Max Kepler (OF, Min): Kepler hit his first Major League home run and it was a big one, a walk-off three run shot that took down the Red Sox. It was his only hit of the night as he finished 1-5 with the 3 RBI and two strikeouts. He's struggled this year in his first taste of the Majors, striking out 31.5% of his plate appearances. That's led to his paltry .208/.296/.354 slash, but his 11.1% walk rate is impressive for a 23 year old rookie. He does have a tasty 39.3% hard contact rate which is a very positive sign, and his 9.1% swinging strike rate is actually slightly better than league average. He's got a better than average chase rate as well, and these numbers not only back up his strong walk rate, but they indicate that his strikeout rate should decrease as the season wears on and his batting average should rise. His solid-to-plus defense will help him garner playing time throughout his career, and with a nice power/speed skillset, he's shaping up to be a nice future outfielder that's currently flying way under the radar. He's still just a deep league player for now, but keep a close eye on him.
Michael Fulmer (SP, Det): Fulmer continued his string of dominant starts against the Yankees, throwing another six shutout frames, allowing only two hits and three walks with three strikeouts. He's now thrown 28 and one-third consecutive scoreless innings and is 7-1 in his nine starts this season. The development of his changeup has been the lynchpin to his success, and he's since emerged as a must-own player in all formats. He's been fortunate with a .262 BABIP and has stranded 83.9% of baserunners, numbers which are unsustainable over the long haul, so his true ERA will likely wind up somewhere in the mid-threes rather than the 2.52 range he sits at now. Even with a forecast of regression, he's a solid own in all formats for the remainder of the season. He'll head to Kansas City to take on the Royals in his next start.
Carlos Santana (1B, Cle): Carlos Santana didn't need Rob Thomas to have a smooth night at the plate as he went 2-5 with two home runs against the Angels, scoring twice and driving in three. For the most part we've seen the same old Santana we've become accustomed to this year, with a near even 36 walks to 35 strikeouts, a bad batting average of .231, but an OBP more than 100 points higher at .335. The strikeout and walk percentages are both down a bit from recent seasons, and his .214 ISO is the highest he's posted since 2011 when he hit 27 home runs. He'll see plenty of R/RBI opportunities hitting at or near the top of the surprisingly potent Indians lineup, and for those who own him in standard batting average roto leagues, his .225 BABIP should regress upward towards his career .267 mark, leading to perhaps even a little more value from him for the remainder of the season. He takes on a struggling Edinson Volquez on Monday at Kauffman Stadium. Santana has a .359 wOBA against righties this season, making him a solid play for a bargain price of $3,600 on Draft Kings.
Dallas Keuchel (SP, Hou): Keuchel contributed another clunker to his fantasy owners, giving up five runs (four earned) in only five innings, taking his ninth loss of the season. He allowed five hits, none of them home runs, walking only two and striking out nine. The K:BB ratio is encouraging, as is the fact that he didn't give up a home run to one of the most homer-happy teams in baseball (yes, the Rays, surprisingly enough), but in the end the results just aren't there. His ERA is still at 5.54 on the season, though his FIP (3.81) and xFIP (3.37) continue to indicate he's been very unfortunate. His hard contact rate is way up (30.2%, up from 19.7% and 21.3% the past two years, respectively) and that's led to an elevated .339 BABIP. You would still think that's a number that should fall substantially, given his extreme ground ball rate of 58.6%. The Rays are actually a tough matchup for left-handed pitchers, so Keuchel owners should hang on just a little longer in hopes of a rebound. He'll take on the Reds at home his next time out.
Carlos Rodon (SP, ChW): Rodon turned in a quality start on Sunday against the Royals, giving up two runs on seven hits with two walks and seven K's in six innings of work. He took the loss despite his solid start, falling to 2-6 on the season. Despite improving his walk rate from last year (down 1.21 BB/9 from last season) his HR/9 has nearly doubled, to 1.30, and his ERA has risen as well, to 4.28 after this start. He's had a pretty awful 14.3% HR/FB rate this season, so there's hope that some homer regression will occur and he'll be able to lower his ERA further. He threw only 5 changeups in the start though, and he simply doesn't have any confidence in that pitch yet. Until he can make that an pitch an effective one, his ceiling is limited. He'll take on the Indians in Cleveland in his next start.
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