Jedd Gyorko
Gyorko has officially found his groove in St. Louis, something that took a little while, but many people thought might be coming. Gyorko went 2-for-4 with his 23rd home run of 2016 Monday, and is now slashing .249/.310/.505 on the season. That OBP/BA duo is pretty heinous, but a SLG over .500 from a second baseman is quite nice in fantasy, even with the position currently deeper than it has been before. With Gyorko, it also looks like he has room to even improve, as his BABIP of .248 is well below average, even his own career BABIP (.271), and well below the projection systems. Gyorko is walking more and striking out less, to boot, and could well see that average get up to around .265 by the end of the season. Buy stock on Gyorko sooner than later.
Jake Arrieta
The Pirates got to Jake Arrieta once again, as Arrieta has looked far more human in the second half of 2016 then he had in the prior year and a half. Arrieta gave up six runs on five hits and three walks, while only striking out three over the course of 6.1 innings, while not factoring in the decision. Arrieta has walked 13 batters in his last three starts, and going even further back, has an ERA of 4.37 over his last 11 starts. That's a very pedestrian figure for a pitcher thought of as an ace. The troubling part is that is doesn't look like bad luck, but rather his incredible success looked a bit lucky. Arrieta has struggled once again with his command, a bugaboo from his pre-Cubs days. And it's easy to spot the problem. Hitters are simply going after less of his pitches outside of the zone. Arrieta is hitting the zone at almost the exact same rate in 2016 (44.6 percent) as 2015 (44.1), in fact a hair higher. But hitters are only offering at pitches outside of the zone 29.5 percent of the time in 2016 (before Monday's start) compared to over 34 percent in Arrieta's magical 2015 campaign. Now Arrieta may be able to adjust and attack the zone more, and with stuff like his, he's should still have success. But as is now, Arrieta hasn't made that adjustment and it's burning him. He's still, obviously, a must start every time out there, but a matchup with the Giants, and not in AT&T Park his next time out looks a little scary.
Jon Gray
After two straight rough starts at Coors, Gray was back to conquering his home demons Monday, going six shutout innings, spreading out four hits and three walks, while striking out eight. Gray now has a home ERA of 4.66, which while not outstanding, is low enough that he should be rostered and not streamed, given that his strikeout rate is over 10.0 batters per nine at home, an elite rate. Choosing which home games to start Gray and which to bench him is a bit like Russian Roulette, but when it pays off like it did Monday, it's worth it. (Unlike Russian Roulette.) It will be interesting to see what owners make of Gray in 2017. On the one hand, he'll still have half his starts in Coors, but he also is among the top ERA-FIP leaders of 2016, and as noted, has elite strikeout stuff. Plus, he's still just 24, and has a nice minor league pedigree, as well. I'm in on Gray, but you still have to pick your spots with him.
Daily Fantasy Leagues
Rich Hill
Despite a start in Colorado on Tuesday, Hill is still recommended. The fact that he is pitching in Coors will drive down the price, but a pitcher with Hill's profile won't be burned as bad as some others by the thin air of Coors Field. One of the biggest parts of Hill's late career turn around has been an increase in his ground ball rate, which, at nearly 50 percent, is among the best in the league. Obviously keeping the ball out of the air is a big component of having success at Coors. So is avoiding having the ball hit hard, which Hill has done as well as anyone this season. His opposing hard hit ball rate of 26.3 percent would rank sixth among starters if he had enough innings. Hill has always been hard to hit hard, as his pitches are most certainly "effectively wild." The very best way to avoid the Coors Effect is to tally punch outs, and with a K/9 rate of 10.21, Hill does that as well as anyone non-Jose Fernandez in baseball. Hill made his return from the DL last week with six shutout innings, and has been an absolute stud this year. Expect that to continue even with a less-than-ideal match up in Coors.
DraftKings: $7,000
Ryan Schimpf
Schimpf has been hot lately, with multiple hits in three of his last four games, and two home runs in that stretch. The Padre rookie second baseman has quietly hit 16 home runs in just 184 at bats, a rate that puts him with the elite second basemen in the game. Schimpf has shown decent pop throughout his minor league career, and had 15 home runs in 190 Triple-A at bats this season before his call up. Schimpf is sporting an impressive 41.9 percent hard hit ball rate, and when combined with a 60.5 percent fly ball rate that would EASILY be the best in the entire major leagues this season if he qualified, and those home runs are no fluke. Schimpf goes up against Matt Wisler and the Braves Tuesday. Wisler is one of the biggest pitch-to-contact pitchers in baseball, and is thus a good matchup for Schimpf, whose biggest weakness is his elevated strikeout rate. I like Schimp Tuesday, as well as in the long run.
DraftKings: $3,800
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