Michael Wacha (SP-STL): The Giants roughed up Michael Wacha to the tune of 4 earned runs on 6 hits and 2 walks in 5 innings, but the Cardinal bats took him off the hook for a no-decision. Wacha has endured misfortune in 2016 posting 59% strand rate and a .343 BABIP. While he's due for some positive regression, he is pitching with diminished stuff as evidenced by his 7% swinging strike rate, his 26% chase rate, and his 56% first pitch strike percentage. Perhaps he hasn't recovered from his arm troubles from 2015--a possibility alluded to by the 1.5 MPH dip in his AVG fastball velocity--but whatever the case may be, proceed with caution and don't expect significant positive regression.
Brandon Moss (1B/OF-STL): Brandon Moss went 3 for 4, hitting his 11th homer of what has been a resurgent 2016. After posting a .308 wOBA with a 94 wRC+ in 2015, Moss is carrying marks of .360 and 127 respectively this season, which are more in line with his career norms. His BABIP is 20 points lower than his career norm despite a 40% hard hit rate, so look for the average to climb in the second half. With elite speed off bat numbers as well, look for him to maintain his 25+ homer pace. The only issue with Moss is playing time, so those with weekly lineup locks are advised to monitor the number of lefties on tap in a given week.
Trayce Thompson (OF-LAD): Trayce Thompson walked 3 times and stole 3 bases batting out of the 5-hole against Andrew Cashner. Thompson was receiving the bulk of the AB's before Puig went to the DL, but with the troubled defector on the shelf, Thompson should see everyday AB's in the middle of the Dodgers lineup. He is carrying a .392 wOBA and a 151 wRC+ through 133 plate appearance. While I'm buying Thompson in all mixed leagues, be careful about paying for his current HR pace, as we should see significant regression in his 32% HR/FB rate given his below-average speed off bat numbers.
James Shields (SP-SD, now CHW): Before defeating the Rockies the Padres traded James Shields to the White Sox for Erik Johnson and Fernando Tatis, Jr. While this will put him in a position to win more games, the more hitter-friendly environments and tougher lineups of the AL should pressure his ERA and WHIP, thus lowering his overall value slightly. Shields has witnessed his walk and hard hit rates spike the past two seasons, while his K-rate has now dipped to the 20% range thanks to an average fastball of 90 MPH. Be careful.
Javier Baez (INF-CHC): Javier Baez has crushed lefties during his limited work the past 2 seasons, posting a .480 wOBA. With a matchup on tap against Patrick Corbin, Baez makes for a great value play at $2700 (FanDuel). Corbin has allowed 10 homers and a .363 wOBA against righties so far while striking out only 27 in 51 innings. While Joe Maddon remains unpredictable with his lineup construction, look for him to roll with Baez in a prime run producing spot.
FanDuel Value Plays:
Tanner Roark ($8300)
Jon Gray ($7000)
Odubel Herrera ($3500)
Matt Holliday ($3100)
Brandon Crawford ($3100)
Maikel Franco ($3100)
Brandon Moss ($2900)
Cesar Hernandez ($2700)
Ben Revere ($2500)
Cody Asche ($2000)
