Aaron Nola
Nola returned to form Monday, going six shutout innings, while only allowing two hits and striking out five compared to just one walk. Nola was getting absolutely rocked in his five starts before the All-Star break, getting hit to the tune of a 13.50 (!) in 18.0 innings. Monday's start was a great sign for a pitcher who owned a 2.65 ERA before that brutal stretch, and still sports a 2.95 xFIP (and 3.11 FIP). This is a great time to buy on Nola. The 4.41 ERA that he still sports will scare off most potential owners, but you - the smart fantasy player - should snag Nola either as soon as possible, or before his next start. Nola goes against the Pirates in Pittsburgh on Saturday, and should be on rosters by that point. The bullpen cost Nola a win Monday, and he is just 5-8 for the lowly Phillies, but his strong strikeout rate (9.79 per nine), and good control mean he should be back to the level we saw to start the season sooner than later.
Martin Prado
Martin Prado is now hitting .320 on the season, and while he is slugging just .419, that BA carries a ton of value in fantasy. Prado added a home run Monday, but it was just his third of the season. Prado has just one steal and 72 RuBIns, so while the BA is great, that's by far his biggest contribution. Prado is a career .293 hitter, so this isn't too surprising, and not too far over his head. The .354 BABIP is a bit higher than his career rate (.315), but not screaming regression. However, if that average drops to even .300 or .290, that takes out a lot of Prado's value, given that his batting average has been his life's blood this season. Because of the slightly elevated BABIP, and the fact that his value is tied so closely to that figure staying elevated, I'm not buying on Prado in most leagues.
Matt Kemp
Kemp was one of the trendier preseason suggestions from myself and many others. While Kemp hit his 19th home run on Monday, the season as a whole production has been rather disappointing. Kemp is hitting just .255 with a terrible .276 on-base percentage. Kemp doesn't have a single steal, and although the RBI and HR totals are nice, he hasn't quite been the bounceback candidate that the second half of 2015 would have suggested. One of the biggest things for Kemp in 2014 and 2015 was his hard hit ball rate, which topped 40 percent in both seasons, peaking at 41.6 percent last year. That figure has come down to 34.6 percent this season, which, while still strong, isn't elite anymore. The pull rate and fly ball rate are both up a bit, which is why the home runs have returned, but the line drive rate is basically a career low, and the days of expecting a .280 batting average from Kemp are over. The walk rate is also down for the third straight season, a troubling trend that costs him not only in OBP leagues, but in terms of his runs scored and stolen base opportunities. (Although he has amazingly not even attempted a steal after 12 successful thefts in 2015.) Kemp has been pretty pedestrian in 2016, and there isn't a ton to suggest anything else moving forward.
Daily Fantasy Leagues
Tommy Joseph
Joseph returned to the lineup with a bang on Monday, hitting his 12th home run of the 2016 season. Joseph had back-to-back games off, but now has homered in three of his last six games. Joseph is slugging .525 in his 169 plate appearances in 2016, with power he flashed in the early minor leagues, but hadn't shown in his last few minor league seasons. The long-term prognostication might see Joseph slow from his current power pace, but right now he is absolutely killing the ball. His hard hit ball rate is coming in at 39.2 percent before Monday's game, and he has a strong fly ball rate to support the high home run rate. Jose Urena, the Marlins start for Tuesday, is one of the better targets to select, so Phillies hitters will be good options for points. Joseph offers good bang for buck, just make sure he's in the starting lineup.
DraftKings: $3,900
Curtis Granderson
Any player going against Jake Arrieta might seem like a dumb play in daily leagues, but Granderson is swinging a hot stick, and has had plenty of success off the Cubs ace in his career. In 30 at bats in his career, Granderson has 10 hits, three of them clearing the fence with nine RBI and a steal. However, because of Arrieta's reputation, Granderson is a reasonable price Tuesday, below plenty of less flashy names. The Grandy Man is also swinging a sweet stick in 2016, and the past couple weeks in particular. In his past dozen games, Grandy has four multi-hit games to go along with three home runs and a steal. Granderson has 16 home runs on the season, and despite the low batting average is a productive points player.
DraftKings: $4,300
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