Carlos Rodon (SP, CHW): Rodon had the Twins flailing away early and often, striking out 10 over six innings of work. He allowed three runs (two earned), all in the sixth inning, on three hits and three walks. He came out of the gates with guns blazing, striking out the side in both the first and second innings, showing flashes of brilliance. He would continue to set a new AL record with seven straight K's to begin a game. After a rough first half that had him sitting with a 4.50 ERA heading into the All Star break, Rodon has really rounded into form in the second half and has chiseled his ERA just a hair under four, at 3.98. Perhaps most importantly, however, he has dramatically reduced his walks from last year; they were a real problem for him as a rookie in 2015, issuing 4.59 free passes per nine innings. This year he has cut that number to 2.95, which is perfectly acceptable when you're striking out over a batter per inning. He has also increased the use of his changeup over the second half, going from almost no usage in the first half to around 14% since July. The walks and the development of the changeup were the two big improvements I wanted to see from Rodon this year, and both are slowly coming along. He's got the repertoire to be one of the best pitchers in baseball, and he will once again be a mid-round pick in 2017 that has the potential to deliver a fantastic fantasy season.
Marco Estrada (SP, Tor): Estrada needed 108 pitches to get through five innings against Boston. He held the Red Sox in check successfully though, limiting them to one run on four hits and two walks with four strikeouts. Estrada has been a statistical anomaly through two seasons now, posting obscenely low BABIPs of .216 and now .234. He's done that by inducing a lot of soft contact and pop-ups, two of the pillars of achieving a low BABIP as a pitcher. He has also managed to get a lot of whiffs, with a very nice 11% swinging strike rate that has brought him 165 K's over his 176 innings of work. Estrada has been a late bloomer, and a lot of fantasy players have a hard time washing their memories of his mediocre seasons with the Brewers, which combined with FIPs that are consistently higher than his ERAs, could lead to a reduced price once again come draft day 2017. If the price is right, don't be afraid to bite.
Jonathan Schoop (2B, Bal): Schoop finished 2-5 with his 25th homer of the year and 5 RBI from the eight hole. Known for his power more than anything, Schoop has been overshadowed this year by other middle infielders that have seemingly come out of nowhere to have monster power seasons. In any other year, 25 home runs would be in the running for the top spot among second basemen, but he's tied with Daniel Murphy for fifth, behind Dozier, Cano, Odor, and Kinsler. He was also hitting .304 at the end of the first half, but that was driven by a very unsustainable BABIP, and he has hit only .216 in the second half. Another shortcoming of his game is a complete lack of plate patience, as evidenced by his 3.3% BB%. That has earned him a .297 OBP that ensures he will continue to hit toward the bottom of the order, despite the power in his bat. To finish on a high note, he has managed to trim his strikeout rate by over 3% from a year ago down to 21.3% this year, which is the type of progression you like to see from a 24 year old hitter. He still swings at a LOT of pitches out of the zone though at 43%, leading to a swinging strike rate of 16%, but hey, baby steps. Schoop has 30 home run potential, which is hard to come by from a second baseman, so he won't be a forgotten man in drafts next year. However, ding him bigtime in OBP leagues. OBP may never be a part of his game.
Michael Pineda (SP, NYY): Pineda was a disappointment again in his final start of the regular season, giving up five runs in just four and a third, walking three and striking out five. He gave up two long balls, which has been his Achilles heel this season, averaging 1.38 HR/9. He has managed to stay healthy this year, yet has still been a bummer to own with a 4.82 ERA that's only palatable in AL-Only leagues due to his intense 10.61 K/9. For the second year in a row he has dramatically underperformed when you compare his ERA to his FIP; in 2015 his ERA was 4.37, with a FIP of 3.34. This year, his aforementioned 4.82 ERA comes with a 3.79 FIP. His xFIP has been even better both years, which regresses his HR/FB to league average. At a certain point, what is typically seen as an anomaly changes to a trend, which becomes the norm. He allows too many hard hit balls, which has led to a .339 BABIP, although that still seems pretty high to say it will continue. His 14% swinging strike rate backs up his elite strikeout rate, and those who eye K-BB% will be in on Pineda again next year. He will make a decent gamble depending on the price, but one shouldn't forget about his prior inability to stay healthy, and factor that in with his propensity to blow up frequently.
Daniel Norris (SP, Det): Norris fanned eight Braves, including five in a row at one point, over six and two-thirds innings, allowing only one run on five hits and two walks. He has continued to get better over the second half of the season as he regains his health. This was the deepest he's pitched into a game all year, typically lasting 5-6 innings, but he hasn't had fewer than six strikeouts in a game over any of his five September starts. He has also got the longest streak of starts with three earned runs or fewer in all of the American League, posting 19 in a row. Norris has managed to increase his swinging strike rate quite a bit this year, and it now sits over 10%, which makes the excellent strikeout rate likely to continue. His ERA over his 69.1 innings this year is 3.38, which comes with a scrumptious 9.22 K/9. With his strong finish, he is pushing from sleeper candidate territory into legitimate starter territory, so it's hard at this point to shoot down the notion that he'll be a trendy pick next spring and be overdrafted given how little he's actually pitched for the Tigers. Time will tell, but regardless of that he is looking like a true starter that could eventually be one of the best lefties in the game, and should be held onto tightly in dynasty and deep keeper formats.
There is no offseason in baseball. Tweet me any time @NathanDokken
