Max Kepler (OF, Min): Kepler continued his assault on Major League Baseball with a smash and a dash, hitting his 15th home run of the season and stealing his third base. He would finish 1-2 with three walks, three runs scored and two RBI. Kepler is now hitting .375 with two triples, five home runs, 10 RBI and a .444 OBP in his last 11 games. Since being recalled on June first, he also leads all rookies in baseball with 14 home runs and 44 RBI, is tied for second in doubles (11) and walks (21) and is third in runs scored (31) and slugging percentage (.560). This comes just one day after Kepler became the fifth Twins player ever to homer three times in a game. At 23 years old this is looking like a true breakout player who should hit for power, control the strike zone, and get on base. It's hard to imagine him keeping up a .302 ISO, but he's making hard contact over 40% of the time and has flashed future power potential throughout the minor leagues. He is here to stay, so while you could sell high on him, he should provide plenty of value over the final third of the season.
Carlos Carrasco (SP, Cle): Carrasco was beat up by the Twins, allowing eight runs on nine hits in three and two-thirds innings, walking two and striking out only one batter. He clearly didn't have his stuff going in this one, but his velocity was fine and he was getting whiffs on his fastball (12.9% on his 4-seam) so this looks like a blip on the radar in what should have been a plus matchup. Overall it's been a bit of a down year for Carrasco as he's seen his K/9 drop from 10.58 to 8.21 from a year ago and is getting fewer swinging strikes. You've got to look at his FIP and be concerned as well, as he sits at a 3.12 ERA but a 4.30 FIP. That's based on his very fortunate .247 BABIP on the season, as well as his 81.4% strand rate, which is also very high for a starter. It's hard to call him an ace pitcher when he's not even recording a strikeout per inning, and with other regression looming as well, it would be wise to tap the brakes on your expectations for him down the stretch. You could be looking at #3 starter numbers rather than borderline #1/#2 numbers you paid for in drafts. He'll have another solid matchup with the Yankees in his next turn.
Yu Darvish (SP, Tex): Darvish had another exciting start, punching out nine batters across six and a third innings of work against the Orioles. He gave up three runs, all solo homers, and walked only one. Typically control and command is the last thing that returns to pitchers who are recovering from Tommy John surgery, but Darvish has actually managed to post the lowest walk rate of his career. The caveat being that it's only a 38.1 inning sample size, but still, that's very encouraging for his outlook. He's also sitting with a career-best strikeout rate, which sits at an elite 12.68 K/9 after this start. There will undoubtedly be some bumps in the road, but overall his starts have been obscenely positive since coming off the DL. Trot him out with confidence for his next start against the whiff-happy Astros on Sunday.
Dylan Bundy (SP/RP, Bal): Bundy dominated the Rangers, giving up only one hit across seven shutout innings with one walk and seven strikeouts. He notched another win on his belt as well, his fourth on the season. This was the deepest he's pitched into a game this season, although that's not saying too much considering this was only his fourth start upon transitioning from a reliever. His stuff is as good as ever, and he's very capable of putting up lines like this as the season winds down, although obviously not quite to this extent. His elite stuff can continue to nab him a strikeout per innings, and his command is coming along as well, now sitting at a 2.59 BB/9. He's a truly exciting pitcher, and needs to be owned in all leagues. He'll keep getting stretched out and should approach the 100 pitches per start territory (88 in this one) mak
Jose Bautista (OF, Tor): Bautista's bat has awoken, and he hit a rocket that left the field and would serve as the 300th home run of his career. He finished the day 2-4, and despite his typically outstanding plate discipline, Bautista has actually failed to impress this year. Granted he missed a month with his toe injury, his .225 ISO is the lowest he's posted since 2009. His .221 average has also been extremely detrimental for standard roto leaguers, although that's a number that should rise in the coming months. He's still hitting the ball just about as hard as ever, with a 36.9% hard contact rate, and his pull-heavy fly ball approach hasn't changed, lending to the belief that his power should tick up again as well. He's always been a low BABIP player (career .265 BABIP) and his current .230 mark is low even by his standards. As long as his toe continues to heal and doesn't bother him, we should see vintage Bautista down the stretch.
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