Ervin Santana
While the Twins have irrelevant for the majority of 2016, Santana has quietly put together quite a nice stretch of baseball in the past couple of months. Santana continued that success Sunday, going seven innings, allowing two runs on five hits and a walk, while punching out 10 Royals. That makes six straight starts with two or fewer runs allowed and 11 straight starts with three or fewer runs allowed. In that eleven-start stretch, Santana's ERA is 1.91 and he has a 5-3 record. That's some elite pitching, and Santana is available in over half of ESPN leagues still. One of the biggest factors has been Santana's ability to limit his free passes. In the first half of the season, Santana walked over 2.5 batters per nine, in the second half, that figure has been right around 1.5 batters per nine. Santana has also been the beneficiary of a bit of luck, sporting a left on base rate ten points higher in the second half and an opponent BABIP 30 points lower. Interestingly, his batted ball profile allowed looks much the same in the first and second halves, so the biggest actual change has been the command. The real Santana is likely somewhere in between the first half (4.06 ERA) and second half (1.99), but even if that means an ERA around 3.20, there's a ton of value in that, especially in 12 or 14 team leagues, where it looks like Santana may well still be available. That being said, his next start is in Toronto, so be hesitant there. That start may be enough to have some owners drop Santana, so scoop him up afterwards and play him in most match ups going forward.
Eric Hosmer
After a very cold stretch from the middle of June to the middle of August, Hosmer is starting to make his owners feel a bit better about the player they drafted with hopes of a breakout in 2016. Hosmer slashed just .218/.272/.298 over that 57-game stretch in the middle of the season, but given the good equity he built up with a beast start to the year, his year-to-date numbers are still about what you'd expect. Hosmer is now slashing .277/.334/.438 for the season as a whole, and has been heating up in the past week. That line is with the benefit of three multi-hit games in his past six, with an RBI in each of those games and a pair of home runs. Hosmer is an interesting case when taking the wide lens, however. A player who seemed poised for a breakout this year, his home runs have taken a small step forward, but that is despite an increase in ground ball rate. Hosmer is still a hitter who hits fly balls just 24 percent of his at bats. It's hard to have elite first base power with such a low fly ball rate. That fly ball rate is 11th-lowest among among qualified hitters, surrounded by names like Adam Eaton, Denard Span and Erick Aybar. That's quite worrisome, and it's been true of Hosmer his entire career. Personally, I'm taking my foot of the gas a bit on the Eric Hosmer stock, to mix metaphors, and might look in another direction in keeper leagues, even though I was quite high on him before the season.
Chad Green
Chad Green had another strong start Sunday, his second nice start of the week, following up his studly six inning, two-hit, 11-strikeout dominant effort over the loaded Blue Jays with six innings of one-run ball against the Angels. Green took the loss, but only gave up five hits and a walk, while striking out five in addition to the one run allowed. The Yankee rookie was dominant out of the bullpen this season, and now seems to be making steps in the right direction as a starter. Green is still just 25 years old, and despite a very low profile while in the minors, has the advanced metrics to back his recent success. First of all, his strikeout rate is elite, as he has 45 strikeouts in just 39.1 innings, good for a 10.3 K/9 rate. That rate is not due merely to his bullpen work either, as he has 37 Ks in 30 IP as a starter. Green's biggest bugaboo has been the home run, which explains the huge gap between his FIP (4.34) and xFIP (3.11). Interestingly enough, it hasn't been the friendly confines of Yankee Stadium that have done Green in, as seven of the eight home runs he has allowed this year have come on the road. Given that Green had elite strikeout rates throughout the minors, I'd lean towards the xFIP more so than the FIP. Green's next start is in Yankee Stadium against the Orioles, though, so I might add him and just sit him for that match up.
Todd Frazier
Frazier went 3-for-4 with two RBI and a steal on Sunday, a rather non-Todd Frazier type day. This was only the third three-hit game of the season for Frazier and the first in which he didn't have multiple extra-base hits. A two-single game for Frazier is a borderline rarity, this was somewhat incredibly just his fourth of the entire year. And that has been the biggest knock on Frazier this year. He is hitting just .212 on the season, the lowest figure among qualified hitters this season. That's a massive drag on a fantasy team, and when he's not hitting home runs (31) or stealing bases (10), Frazier just kills you with a series of 0-for-3 and 0-for-4 nights. At first blush that appears to be simply a result of a dreadful .213 BABIP that is also bottom of the league, by nearly 30 points. And that is certainly part of it, but Frazier has also seen the bottom drop out of his line drive rate, going from 21.7 percent in 2014 to 14.0 percent this season. Frazier is also sporting a hard hit ball rate more in range with his first couple seasons in the league than his best years. Frazier is also popping the ball up more than ever, as well as sporting his highest strikeout rate of his career. Frazier is certainly bound to see his BA creep up a bit in 2016, but don't be surprised if it doesn't jump nearly as much as one might expect. The long-term prognostication on Frazier isn't great right now.
Melvin Upton
Upton hit his third home run in four games, finishing Sunday's game 1-for-4 with the solo blast. Upton has hit just .208 since his move to the Blue Jays, but seems to be finding his stride a bit more in the last week or so. Along with those home runs, Upton has three multi-hit games in his past seven games, and is finding his way into the starting lineup each night. Upton can be a streaky hitter, so if you're in the playoff chase, and are looking for a wild card on the free agent wire who could blow up and carry you into the final spot in your postseason, Upton may be that guy. Of course, he also carries the risk of posting some ugly, 0-for-5 type nights, but that's what you get with a high-risk, high-reward guy like Melvin.
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