Joe Ross (SP-WAS): Joe Ross allowed 4 earned runs on 10 hits in 5 and 1/3 innings against the Reds. The super sophomore continues to struggle and his 3.93 xFIP suggests more regression could be on the way. Despite an 11% swinging-strike rate, Ross has only posted a 20% K-rate. His velocity has been inconsistent, and it dipped significantly as the game progressed. Pair that with his dwindling first-pitch strike rate, and it leads me to believe Ross is struggling with a mechanical/physical issue. With Dusty at the helm and Giolito looming, Ross is suddenly a risky play for next week. Bench and hold.
Addison Reed (RP-NYM): Addison Reed struck out 4 of the 5 batters he faced to pick up his 17th hold of what has quietly been a renaissance season. His 30% K-rate and 6% BB-rate put him into elite RP territory, and his career-high 45% BB-rate has enabled him to escape what little trouble he has found. The key to his rebirth has been the 71% first-pitch-strike rate. Look for him to parlay this season into a new contract, one that could vault him into the closer role for another team in 2017.
Cesar Hernandez (2B-PHI): Cesar Hernandez collected 2 hits to give him 12 in his last 5 games. Although he's carrying a .299 wOBA and an 83 wRC+ heading into Sunday, the Phillies are likely going to stick with him to see what they've got for 2017. His 21% hard hit rate limits his upside, but he hits the ball on the ground and has above average speed, which will likely keep his average above .270. All fantasy leagues are speed-starved, and I envision Hernandez attempting more steals in the second half and honing his craft on the basepaths. Deep leaguers should scoop him up.
Wellington Castillo (C-ARI): Despite losing significant AB's to Chris Herrmann, Wellington Castillo continues to produce. He hit his 10th homer of the season and drove in 4 runs as part of a 2-for-4 night against the Giants. He now carries an impressive 38% hard hit rate. Although his batted ball speed numbers are hovering around league average, his high pull rate combined with his home ballpark should help to sustain his current HR/FB rate. If he played 5-6 days per week, he'd post top 4 catcher numbers, but thanks to Chip Hale's tendencies to move guys in and out of the lineup, he's a borderline top-10.
Anthony Rendon (2B-WAS): Anthony Rendon, who is priced at $2800 on FanDuel, looks like a solid value play for his matchup against John Lamb at home. Rendon has posted a 14:12 BB:K ratio and a .372 wOBA against lefties. John Lamb has posted a .354 wOBA and a 35% hard hit rate against righties, and he's been especially bad on the road, where he's allowed a .380 wOBA and a 39% hard hit rate. Rendon's horrific first month in which he posted an 89 wRC+ has held down his overall line and has likely kept his price so low, but look for that to change in the second half.
