 in eight games (six starts). Liriano has had quality starts in four of those six starts, and has struck out nearly a batter per inning (36 Ks in 37 IP in Toronto). His matchup Friday is the New York Yankees, about as average a lineup as you'll find this season. The Yanks don't strike out a ton, but outside of Gary Sanchez, there's not much to fear. I like Paxton more, but Liriano is also available in over half of ESPN leagues, so take him over someone like Doug Fister or Trevor Bauer.
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