Felix Hernandez
King Felix looked better Wednesday, going seven shutout innings, while only allowing four hits. Of course, because this is 2016, the statline wasn't all good, as he also walked three and only struck out four. I've been pumping the brakes on Felix all year, and I still don't feel great about him heading into 2017. If you took him this year, you've survived, but a 3.61 ERA and just 116 strikeouts (in 144.2 IP) isn't exactly what you were hoping for. Hernandez's metrics have been trending down for a couple seasons now, and while the Mariner ace is "only" 30 years old, that's an old 30. Only four active pitchers have thrown more career innings than Felix, and one of those four is Kyle Lohse. He has more career innings than Justin Verlander, James Shields, Jered Weaver, Adam Wainwright... Do I need to keep going? Felix has seen his strikeout rate drop each of the last four seasons, and his velocity drop each of the last three. His heater is just barely above 90 mph these days, and he'll have to adjust mightily to not being able to blow hitters away anymore. To top all of that, he has the FIP/xFIP kiss of death, as his FIP is over a run higher than his ERA (4.64), with his xFIP only just behind (4.45). You gotta love Felix, but it doesn't mean you have to draft him in 2017.
Masahiro Tanaka
Tanaka had an interesting start Wednesday, going six innings for the win, but allowing four runs on seven hits and two walks. Tanaka had five strikeouts on the day to go with the win, so owners won't be too disappointed. Despite the game taking place in Tropicana, and not Yankee Stadium, all four runs Tanaka gave up came on solo home runs. Tanaka hasn't been burned by home runs for most of the season, even with half his starts coming in the House that Ruth Built, so this should be seen as more of a blip on the radar than anything else. Tanaka has been one of the most pleasant surprises this season, with a record of 13-4 with a 3.07 ERA and 165 strikeouts. Before the season, Tanaka was seen as a bit of a ticking time bomb, as he elected to let his partially torn UCL heal itself, instead of undergoing Tommy John surgery. In a sense, this will once again be a worry again in 2017, but 2016 has done a lot to assuage those worries. Tanaka is younger than you might think, as well, as he is still just 27 years old. Given how drafting pitchers can be a game of injury roulette anyway, you might be able to get Tanaka for slightly cheaper than his actual value peers. He has outperformed his FIP/xFIP throughout his career, so I'm not super worried about the half run difference between his ERA and FIP/xFIP this season. If I were in a league with smart owners, who know the concerns with Tanaka, I think I would draft him because they will likely overvalue those concerns. However, in a league with less intense players, they may overvalue Tanaka's surface statistics, and I'd tend to stay away. Tanaka is an interesting fantasy case, to say the least.
Andrew Benintendi
Benintendi hit his second career home run Wednesday, a three-run blast off of Brad Brach in the sixth inning of the Sox victory over the Orioles. Benintendi has been in the lineup every other day since returning from injury, collecting exactly one hit in each of his four games back, and now has three runs and three RBI in those four games. For his (brief) season as a whole, the 22-year-old is slashing .317/.360/.524, and there is plenty to like. In his 85 plate appearances before Wednesday night, he was sporting a line drive rate of 29.5 percent, with a hard hit ball rate of 35.5 percent. Benintendi reminds me a lot of Christian Yelich, an extremely polished outfield prospect, who should break out sooner than later. The biggest issue for Benintendi may well be playing time in a crowded Red Sox roster. Even with that in consideration, there's too much talent here for Benintendi not to break through to a full time role, and have great success when he gets that chance. I'm in on Benintendi in 2017, for sure.
Brad Miller
Brad Miller has hit 30 home runs in a season. Did you ever think you would be reading that sentence? Especially with half of Miller's games coming in Tropicana? Miller has been one of the biggest surprises in a fantasy season full of pleasant surprises. Miller never hit more than 11 home runs in a season with Seattle, and had been written off as a bust more times than he had a hot meal, it seemed. So is any of this sustainable? Maybe the most amazing part of Miller's 30 home runs, is that 22 have come at home, despite playing in a division where the road stadiums are Yankee Stadium, Rogers Centre, Fenway Park, and Camden Yards - all hitters' havens compared to the Trop. That part seems unlikely to stick, but the regression at home may well be canceled by the friendly road stadiums in the AL East. As far as his batted ball profile goes, Miller has indeed seen nice gains in his pull rate (career: 38.7 percent; 2016: 43.0 percent) and hard hit ball rate (career: 31 percent; 2016: 34 percent), but that's not quite enough to explain the difference. Miller's HR/FB rate (20.9 even before the two Wednesday long balls) is more than double his previous career-high (10.3), another red flag. That being said, Miller is coming into his age-27 prime, when plenty of hitters make big strides. If I had to put a number on his 2017 home runs, I'd say around 25. Not quite the absurd pace from this season, but still plenty enough to have value for a player with multiple positions of eligibility, including shortstop.
Nomar Mazara
It'll be interesting to see what the fantasy baseball world makes of Nomar Mazara in 2017. In a baseball world with so much young talent, it seems like Mazara might be the type to slide a bit under-the-radar. Mazara went 3-for-4 with a run and two RBI Wednesday, bringing his slashes to .277/.329/.436 with 57 runs and 64 RBI to go along with 20 home runs in his rookie season. It's easy to forget that Mazara is just 21 years old, and has a lot of pedigree and success attached to his name in the minor leagues. Mazara has a solid line drive rate (22.9 percent), and if he can make a couple slight adjustments (taking more walks and getting a bit more loft on his swing) could be in for a massive breakout 2017 season. Even as is, he should have a floor of 25 home runs to go with a .285 batting average, pretty strong numbers in a balanced Rangers lineup. Keep an eye for Mazara preseason, as my gut tells me he's going to fly a bit under-the-radar, and outfield is actually one of the shallower positions these days in five outfield leagues. Mazara could be a big boon in 2017.
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