Rougned Odor
Odor has had quite an interesting 2016. On the one hand, he has 22 home runs, 11 steals, 130 RuBIns, and a .281 batting average - it's been a breakout year, and he is still just 22 years old. On the other hand, he has a 2.4 percent walk rate, has struck out more than eight times as frequently as he has walked, and has the 10th highest swing rate on pitches out of the zone, among qualified hitters - these are some severe red flags. The power is legitimate, as a HR/FB rate just north of 15.0% is hardly out of the ordinary, especially for a hitter sporting a 36.0 percent hard hit ball rate, but I'd expect the batting average to plummet in seasons to come. Unless Odor makes some serious strides at the plate, he's in danger of becoming Ian Desmond 2.0, not the worst option for fantasy baseball players, but not nearly the level he's going to be hyped at next year preseason.
Mark Trumbo
Despite hitting only his second home run since July 23, Trumbo still leads the majors with 32 home runs thanks to a long ball on Thursday. It was part of a massive day for Trumbo, as he went 2-for-4 with two runs and five RBI on the night. The league lead in home runs speaks to the ridiculous start to the season that Trumbo had, because he has been leaving the yard at a much more reasonable pace in the last couple months. In his last 56 games, he has 12 home runs. That's good for a 35-home run pace, but not the world beating season he's having in 2016. Trumbo is now two home runs off of his career high that he set back in 2013 with the Angels. Raw power has never been an issue for Trumbo, it's been making contact. Interestingly enough, Trumbo's contact rate is actually lower than his career rate, and the rest of his plate discipline profile doesn't suggest any big changes either. His strikeout rate is a bit above his career rate, and the batted ball profile doesn't show much change either. He's pulling the ball a bit more (44.2 percent in 2016, up from 38.8 percent for his career) and hitting it a bit harder (38.5 percent hard hit ball rate in 2016, up from 34.5 percent for his career), but honestly, Trumbo seems like a prime candidate to get overdrafted in 2017. I'm not saying a complete collapse is a lock, but something like the struggles his teammate, Chris Davis, is having is a distinct possibility.
Pedro Alvarez
Fantasy owners are starting to catch on to Pedro Alvarez, and it's a bit surprising it has taken this long, given that the slugger is hitting home runs at a higher rate than any other season of his career. Alvarez has 18 long balls in just 276 plate appearances, and added a 2-for-4 day with three RBI on Thursday. Alvarez is hitting .258, right around the rate you can reasonably hope for when you add the 29-year-old lefty. The move from PNC Park to Camden Yards (talk about playing your career in a pair of gorgeous stadiums) seems to be helping Alvarez who still hits a few more ground balls than a power hitter should (49.7 percent ground ball rate), but can sport a lofty HR/FB rate thanks to his raw power, and ability to pull the ball (47.5 percent pull rate) and pull it hard (38.7 percent hard hit ball rate). Alvarez is still available in nearly three-quarters of all ESPN leagues, but should really be owned by any owner lacking power in leagues as shallow as even ten teams. Alvarez could easily hit 10 home runs the rest of the way, maybe even a dozen. That's not an exaggeration either, he's hit nine since July 15.
Miguel Sano
After a day off, Sano played in one of the Twins two games on Thursday. Sano is supposedly being bothered by his right elbow, but don't tell that to his bat, which is 10-for-25 in his last six games with four home runs, five runs and seven RBI. Sano has been a bit of a disappointment for owners in 2016, but that may be due to the hype surrounding the 23-year-old more than anything else. Sano basically missed the month of June, but in 31 games since, has hit .270 with eight home runs. In fact, his slash line of .270/.343./524 looks remarkably similar to his rookie campaign of .269/.385/.530. Expecting the youngster to make a massive leap forward was a lot to put on his shoulders, as well as all the pundits calling for him as a trendy player to lead the league in home runs. That being said, a breakout is likely coming at some point for Sano. Sano is, once again, mashing the ball, sporting a 41.9 hard hit ball rate, and if anything, has been a bit unlucky with his BA. It would be nice to see him start drawing walks at the rate he was his rookie season, especially since the strikeout rate hasn't really dropped, but that's about the only flaw for Sano. With the Twins hopefully abandoning the "Sano in the outfield" experiment, expect a full season of production about in line with the last month for Sano, in 2017. And that's as his floor.
Danny Duffy
Duffy got the complete game victory Thursday night, making it four times in his past nine starts that he has pitched at least eight innings. In each of those starts, Duffy went at least six, and in seven of those he allowed two or fewer runs. Thursday saw seven hits, one run, and a 6:0 strikeout to walk rate, a continuation of just an excellent run from the Royal lefty. Duffy has made massive strides in 2016, bringing his K/9 up from 6.72 to 10.30 and lowering his ERA from 4.08 to 2.92. (He has also improved from 7-8 to 9-1, which matters a lot more in the fantasy world than the analytical world.) Interestingly, the batted ball profile doesn't show much in terms of why. His ground ball rate is down and his hard hit ball rate is up - not great signs. However, the reason that hasn't mattered is that Duffy is simply not letting batters make that contact. His 14.1 percent swinging strike rate (before Thursday night) is sixth in the majors, and his contact rate in general has plummeted in 2016, from over 80 percent to 72.7 percent. That has the look of a pitcher whose stuff is simply better than before, and isn't relying on some fluky batted ball luck. I'm buying Duffy for the long term.
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