Jake Arrieta (SP-CHC): Jake Arrieta allowed five earned runs in 5 2/3 innings, but picked up the win. While the surface stats have looked better in the second half, the underlying indicators tell a different story. Arrieta has been thriving thanks to a .187 BABIP in the second half while posting a pedestrian 21 percent strikeout rate. A less effective slider looks to be the culprit, as it earned a 2.4 pitch value in 2015 compared to a -1.7 mark in 2016. His groundball rate is down and his hard hit rate is up, and the numbers suggest more regression lurks on the horizon. He's still a number one fantasy starter, but until he makes adjustments, he's on the lower-end of the tier.
Hernan Perez (UTIL-MIL): Hernan Perez went 2-for-4 and stole his 22nd base of the season. The Brewers rookie is quietly putting together a solid fantasy season that looks sustainable given the underlying numbers and developing skillset. His 34 percent hard hit rate, batted ball profile, and speed support the elevated BABIP. His 40 percent chase rate and four percent walk rate suggest growing pains lurk, but the Brewers are giving him everyday at-bats to work on his game. He's a must-start option in all formats.
Raisel Iglesias (RP-CIN): Raisel Iglesias picked up his second save of the season in a clean ninth against the Marlins. Iglesias recently voiced his desire to close and the Reds have obliged, giving the young flamethrower time at the back end with Tony Cingrani. Iglesias has posted a 36:13 K:BB ratio through 31 innings pitched since being inserted into the pen for health purposes. He has closer stuff, and while he has some rough edges to work on against lefties and with control, the Reds are likely to give him plenty of looks in the ninth down the stretch.
Jean Segura (2B/SS-ARI): Jean Segura went 2-for-4 with a homer, two RBIs and two runs scored, but the D-backs fell again. Through the tough times in Arizona, Segura has been posting a renaissance season. He now has 11 homers, 24 stolen bases, and a solid .315 AVG. And the peripherals back up the resurgence, as Segura has elevated his hard hit rate by 10 percentage points from 2015 while decreasing his chase rate by five percentage points. He may not be an elite option at shortstop, but as a second tier option, he'll likely be undervalued come draft day.
Bud Norris (P-LAD): Bud Norris, set to return from the DL to face the Reds in Cincinnati, makes for a high-risk/high-reward tournament play at $7300. At $3400, many players may look at Norris's struggles away from Dodger Stadium, add in the risk factor that comes with this questionable back injury, and shy away from him today. But this may create a perfect buying opportunity that will allow you to afford the top bats of the day. Cincinnati is 21st in total offense vs. righties, while Norris brings a solid 22 percent strikeout rate and 30 percent hard hit rate allowed into the contest. Add in the high win potential, and the ingredients are here for a solid upside play.
