Daniel Murphy- 2B- WAS- Idea- Murphy hit 13 of his 14 homers last year against RH pitching and posted a .290/.334/.483 slash line against them. All 4 of his homers in 2016 have come against RH pitching. John Lackey allowed 12 homers in 94.1 IP against LH hitters in 2015. This combination gives Murphy a good shot at continuing his crazy hot start. Value play- Draft Kings salary $4100
Matt Carpenter- 3B- STL- Hot- Some regression to the mean may be kicking in for Carpenter. He went 2-for-4 yesterday and his average increased 10 points from .230 to .240 while his BABIP went up 12 points from .274 to .286. Given that his career mark is .331 there is plenty of room for more positive movement. Carpenter presents a buy low opportunity.
Jerad Eickhoff- P- PHI- Cold- Although Eickhoff managed to barely put together a quality start (3 ER in 6 IP) it wasn't very impressive. He allowed 6 hits and walked 2 while only striking out 2 batters. Eickhoff's K/9 dropped from 9.49 to 8.42. He struck out 4 in 6 IP in his last start after a span of 3 starts where he collected 9 Ks twice and 7 the other time. If Eickhoff doesn't bounce back in his next start this may be more than an aberration.
Paul Goldschmidt- 1B- ARI- Cold- Goldschmidt went 0-for-4 with 2 Ks yesterday, continuing a slow start to the season. He had been in the top three on many preseason draft lists but hasn't lived up to that so far with a .232 average although he does have 6 homers. Goldschmidt's Batting EYE is a very good 0.90, an improvement over his 0.78 of 2015. Part of Goldschmidt's troubles can be attributed to bad luck, with a .270 BABIP, well below his career .352 mark. That's not the entire problem, though. His GB% has risen from 41.6% in 2015 to 52.2% this year while in a related move his FB% dropped from 35.0% to 26.9%. Goldschmidt also is not offering at as many pitches as his Swing% has gone down from 39.4% to 34.8%. Although pitchers aren't challenging him as much right off (with a First Strike % dropping to 51.6% from 54.6%) they are putting more pitches in the zone overall (up from 43.4% to 45.1%.) It appears that in addition to regression to the mean Goldschmidt needs to swing more and get the ball in the air in order to have a shot at his projected .305 average.
Martin Prado- OF- MIA- Stats- Prado was projected to hit .279 with 10 homers this season. He has far exceeded the average, currently at .374. That has been propped up by a .410 BABIP. Prado has yet to hit a homer this season, though. His GB% has increased from 46.8% to 55.7% while his FB% has dropped from 30.0% to 21.5%. Put these facts together and Prado is in the sell high category.
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